I said : >> 2011 is going to be very interesting. I predict two clear winners >> > will emerge: iOs and Android.
Cedric said: > Everybody agrees that Apple will reign supreme in profitability, but that's > about it. In market share, Apple is headed for a solid #3 / #4 place in the > next few years and Android #2 or even #1. Very soon, Android and Apple won't > even be in the same league and Apple's position will depend on whether they > can beat RIM and/or Microsoft. When I said two clear winners, I meant market share. As a developer or consumer, why should I care is Apple is making the most profit? Everyone keeps bringing up Apple's profit, but I see it as largely irrelevant except it shows that Apple could cut prices if they want. Microsoft is just a blip now. From a consumer perspective, why would you buy Windows Phone 7 vs an Android (or iOS)? More apps, more mature ecosystem for Android. Microsoft hasn't really provided a compelling case for the existence of WP7 IMO. The trend for blackberry and Nokia is clear, both iOS and Android are an pace to or already surpass both depending on the market. And Blackberry doesn't appear to have a migration to QNX until 2012. Too late IMO. Nokia? heh, they don't even appear to have a plan. I'm not sure who will be the #1 smartphone OS at end of year. My guess is Android will pass Nokia worldwide and iPhone will be #1 OS in the US (with the Verizon iPhone). Check out this report from Nielson: http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9203040/Android_tops_iPhone_among_recent_buyers_says_Nielsen?taxonomyId=15 This shows recent buyers (November 2010) in the US show 40.8% (huge upward trend) are picking android, 26.9% are picking iPhone (flat trend), 19.2% are picking Blackberry (sharp downward trend). The reason I think iPhone will beat Android in the US for 2011 is Verizon. Apple will more than double their addressable market with Verizon. And this will directly take away from Android. I predict iPhone will instantly surpass Android starting whatever date the iPhone is available on Verizon. Lastly, I keep seeing people point out how iPhone is just one among many models. The implication is that Apple can't continue to have high market share because it only sells one expensive "one size fits all" phone. A few points: 1) the iPhone 4's cost is very similar to equivalent Android phones. 2) there is a cheap model, it's called the iPhone 3GS and sells for $99 (and as low as $49 on sales) 3) there are advantages to selling one model. Apple orders monstrous volumes of all their parts so they get them cheaper. This allows Apple to sell very high end hardware for competitive prices and still preserve Apple's insane margins. Insane margins allow Apple to have high R&D expenses and develop very impressive products. One (or two) models also allows for a very impressive accessories market. iPhone users have many more case designs and aftermarket products to choose from simply because the vendors only have 1 or 2 form factors to target. Fragmentation: apps are consistent and high quality because there aren't as many options to develop for and test against as Android. From a consumer standpoint, it seems that iPhones are everywhere. This is free advertising. There are cons too, just pointing out some pros. Feel free to point out my predictions and call BS if I'm wrong. I'm just making educated guesses like everyone else.... It's kind of funny how everyone is a mobile analyst these days :) 2011/1/8 Cédric Beust ♔ <[email protected]>: > > > On Fri, Jan 7, 2011 at 4:50 AM, Vince O'Sullivan <[email protected]> > wrote: >> >> > 2011 is going to be very interesting. I predict two clear winners >> > will emerge: iOs and Android. >> >> I almost agree, except that I think that there will be only one clear >> winner - Apple - and one second place - Android. > > Depends in what category. > Everybody agrees that Apple will reign supreme in profitability, but that's > about it. In market share, Apple is headed for a solid #3 / #4 place in the > next few years and Android #2 or even #1. Very soon, Android and Apple won't > even be in the same league and Apple's position will depend on whether they > can beat RIM and/or Microsoft. > > -- > Cédric > > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "The Java Posse" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected]. > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/javaposse?hl=en. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "The Java Posse" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/javaposse?hl=en.
