And the other 5% are us who actually set up Hudson installations and 
maintain them for the rest of the organization.

The reason I've pushed Hudson so much over the last years is that it such an 
easy product to use. It has an amazingly high "just-works" factor. You can 
drop it right in, with practically zero upgrade-instructions.

I think this has a lot to do with Koshuke's way of working. If something is 
hard or doesn't work out of the box, he fixes it fast, always focusing on 
ease-of-use for the majority.

Regarding the problems that do sneak in, I think we have well-educated 
patience with the Hudson/Jenkins release rhythm. Could be that 1.396 doesn't 
work for me, or some plugin isn't working, then I just wait a couple of days 
for the next release. Maybe we send a mail to the list and try nailing the 
problem, cause we know that Koshuke will actually have a look at it, and 
help or fix within hours, days tops.

I'm not sure if Oracle can follow this rhythm, or even keep the product so 
easy to use/upgrade, even with Sonatype trying to push them in the right 
direction. Maybe they'll even introduce an obligatory "Register this product 
at Oracle.com" step during installation, or some other "user friendly" stuff 
:)

So my finger is on the "Hudson will stagnate, and users will gradually 
migrate to Jenkins" scenario, like Phil says.

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