---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Mon, Jun 6, 2011 at 2:40 PM Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] Fw: Brinkmanship in Sudan as a Deadline Nears To: Group <[email protected]>
"rather than trying to start a major conflict, Mr. Bashir may instead be playing out a carefully devised strategy meant to ensure just one thing: that when southern Sudan declares independence next month, his northern government controls as much oil as possible, or at least is richly compensated" “Khartoum’s capture of Abyei and aggressive posturing on the eve of independence are, among other things, attempts to strengthen their negotiating hand and squeeze the South for as much as possible on oil, economic and border arrangements” “I don’t think a war’s going to break out. These are calculated risks, though sometimes calculations don’t work.” BEGIN 1. Brinkmanship in Sudan as a Deadline Nears By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN New York Times Published: June 5, 2011 AGOK, Sudan — In the past few weeks, President Omar Hassan al-Bashir of Sudan, who has been accused of orchestrating a genocide in Darfur, seems to be steering his country back toward war. His troops and tanks violently annexed Abyei, a flashpoint town on the contested border dividing northern and southern Sudan. Then he sent thousands of soldiers into two other volatile areas, Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan, while continuing a crippling blockade of the south, strangling it of food and fuel. At the same time, renegade southern militias, widely believed to be armed by Mr. Bashir’s intelligence services, have stepped up their attacks, hitting army bases, snatching weapons and stretching southern troops thin as they scramble to meet all these threats, often hijacking United Nations vehicles to get to the battlefield. But diplomats and analysts believe that, rather than trying to start a major conflict, Mr. Bashir may instead be playing out a carefully devised strategy meant to ensure just one thing: that when southern Sudan declares independence next month, his northern government controls as much oil as possible, or at least is richly compensated. “Khartoum’s capture of Abyei and aggressive posturing on the eve of independence are, among other things, attempts to strengthen their negotiating hand and squeeze the South for as much as possible on oil, economic and border arrangements,” said Zach Vertin, an analyst for the International Crisis Group, which researches conflicts worldwide. In this high-stakes game, the tens of thousands of people who fled their homes during the takeover of Abyei and are now camped out under trees or plastic tarps along the border have become bargaining chips. Both north and south claim Abyei, and analysts say that Mr. Bashir would be willing to give Abyei to the south — and let the people go home — if he gets a good deal on other separation issues, namely the oil. But life for the bargaining chips, meanwhile, has been miserable. For Mary Achol, it has meant eating leaves. On a recent morning in the border town of Agok, Ms. Achol slumped in the meager shade of a thorn tree, her belly rumbling from the nearly toxic mix of wild plants she ingested, a baby sweating profusely in her arms. During the chaotic exodus out of Abyei, Ms. Achol lost two other children. “Maybe they died of thirst, maybe they were eaten by lions,” she said. “I don’t have a lot of hope.” Of course, there are many sticky issues on the table as Sudan prepares to split into two. But like many other divorces, Sudan’s seems to be about money, and both the northern and southern economies are desperately dependent on oil. While this means that oil is an obvious source of tension, it could also be the glue that holds the two Sudans together. The north has the pipelines and refineries, the south about 75 percent of the reserves, implying some degree of symbiosis. Since last summer, the sides have been haggling over how to split the southern oil — or the money from it. Those close to the talks say they have hit an impasse, though they expect some deal to be struck before July 9 because no one wants to contemplate the possibility of a shutdown. Much of Sudan’s oil is so thick that the pipelines could get clogged, causing hundreds of millions of dollars in damage, if the flow of oil is suddenly stopped, as the south has threatened to do if no agreement is reached. This means now is the decisive moment for the oil talks, and diplomats say it is no coincidence that the north has suddenly increased the military pressure. “This is simply about getting the best economic deal possible,” said a Western diplomat in Sudan. “The north needs that oil.” Publicly, northern officials deny any connection, citing a specific reason for each of their recent military maneuvers — for example, in Abyei, southern forces attacked a northern convoy right before the occupation. But privately, one leading member of Mr. Bashir’s National Congress Party acknowledged that this may be about leverage, at least the Abyei piece. “If you say that both sides are trying to get a better negotiating position until the resolution of Abyei, then that is acceptable,” said the official, who asked not to be identified. >From Mr. Bashir’s standpoint, he needs to drive a hard bargain. There have been recent food riots in the north; many northerners are already grumbling about the south being allowed to split off; and Darfur is still a headache for him, with the rebels fighting on and the International Criminal Court accusing Mr. Bashir of genocide for the massacres there. If he hopes to keep his job — which may be the only way of staying out of jail — Mr. Bashir needs to keep the northern economy afloat, which he cannot do without southern oil. Sudan made its first major oil discoveries in the late 1970s. But soon the north-south civil war resumed, and vicious fighting between northern Arabs and southerners (who are mostly Christian and animist) rendered it impossible to develop a petroleum industry. The northern government eventually co-opted ethnic militias in the south to secure the oil fields and began exporting oil in 1999. Many of these same ethnic militias have recently re-emerged, just as the oil talks hit their final stretch. “If you need proof these militias are connected to the north, just look how they maneuver,” said Garang Diing Akuong, the southern energy minister. Whenever the militias infiltrate from the north, he said, they bypass the oil installations, where there are obvious southern bases to hit, and go farther south. “These militias have been given instructions not to mess with the oil,” the minister said. The north has denied any connection to the ethnic militias, whose forces are heavily armed and thought to number in the tens of thousands. The south has flirted with the idea of building its own pipeline to Kenya’s coast, near the historic island of Lamu. But that would take at least three years, and with 93 percent of the southern government’s revenue derived from oil sales, the south probably cannot hang on that long. Analysts have said that the southern government, already racked by ethnic tensions and militia problems, would implode if soldiers stopped getting their paychecks. Southern officials chafe at the idea of “sharing” their oil with Mr. Bashir’s government, preferring instead to pay a transit fee, which, according to oil analysts, is typically anywhere from a dollar per barrel to 25 percent. It seems the two sides are stuck on reaching a figure. Sudan currently produces around 500,000 barrels per day. The south has also made it clear that it doesn’t want to risk its long-awaited independence by going to war, which means that the only way to lift the blockades and get people home may be to give Mr. Bashir what he wants. “It all adds up to one marvelous strategy,” said the Western diplomat, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing diplomatic protocol. He added, “I don’t think a war’s going to break out. These are calculated risks, though sometimes calculations don’t work.” Josh Kron contributed reporting from Juba, Sudan, and Isma’il Kushkush from Khartoum, Sudan. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/06/world/africa/06sudan.html?_r=2&hp END1 2. Clashes erupt in South Kordofan between SAF and SPLA June 5, 2011 (KHARTOUM/JUBA) - Fighting broke out on Sunday in the key northern border state of South Kordofan, just weeks before oil-rich South Sudan is due to separate from the north. Multiple sources told Sudan Tribune that northern tanks and heavy artillery were stationed in and around the state’s main town of Kadugli while clashes have been reported in surrounding villages. Last week the northern Sudanese army issued an ultimatum to soldiers from the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) to move out of the states of South Kordofan and Blue Nile, which border South Sudan. There were also reports of clashes between the northern Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) of the Khartoum government and the SPLA in Umm Dorain about 12km south east of Kadugli. A member of the the main opposition party in the state, the northern sector of the SPLM - the SPLM’s southern sector governs South Sudan - told Sudan Tribune that Umm Dorain had been attacked by the SAF as they believed SPLA forces were in the area. The reports of fighting in Umm Dorain were also confirmed by the UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS). "There were two attacks. One happened in Kadugli town itself, where a police station was attacked last night (Saturday) by unknown gunmen," UNMIS spokeswoman Hua Jiang told Agence France Presse (AFP), adding that there was no information on casualties. "We have also had reports of shooting in Um Dorain today. We have sent land and air patrols to the area to investigate," she said. But a statement from Sudan’s state news agency (SUNA), quoted the northern army as saying the "the incident" was a case of an individual soldier firing at random. The statement went on to say that Kadugli was calm, the situation was "contained" and that relations between the SAF and NCP with the "the other party", the SPLM, were stable. According to reports received by Sudan Tribune the SAF moved tanks south from El Obeid through the Dilling area and stationed them at Kadugli airport and near the compound of the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) early on Sunday. Some of tanks were redeployed to Um Dorain Reuters reported. Fighting was reported to have begun on Sunday morning in Kadugli, which eyewitnesses and other sources say is now full of military personnel, hardware and vehicles. The UNMIS spokesperson told Reuters that late on Saturday unknown armed groups attacked and stole weapons from a police station in Kadugli. A member of the SPLM - the political wing of the SPLA - Nassir Kuku, told Sudan Tribune that the SAF had entered Kadugli at 9 am on Sunday. He said that there had been "serious fighting" in the villages Alburam and Miri, although this has not been confirmed. “There has been serious tension here in Kadugli before and [after the] elections [results] were announced. The National Congress [Party] (NCP) rigged elections and again wanted to initiate