Kiir's Olive Branch Met With Rough Belligerency "Adopting the peaceful approach shouldn't be simply taken at face value that the people of South Sudan cannot defend their ancestral borders." 27 May 2011
By Majok Nikodemo Arou The olive branch of the President of South Sudan Lt. General Salva Kiir Mayardit over peaceful tackling of Abyei stalemate was immediately met with outright belligerency and disdain by the Northern Sudan Army, who are hinting to annex the northern areas of South Sudan such as Kapia Kinji, Kaka and the oilfields in the Unity and Upper Nile States, if South Sudan do not hastily make painful concessions. Kiir said at the press conference held in Juba yesterday that "South Sudan will not go back to war. It will never happen under my leadership and I have said this before." He underlined that the Government of South Sudan is committed to peace. "But let some people not interpret this as act of cowardice”, warned Kiir. The ongoing incident in Abyei, he continued, was a wider plot by the Khartoum regime to derail South Sudan’s preparations for its independence, which had hitherto been heading towards success. Filled with phony euphoria over the recent illegal occupation of Abyei, the ruling northern National Congress Party (NCP) seem to misinterpret the peaceful approach adopted by the South Sudan leadership to settle the issue of Abyei peacefully in accordance with the Hague Arbitration Ruling. Instead the NCP declared that they will not recognise the independence of the South Sudan next July unless borders are demarcated. Of course in accordance with their own terms! The head of the NCP’s political mobilisation bureau Al-Haj Magid Siwar pontificated that the process must be completed on the ground before they give their blessings to the new state. "How can we approve and recognise a new state separate from us that we don’t know where their borders begin or end," Siwar said. In fact, the NCP's members in the Border Commission under behest of the hawks in the party, had frustrated all the efforts to demarcate the borders. They have been resisting all the attempts to invite the former colonial powers: Britain and Egypt to help in the process. So this provocative rhetoric was made simultaneously with the statement of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) Chief of Staff General Esmat Abdel-Rahman that "the army will carry out a major operation next week to expel any Southern troops inside the North. We are addressing the SPLA; they have to withdraw any illegal troops that remain north of the 1956 border," he told a student rally outside army headquarters in Khartoum. He stressed that this must be done by next week and noted President Omer Hassan Ahmed El Bashir’s directive authorising the army to take any steps necessary without needing new orders. The question is; which borders are they talking to demarcate? According to the SAF top brass the army are bracing to evict the Sudan Peoples Liberation Army from the North. So they have already determined the borders!! Adopting the peaceful approach shouldn't be simply taken at face value that the people of South Sudan cannot defend their ancestral borders. They did it in 1950s, 1960s and in 1990s when they were even divided. Oh, South Sudanese; this is nothing less than the declaration of invasion. Prepare for war if you want peace. Coming back to Abyei standoff, the NCP are in the heart of the international storm. With the United Nations Security Council and major countries calling on them to withdraw immediately, they are looking for an exit strategy, which is proving very hard. Locally they have raised the bargaining position of the Messiriya Tribe over Abyei. So the withdrawal will prove costly in terms of the political loss, meanwhile, the NCP cannot snub the international position ordering them to withdraw immediately. The other issue, is that the people of South Sudan are considering the peaceful option first but that would likely change if no progress in sight. United States ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice, who recently paid the regional tour to the region with the UN Security Council team, said, "Abyei’s occupation won’t affect South Sudan’s independence on July 9 but she warned that if northern forces don’t withdraw, the UNSC is likely to consider action in response." Despite the belligerent stance, the NCP are at their worst ever weakest position. With poor homegrown support and the regional and international pressure on them to go far way to honour peace, they resort to the current upsurge to blackmail the people of South Sudan who don't want anything to disrupt their D Day on 9 of July, to get more concessions on oil, Abyei and other border points. This is either getting sour as the invasion of Abyei have already provoked the Government of South Sudan. The people of South Sudan are aware of the predicament of the NCP government, which could fall if suddenly deprived from the oil revenues. The government of South Sudan could have conceded some percentage of the revenues, but under duress and threat that is not likely. It's unthinkable for the NCP to demand equal sharing of the oil revenues with the South, which will pay for the pipelines, the refineries and the exportation charges. This will virtually mean that the North will go away with 80 per cent of the revenues as they have been doing so far. Meanwhile, the SAF are also mulling to dishonour the right of the Popular Consultation in both the Nuba Mountains and Ingessina. The NCP leaders have been brainstorming over the best scenario to deny the great people of the Nuba Mountains and Ignessina their legitimate rights. It will be seen how the NCP will go ahead with this sinister scenario without collateral damages, and under the microscope of the international community. There is one thing the NCP leaders dread very much to hear, see, or believe: the balance of power is narrowing and the rules of political game are changing very rapidly in Sudan as a result. To distract attention of the public, they want to make the local people in the North believe that they are well off, while the reality is awfully not. The author is a Sudanese journalist Posted in: Opinions -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "JFD info" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/jfdinfo?hl=en.
