>
> I think the obvious, that having a true Java VM running on Android would  
> require no port (for NetBeans; Eclipse would require porting SWT).
>
It sounds like "true Java VM" you are really talking about a Java runtime 
complete with libraries. If Swing looks and feels awkward now on a PC, it's 
going to be down right ridiculous on a tablet... not to mention the 
performance difference. Swing is somewhat over-engineered with 
massive hierarchies of adaptors, callbacks and whatsnot; so if people 
complain over current Android UI sluggishness, that would only increase. 

I honestly think the JVM as a whole is going to be on the decline much like 
Java. People don't care about the engine underneath, and for all practical 
purposes, Android is Java. I've said it before and I will say it again; 
bring on ease of interoperability through pluggable layers rather than a 
massive all-encompassing monolith. Frankly I can't wait to see what Google 
comes up with in the long term, they had to invent a new middle-tier 
language (RenderScript) to make up for the poor interoperability between 
Java and C. And there can be little doubt that Google will 
experience pressure from the Windows Phone 7 developer experience (C#), 
something they did not have to deal with before against only IOS 
(ObjectiveC).

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