the fighting," he said. In early May the NCP, which governs North Sudan, beat the SPLM in controversial state elections, which were delayed from last year over a census dispute, to decide the state governor and the makeup of South Kordofan’s legislative assembly. Incumbent NCP governor, Ahmed Haroun was reinstated in office after defeating his deputy, the SPLM candiate Abdul Aziz Adam El-Hilu. International monitors endorsed the election of Haroun, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes in Darfur, allegedly committed while he was Sudan’s interior minister (2003-2005) and minister for humanitarian affairs (2006-2009). In 2009 he was appointed as governor of South Kordofan. Haroun was quoted by state media as saying that some of the joint police units attacked the wildlife police in Kadugli while the garrison in Um Dorain came under assault from SPLA troops. Sudan Tribune failed to reach El-Hilu on Sunday but senior SPLM figure Musa Kaka, said that the SAF had been entering Kadugli for some time but only started their operation on Sunday. “They started their operation today on Sunday at 9:00am. They moved tanks and other machine guns. More than 12 tanks appeared in the town today”, he said. Eyewitness including sources from the UN confirmed the entry of the SAF to Kadugli and the subsequent eruption of fighting. The SPLM has strong support in the northern border states of South Kordofan and Blue Nile as many people from the areas joined the SPLA/M in fighting Khartoum during Sudan’s second ’North-South’ civil war. However, with South Sudan due to secede in July, after a referendum earlier this year both states will remain north of the border and governed by the NCP in Khartoum. As part of the 2005 peace deal that ended the conflict and granted South Sudan the right to self determination, the two states were accorded ’popular consultations’ to consider whether the Comprehensive Peace Agreement addressed their grievances and to propose what their future relationship with Khartoum might look like. The much delayed processes are yet to be completed despite there being only a little over a month until the official end of the peace deal and South Sudan’s independence on July 9. Sunday’s fighting is thought to have been triggered by the north’s demand that all SPLA soldiers move south of the 1956 border - created by the British at Sudan’s independence - or surrender their weapons. In accordance with the security arrangements in the 2005 peace deal, Joint Integrated Units (JIUs) of 24,000 soldiers, 12,000 each from SAF and SPLA were deployed in various towns in South Sudan, Khartoum, Blue Nile and South Kordofan. The forces were to serve as the nucleus for a future national army should the people of South Sudan vote for the unity of the country in a plebiscite agreed as part of the peace deal. However, the south voted resoundingly to separate and the SPLA, which became the official army of South Sudan after the 2005 agreement, will in July become the army of an independent nation. The SPLA is adamant that soldiers from the Nuba Mountains in South Kordofan and Blue Nile cannot relocate to the south as they are not southern Sudanese. On 31 May the SPLA’s spokesperson, Philip Aguer indicated to Sudan Tribune that the SPLA in South Sudan was no longer responsible for SPLA soldiers north of border. He said: “North [Sudan] is supposed to discuss what to do with the forces in Blue Nile and South Kordofan. It is [a] northern conflict and we are not part of it.” UN Mission in Sudan The UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) shut the doors to its compound on Sunday morning, Sudan Tribune has learnt, as SAF military police with up to 10 vehicles with heavy weaponry positioned themselves outside. UNMIS’s response to the breakout of fighting in Kadugli is likely to be heavily scrutinized after the criticism its peacekeepers received for their inaction when the SAF overran the contested region of Abyei last month. The UN mission was also accused by Khartoum’s representative at the UN of not doing "anything" when an SAF convoy they were escorting was attacked by a southern armed group in a precipitous clash, Reuters has reported. A leading UN military official is being dispatched to Abyei to investigate the claim that Zambian peacekeepers stayed in their barracks for two days while the town was being burnt and looted. ABYEI The SAF’s entry into Kadugli comes less than three weeks after it moved into the disputed territory of Abyei. The strategically important region was occupied by the northern military on 21 May. Abyei, along with South Kordofan and Blue Nile was one of the ’three areas’ given special status in the 2005 peace deal, but instead of ’popular consultations’ Abyei was granted a referendum on whether it would remain in South Kordofan or join South Sudan. The future of Abyei also remains uncertain and a source of potential renewed north-south conflict as its plebiscite did not go ahead, leaving the area in limbo and at the center of the high stakes military and diplomatic calculations as the SPLM and NCP try to agree on post-independence issues such as oil and debt as well as implement remaining issues from the peace deal such as border demarcation. With the south’s secession Sudan will lose 75 percent of the country’s known oil reserves. (ST) END2 ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan Advisor Sudan Ecumenical Forum [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +249 919 695 362 (Sudan mobile) +27 82 853 3556 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. 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