---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Fri, Jun 17, 2011 at 9:50 AM Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] Fwd: Dictator's posturing fails to derail southern independence To: Group <[email protected]>
Dictator's posturing fails to derail southern independence BY WENDY LEVY 17 Jun, 2011 04:00 AM Canberra Times South Sudan is determined to circumvent Bashir's latest bid to maintain power. When troops loyal to Sudanese President Omar Al Bashir last month took control of Abyei, a town on Sudan's border with the nation-in-waiting of South Sudan, the sound of their bullets and bombs carried far beyond the contested oil region. On June 30, Bashir marks the 22nd anniversary of the coup that brought him to power; on July 9, South Sudan celebrates its independence. The spotlight is on Bashir, the failed Sudanese leader who drove away more than one-third of his country. He may huff and puff, he may yet cause further serious damage, but this big bad wolf can't blow South Sudan's house down. The dispute over Abyei is long-standing. Home to the southern Dinka Ngok people, it also offers a seasonal watering place for northern Misseriya nomads, and more recently, a regional centre for successful oil exploration. Land rights are the issue, yet negotiations could have settled the matter long ago if the political will had been there. Bashir's orders to attack the town were a direct violation of Sudan's Comprehensive Peace Agreement, the 2005 pact signed in Naivasha, Kenya, that ended decades of civil war between Khartoum and the Sudan People's Liberation Army . Reports he was massing Sudan Armed Forces troops along the southern border were followed in early June by government attacks on the border region of South Kordofan, dispersing tens of thousands of residents of towns such as Kadugli, Dilling and Talodi to flee. Bashir's actions were widely condemned by the United Nations, African Union, Britain, France, European Union, while the United States whose ambassador to the United Nations, Susan Rice, was in Khartoum with a UN Security Council delegation at the time vowed that if Bashir did not withdraw, it would keep Sudan on its list of terrorist-sponsoring states. US President Barack Obama has urged both north and south to ''live up to their responsibilities'' by ending the conflict. There were fears that the SPLA might retaliate, casting the shadow of war across independence celebrations next month for South Sudan. So far, Southern president and former rebel commander, Salva Kiir, has refused to rise to the bait, adamant he rules out a return to war, however, the SAF and SPLA are now engaged in bloody battles on three fronts, including with splinter militia groups. There is also little enthusiasm in the north for another drawn-out war, but military action may bolster Bashir's credentials among his supporters and provide a welcome distraction from the inability of his 22-year-old government to maintain peace in Sudan. While the fighting stays far from Khartoum, Bashir and his team are quarantined from the brutal destruction in regional areas. Bashir can claim he was provoked in Abyei, the seizure of the town followed an incident several days earlier, in which SAF soldiers were killed by the SPLA while their convoy was withdrawing from the area under UN escort. But it is not the first time Abyei has suffered at his hands, with clashes several years ago between government-backed and SPLA troops causing widespread death and mayhem. Bashir seems to relish the limelight from the latest battles. As with the soon-to-be independent south, the central regions of Abyei, South Kordofan and Southern Blue Nile have their own languages and have been shaped by their own ancient traditions, as well as Christianity and Islam. In Sudan's political landscape, these people look to the south as well as north, supplying fighters for both SPLA and SAF. Put to one side at the Naivasha peace negotiations, these areas were not party to the 2011 southern independence referendum, instead promised a separate referendum and-or consultations at a later date. Bashir's behaviour follows a pattern, essentially the same whether in the six-year peace period or the two-decade civil war. On some pretext or none he marches in his troops with their guns a-blazing, indulges in a bloody shoot-em-up, burns, loots, plunders and pillages, all the while spouting rhetoric for the ears of his supporters in Khartoum. When the international outcry is loud enough, he marches away, beating his drums loudly while scheming for another day. Bashir has been charged with war crimes and genocide in Darfur by the International Criminal Court , an indictment that affects his ability to travel to international events and credibly advocate for his country in any arena. Recently he installed his cohort Ahmed Haroun as governor of South Kordofan, sending waves of horror through the local Nuba people as Haroun is also wanted by the ICC, for crimes against humanity in Darfur. In the south, the dismay at the bloodshed in Abyei only strengthens their resolve to farewell Bashir and concentrate on the road ahead, with its pressing issues of chronic poverty, lack of infrastructure and changing expectations as the former war zone transitions into a strong civil society. The government of South Sudan has shown remarkable fortitude over the past six years when dealing with Bashir. Kiir and his team have kept the south and southerners on a relatively even keel during crises that ranged from violence in areas such as Abyei and Malakal, disputes over Khartoum's short-changing of much-needed oil royalties, and political blockades in Sudan's National Assembly. Kiir says he remains committed to peace whether or not ''some people interpret this as acts of cowardice''. He reiterates the need to resolve the outstanding issues in Abyei according to recommendations of the peace agreement's Abyei Border Committee. He has sought international support to put pressure on Bashir, with a potential role for China, which has strengthened its economic ties with both north and south. Meanwhile, if Bashir's behaviour pattern holds true, we can expect more southerners to flee the north, more arrests of civil activists, more problems for the UN and aid workers, more troop movements in and around central Sudan, Darfur and the south. If Khartoum is seeking to better its position ahead of negotiations, it's a heavy-handed way to go about it. The past decades have shown that Sudan's differences cannot be resolved on the battlefield. If the two countries are to live together peacefully, they need inspirational leaders whose behaviour models reconciliation. # Dr Wendy Levy has worked in Sudan and studied at the ANU's Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies. http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/opinion/editorial/general/dictators-posturing-fails-to-derail-southern-independence/2198803.aspx END ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan Advisor [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +249 919 695 362 (Sudan mobile) +27 82 853 3556 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, John Ashworth is not the author of the content and the source is always cited. 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