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https://issues.apache.org/jira/browse/KAFKA-18238?page=com.atlassian.jira.plugin.system.issuetabpanels:comment-tabpanel&focusedCommentId=17906819#comment-17906819
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Santhosh C T commented on KAFKA-18238:
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Running this for every commit seems counter intuitive since we have the results 
for all the commits already for that test. 

I think we need more systematic approach as [~davidarthur] was mentioning. We 
need to establish a solid baseline and then find the candidate for true first 
commit through heuristics. 

*Example:*
 # *Fetch Test Results:*

 ** Fetch test results from Develocity APIs for commits {{C1}} through 
{{{}C1000{}}}.
 ** Record each commit’s test result: pass, fail, or flaky.
 # *Identify a Known Stable Point:*

 ** Suppose for commits {{C1}} through {{{}C500{}}}, the test always passed. 
This is our stable baseline.
 # *Check Subsequent Commits:*

 ** From {{C501}} onwards, look for the first appearance of flaky behavior.
 ** Say at {{C620}} you first see a single instance of flakiness, but then 
{{C621}} and {{C622}} pass without issue. This might be noise—don’t jump to 
conclusions yet.
 ** At {{C630}} through {{{}C640{}}}, you start seeing a pattern: 4 out of 10 
runs are flaky. This looks like sustained flakiness.
 # *Pinpoint the Transition:*

 ** Look backward from {{C630}} to find the first commit that, once introduced, 
never yielded a stable streak of test runs afterward.
 ** If at {{C615}} everything was still stable, but starting at {{C620}} you 
see intermittent issues that get worse over time (and never return to perfect 
stability), {{C620}} is a strong candidate for the "true first commit" of 
flakiness.

> Identify the first commit where a test became flaky
> ---------------------------------------------------
>
>                 Key: KAFKA-18238
>                 URL: https://issues.apache.org/jira/browse/KAFKA-18238
>             Project: Kafka
>          Issue Type: Sub-task
>            Reporter: David Arthur
>            Assignee: David Arthur
>            Priority: Major
>




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