---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Mon, May 30, 2011 at 8:30 AM Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] Fw: Khartoum threatens to occupy South Kordofan and Blue Nile To: Group <[email protected]>
Sudan Threatens to Occupy 2 More Disputed Regions By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN and JOSH KRON Published: May 29, 2011 NYT JUBA, Sudan — The northern Sudanese Army is threatening to seize two more areas along the combustible north-south border, risking war just weeks before southern Sudan is due to split off as a new country, Western and Sudanese officials said Sunday. The northern government has already defied internationally brokered agreements with the south, sending its army storming into the contested border region of Abyei a week ago. Now, its threats strike again at a peace process, designed to lead the region out of a long conflict that has cost millions of lives, that seemed closer to realization after a jubilant and nonviolent vote for independence by southerners just this January. According to a letter from the Sudanese military’s high command, the northern army, in the next few days, plans to take over Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan States, two disputed areas with a long history of conflict that are still bristling with arms. Local leaders and Western diplomats fear that if the northern army goes through with it, pushing out or forcibly disarming the thousands of fighters allied to the south in these two areas, it could set off a much bigger clash between the northern and southern armies. Malik Agar, Blue Nile’s governor, said Sunday night that northern forces had recently moved “dangerously close” to the bases of southern-allied fighters and that he did not think the southern-allied forces would surrender. “It’s like putting a cat in a corner,” Mr. Agar said. “They will fight.” Sudan’s border area is a dizzyingly complex mosaic of ethnic groups and political loyalties. It is also home to the bulk of the country’s crude oil and some of the most fertile land in the country, making the question of how exactly to draw a line across Sudan one of the most explosive issues the nation confronts as it prepares to split in two. Under peace agreements signed several years ago, joint forces were supposed to patrol some of these disputed areas. The two sides had agreed that Abyei would hold a referendum to decide if it were to join the north or south, a compromise that was essentially blotted out on May 21 when thousands of northern Sudanese soldiers marched into Abyei. Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile were supposed to conduct a less formal, vaguely defined “popular consultation” process that southerners say has not been completed. Southern Sudan is just weeks away from attaining independence, a goal that has taken more than 50 years. The region, one of the poorest and least developed places on earth, where four out of five adults cannot read, defied expectations with its orderly independence referendum in January. In the past week, southern leaders have absorbed the loss of Abyei, complaining bitterly about it but deciding not to respond with military force, saying that could jeopardize all that they had sacrificed for. On Sunday, southern leaders indicated that they would not fight over Blue Nile or Southern Kordofan either. “It is not our priority now to get involved in a war,” said Barnaba Marial Benjamin, the information minister for the government of southern Sudan. He also said high-level negotiations were about to begin in Khartoum, Sudan’s capital, over several of these border issues. But what may be more dangerous this time is that there are many more southern-allied fighters stationed in Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan than there were in Abyei — possibly tens of thousands, compared with a few hundred in Abyei who quickly retreated last weekend when faced with a clearly superior northern Sudanese force. “The move into the Nuba in particular will be explosive,” said Eric Reeves, a professor at Smith College and one of the leading academic voices on Sudan. “The amount of weaponry and men under arms is tremendous.” Nuba is a mountainous region of Southern Kordofan that is technically part of northern Sudan but became one of the strongholds of the southern rebels during the civil war in the 1980s and 1990s. The southern-allied fighters there are in a more desperate situation than southern troops were in Abyei. There is no easy way to flee to the south even if they wanted to. And if the fighters in these areas give up their weapons, they will be at the mercy of the northern Sudanese forces whom they have fought for years. “If it were only so simple for them to move south,” Mr. Agar said. “But they are not southerners. They are from Blue Nile and they don’t have any other place to go.” In an example of the complexities of this area, Mr. Agar is from a predominantly northern Sudanese ethnic group, Ingesena, and his state, Blue Nile, is clearly part of northern Sudan, according to an internal boundary established before Sudan became independent on Jan. 1, 1956. But Mr. Agar is part of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement, the organization that led the fight for southern independence. He, along with countless others from his area, personally battled as guerrilla fighters for the south against the north. Mr. Agar said that he had recently received a written order for the southern forces in his area to disarm. According to a letter provided to The New York Times, dated May 23 and marked “Top Secret,” the northern Sudanese army will “redeploy its forces to all areas north of the 1/1/1956 borders starting from 1 June 2011.” The letter is from Ismat Abdul Rahman Zain al-Abideen, the chief of staff for the Sudanese military. Western officials have said the northern military has threatened to attack any southern-allied soldiers north of the border who do not withdraw immediately. Northern leaders have not been shy about their intentions to unilaterally annex large areas of contested territory. They have amassed an enormous force of troops, tanks and artillery pieces in the borderlands area and have publicly vowed to take control of all the disputed territory north of the 1956 border, regardless that the status of some of those areas was supposed to be decided by the people themselves. Rabie A. Atti, a government spokesman in Khartoum, the northern capital, said Sunday that like Abyei, “Blue Nile and Nuba Mountains in Southern Kordofan are part of the north, and nothing else.” Some observers believe that the north’s maneuvering, including the letter, may be in response to the mounting pressures on Sudan’s president, Omar Hassan al-Bashir. Many northerners are upset and fearful about losing the south, especially its oil, and as southern independence draws near, the northern economy and national currency have slid. By grabbing what little disputed territory remains, Mr. Bashir can make himself look strong even though he is still boxed in, having been indicted by the International Criminal Court in connection to the massacres in the western region of Darfur. “This is one way of pushing the envelope to say, ‘Forget you, southern Sudan, we’re going to make all the negotiations over the border final,’ ” said one American official who works closely on Sudan. “I seriously doubt the south will go to war over this. It’s not worth it to them,” added the official, who was not allowed to speak publicly on the matter. “But this could lead to internal turmoil. I mean, how long is the south going to take this humiliation? How long are they going to back off?” http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/30/world/africa/30sudan.html?_r=1&src=twrhp&pagewanted=all END ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan Advisor Sudan Ecumenical Forum [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +249 919 695 362 (Sudan mobile) +27 82 853 3556 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, John Ashworth is not the author of the content and the source is always cited. You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "sudan-john-ashworth" group. 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