---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: John Ashworth <[email protected]> Date: Thu, Jun 23, 2011 at 5:02 PM Subject: [sudan-john-ashworth] Fwd: The diplomacy of desperation To: Group <[email protected]>
The following was sent to me by a longstanding observer of Sudan and the region. John BEGIN The diplomacy of desperation “Finally, we want to underscore the imperative of timely and candid assessments for the Council about the evolving situation, for which we crucially depend on the Secretariat. This is essential for us to be able to determine and take actions necessary to ensure that the UN can carry out its mission. Contingents unwilling to carry out their mandate to protect civilians should not be part of this crucial mission. Contingents under attack also need our backup and support. With the failure of their government to live up to its responsibilities, the Sudanese people have turned to the international community for protection, and we have an obligation to provide it.” (From a statement by Susan Rice, US UN Press release, 20th June, 2011.) What is going on at the Security Council ? UNMIS is dead – where is UNMISS ? Where is Hilde Johnson ? (About to be named the new SRSG for South Sudan.) Where does the mandate discussion stand ? While the South Sudanese are not in the least surprised by the NCP’s jump from acceptance of the referendum result to attacks on Abyei and the Nuba, the “international community” has no obvious ammunition left in its diplomatic armoury and seems now to be at a loss in the face of the return of violence beyond credible justification. Perhaps the Security Council is too, silent for a week on what next in Sudan and now, implicitly, rebuking the Secretariat through Susan Rice for assessments neither timely nor candid. And how exactly can anyone carry out an obligation to provide protection to anyone else in today’s Sudan ? In the last few days I have swapped views with a number of expatriates with long experience here and some Sudanese, though not enough of the latter, since many are too busy with negotiations or preparations for secession. The view from one place cannot be all-encompassing, but we largely agreed that we are scraping the diplomatic barrel, with pressure on Khartoum from China the only diplomatic option apparently left to rescue sections of Sudan from its rulers, while a no-fly zone in Nuba, set up from Africom in Djibouti , is perhaps the only politically feasible military option left. If by a miracle Khartoum were to accept it and Ethiopia and others to supply it, then an extended border force, to monitor a DMZ and apprehend violators would be a good addition – the borders will otherwise see much bloodshed. This was always the one clear request from GoSS, and not enough attention was paid to it. (GoSS is an embryo government so stressed by its SPLA culture and stretched by its responsibilities that it can only focus on one thing at a time, currently getting through secession to recognition with minimum losses en route. ) Has diplomacy reached its limits ? Scrabbling round in Addis Ababa to get war crimes suspects to sign another piece of paper saying they’ll do what they committed to do 6 years ago but have somehow evaded – this is the diplomacy of desperation. Yes, an agreement on SKS, more realistically the Nuba, can probably cobbled together, but so what ? Yes SAF say they’ll leave Abyei but they’ve destroyed most of it and the Ngok have run away – how can a referendum be held there ? When the new state emerges, then the US can rebuild the SPLA ( see David Gressly’s sensible call to lay off half the SPLA and make the other half more effective), the UK can reform the police, the EU and others can set up conferences, workshops, talkshops, debates and discussions about democracy and decision-taking, accountability and human rights, the Chinese can lend money against future oil or build new pipelines and refineries and the NGOs will carry on providing services until the government is able to take that on. Meanwhile, what can diplomats suggest to GoSS ? Send Hilde Johnson a more thought-through request for a DMZ at the border, policed by better troops ? Send Hilary Clinton a request from Abdul Aziz el Hilu, Malik Agar and Salva Kir for a No-fly Zone in Abyei, Nuba and the whole border ? Sorry I have no better news. Bright ideas gratefully acknowledged and accepted. END ______________________ John Ashworth Sudan Advisor [email protected] +254 725 926 297 (Kenya mobile) +249 919 695 362 (Sudan mobile) +27 82 853 3556 (South Africa mobile) +44 750 304 1790 (UK/international) +88 216 4334 0735 (Thuraya satphone) PO Box 52002 - 00200, Nairobi, Kenya This is a personal e-mail address and the contents do not necessarily reflect the views of any organisation -- The content of this message does not necessarily reflect John Ashworth's views. Unless explicitly stated otherwise, John Ashworth is not the author of the content and the source is always cited. 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