---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Tue, Mar 15, 2011 at 8:39 AM Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] Fw: Top US Africa diplomat on Sudan To: Group <[email protected]>
I would be more optimistic than Johnnie Carson about the future of South Sudan, but I am particularly interested in his comments on Abyei, Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile. On Abyei, Carson's reference to "The north’s refusal to accept the decision" is at least pointing the finger at the party which has breached the CPA. It could thus be interpreted as a step forward from the position of the discredited US envoy Scott Gration who apparently failed to understand the situation and continually called for compromise rather than for the two parties to respect the positions which they had already both agreed. Gration played into the NCP's hands; hopefully Carson is too experienced a diplomat to fall into the same trap. "The citizens of these areas [Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile] will be consulted on whether they see the CPA as the final settlement between north and South Sudan". It had been assumed (certainly by the NCP) that popular consultations would only be about details of the governance of these two areas within the new country of North Sudan. However Carson's hint that the CPA might NOT be "the final settlement" will give hope to the people of those areas who wish to renegotiate the CPA and to have self-rule or join the south. At the very least they deserve the right of self-determination. John BEGIN Top US Africa diplomat: success of South Sudan dependent on North March 6, 2011 (LONDON) – A leading US diplomat for Africa spoke of the importance of a successful north Sudan in the future of the Republic of South Sudan (RoSS) at a UK think-tank meeting on the 6 March. US Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of Africa Affairs, Johnnie Carson, spoke of US perspectives and policy goals as the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) approaches its conclusion with the declaration of the independence of RoSS, at the London-based analysis, debate and ideas institute, Chatham House. He covered future relations between north and South Sudan and independently; Darfur; security; the road map given to the Khartoum government which could see them removed from the US State Sponsors of Terrorism list; and more. REFERENDUM VOTE Carson said the referendum vote “demonstrated the ability of the Sudanese people working together with representatives from Africa and the rest of the international community to overcome enormous obstacles and set the country on path towards peace and renewal.” Despite the fact that this time last year “Little if any preparation was underway. South Sudan Referendum Commission [SSRC] was not functioning. Key provisions of the CPA were unimplemented and many observers doubted northern leaders would allow the referendum to allow without challenges or accept its results without discrediting them.” He described the referendum as a “remarkable achievement and success” for which the AU, UN and governments of north and South Sudan “deserve enormous credit”. POST-REFERENDUM DIALOGUE He warned that the formation of South Sudan as “a viable and self-sustaining nation [...] may take decades to realise.” He believes that they “must build upon the momentum and goodwill generated by the successful referendum to push the parties to make critical compromises on some remaining difficult issues.” This includes the popular consultations and citizenship. He was concerned that many people in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states, where the popular consultations will take place “have retained the weapons and their loyalty to the SPLM.” The citizens of these areas will be consulted on whether they see the CPA as the final settlement between north and South Sudan. On the subject of the status of Abyei, which he described as “complex”, he said “further procrastination could exacerbate an already volatile situation.” Abyei is an oil-rich region on the border between north and South Sudan. Its statehood is still a matter of dispute. “Agreement was reached on Abyei in Naivasha and the decision of the Abyei boundary commission was meant to be final and binding. The north’s refusal to accept the decision however led to arbitration that severely delayed the implementation of the Abyei protocol stipulated by the CPA.” The status of “as many as 2 million” southerners living in north Sudan and fewer northerners in South Sudan is a “major potential flashpoint” - citizenship rights should be agreed upon by both states. ECONOMY OF SOUTH SUDAN If South Sudan is to assert its economic independence, it is important to recognise the importance of north Sudan in the “interdependence of the countries’ oil sectors,” due to factors such as the “irreplaceable expertise and critical infrastructure” in the north. He warned that “grandiose plans for an alternative pipeline and export route which could cost billions of dollars and take many years to execute should only be considered if they make commercial and economic sense. For the moment, the economic case for moving forward on such an independent effort does not exist.” FUTURE TIES BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH SUDAN Carson encouraged north and South Sudan to “sustain and deepen their ties” to resolve issues over debt allocation, foreign embassies, currency. He gave France and Germany as an example of how once warring nations can normalise relations, and India and Pakistan, and Ethiopia and Eritrea as examples of what can happen if the separation process is unsuccessful. South has a “series of especially hard internal challenges” to contest with. He gave the example of militia groups who “pose an ongoing security threat in the absence of a strong, professional, appropriately sized and equipped and configured military and security” The US will “help it address issues of security sector reform and demobilisation.” “The Republic of South Sudan will be one of the most disadvantaged states to join the international community over the past century. Its institutional foundations are weak. Much of the area has virtually no transportation.” He voiced concern for the future, saying that “transparent and democratic process should be the political standard for the southern Sudanese people” whose expectations should be realistic and achievable. NORTH SUDAN He assured north Sudan that “we are as committed in Washington to helping it [Khartoum] work through these challenges as we are with working with the government in South Sudan.” He lauded the fact that Khartoum “took an enormous risk” when it fulfilled its CPA commitment to readily accept whatever the outcome of the referendum vote was. DARFUR “The US has presented the Sudanese government with a clear roadmap towards normalised and improved relations, including an eventual removal of Sudan from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list. Fully normalised relations, however, are contingent upon achieving a non-military resolution to the ongoing conflict and humanitarian crisis in Darfur.” Sudan has been on the State Sponsors of Terrorism list since 1993, resulting in trade sanctions and financial restrictions. We will do our part to “dissuade the Southern Sudanese government from them [Darfur rebel groups] militarily.” “Darfur is and should remain an integral part of Sudan.” Carson called upon Khartoum to allow NGOs “regular, unimpeded access” to affected areas in Darfur. “Khartoum will have to take risks, as it has with South Sudan, to prove to its sceptics that it is serious about achieving peace in Darfur.” FUTURE OF NORTH SUDAN “Despite its oil wealth and the economic boom observed in Khartoum over the past decade living conditions in much of northern Sudan remain far below their potential and promise.” “We will continue to encourage the government of Sudan to allow for a more open political space, democratic norms, and greater respect for human rights, just as we do with all of Sudan’s neighbours.” “We are concerned by the constraints on free speech and political activity.” “Sudan’s future stability and prosperity is contingent on making steady progress on democracy and government. The government need only look to its northern neighbours to understand the ultimate consequences if it does not.” (ST) There is an audio recording of Johnnie Carson’s talk at Chatham House on their website. http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/18806_070311carson.mp3 END ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan Advisor Sudan Ecumenical Forum [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +249 919 695 362 (Sudan mobile) +27 82 853 3556 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, John Ashworth is not the author of the content and the source is always cited. You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "sudan-john-ashworth" group. 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