So you are arguing that smart-phones will become (or are) a commodity. Not everything turns into a commodity.
Software in general isn't really a commodity. Despite what MBAs might think, developers aren't commodities. DVD players, laptop memory, hard drives are largely commodities. So is a smart-phone more like Microsoft Windows or more like a DVD Player? On Sat, Jan 8, 2011 at 3:30 AM, Kirk <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Depends in what category. >> >> Everybody agrees that Apple will reign supreme in profitability, but that's >> about it. In market share, Apple is headed for a solid #3 / #4 place in the >> next few years and Android #2 or even #1. Very soon, Android and Apple won't >> even be in the same league and Apple's position will depend on whether they >> can beat RIM and/or Microsoft. > > I think it's worse than that. Apple has a nice solid position right now but > the market is about to becomes flooded with custom branded Android devices. > They will complete on price and features. As individuals, you might argue > that nothing beats Apple in user experience. I might counter that HTC's > version of Android is good enough because of a better price point. And maybe > Vince is all gaga over Samsung's branding of Android for some other seemingly > random reason. In a broader population this trend will tend to some > distribution. Using breakfast cereal economics, market share's should tend > towards about an equal share for everyone. Note that in this model, Apple > comes to the table with 1 device which means they get 1 slice of that market > where as Android devices are going to chew up quite a few slices and Windows > 7 phones will chew a few more market slices and so on... Maybe Apple's slice > will be slightly bigger than anyone else's but the general trend will be > towards a highly fragmented market. > > Kirk > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "The Java Posse" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected]. > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/javaposse?hl=en. > > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "The Java Posse" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/javaposse?hl=en.
