muralibasani opened a new pull request, #23769:
URL: https://github.com/apache/kafka/pull/23769
Discussion - Release dates are re-negotiated on dev@ for every release, and
releases ship a median of ~40 days after the planned target.
Add release/schedule.py, which projects KIP freeze, feature freeze, code
freeze, target and realistic release dates from past releases (branch cuts and
RC/release tags in git, plus the published release plans on the wiki), compares
scenarios, and shows the open blockers of a release.
Standard library only, so it runs without the release virtualenv.
#### To print next 3 releases --- python3 release/schedule.py
```
% python3 release/schedule.py
Note: 4.4.0 is not released (no tag) yet and is left out of the release
duration statistics, pass --release-date 4.4.0=YYYY-MM-DD to include it
Past releases used for the calculation (last 5 release branches, see
--window):
version branch cut (FF) RC0 released RCs cut->RC0 d
RC0->release d cut->release d commits after cut commits after RC0 days
since prev cut
------- --------------- ---------- ---------- --- ----------
-------------- -------------- ----------------- -----------------
-------------------
4.0.0 2024-12-16 2025-02-22 2025-03-18 5 68 24
92 406 51
4.1.0 2025-06-10 2025-07-09 2025-09-02 4 29 55
84 77 30 176
4.2.0 2025-11-21 2026-01-13 2026-02-16 5 53 34
87 113 33 164
4.3.0 2026-03-18 2026-04-28 2026-05-20 3 41 22
63 101 13 117
4.4.0 2026-07-27 2026-08-21 not yet 5 25
209 82 131
Source: git. Branch cut = merge-base of upstream/X.Y with upstream/trunk;
RC0, RCs and released =
dates of the X.Y.0-rcN and X.Y.0 tags. Empty RC0 = no rc0 tag kept for that
release.
Planned (wiki release plan) vs actual (git):
version KIP freeze feature freeze branch cut slip d code freeze target
release released slip d
------- ---------- -------------- ---------- ------ -----------
-------------- ---------- ------
4.0.0 2024-11-20 2024-12-11 2024-12-16 5 2025-01-15
2025-01-29 2025-03-18 48
4.1.0 2025-05-14 2025-06-04 2025-06-10 6 2025-06-25
2025-07-09 2025-09-02 55
4.2.0 2025-10-29 2025-11-19 2025-11-21 2 2025-12-10
2026-01-07 2026-02-16 40
4.3.0 2026-02-25 2026-03-18 2026-03-18 0 2026-04-08
2026-05-06 2026-05-20 14
4.4.0 2026-07-08 2026-07-29 2026-07-27 -2 2026-08-12
2026-09-09 not yet
Source: "Release Dates" section of the "Release Plan X.Y.0" pages on
cwiki.apache.org, e.g.
https://cwiki.apache.org/confluence/spaces/KAFKA/pages/325421614/Release+Plan+4.0.0
Based on 4.0.0, 4.1.0, 4.2.0, 4.3.0, 4.4.0:
feature freeze -> next feature freeze (4) median 131d, p75 164d, min
117d, max 176d
feature freeze -> first RC (4) median 41d, p75 53d, min 29d,
max 68d
first RC -> release (4) median 24d, p75 34d, min 22d,
max 55d
feature freeze -> release (4) median 84d, p75 87d, min 63d,
max 92d
release candidates (4) median 4, p75 5, min 3, max 5
planned feature freeze -> branch cut (5) median 2d, p75 5d, min -2d, max
6d
planned target -> actual release (4) median 40d, p75 48d, min 14d,
max 55d
(release plans assume feature freeze -> release = 42d: 2w to code freeze +
4w; phase lengths 3w/2w/4w from the 4.4.0 release plan)
Latest known release: 4.4.0 (feature freeze 2026-07-27, released unknown)
Dates: a published wiki release plan is used as is (see --ignore-wiki-plan),
otherwise
KIP freeze = previous feature freeze + median interval - 3w
feature freeze = KIP freeze + 3w, code freeze = feature freeze + 2w,
target release = code freeze + 4w
First RC / realistic release: feature freeze + p50 of history
version KIP freeze derived from feature freeze code freeze first
RC target release realistic release
------- ---------- ----------------- -------------- -----------
---------- -------------- -----------------
4.5.0 2027-01-13 wiki release plan 2027-02-03 2027-02-17
2027-03-16 2027-03-17 2027-04-28
4.6.0 2027-05-19 history 2027-06-09 2027-06-23
2027-07-20 2027-07-21 2027-09-01
4.7.0 2027-09-22 history 2027-10-13 2027-10-27
2027-11-23 2027-11-24 2028-01-05
Warnings:
- 4.5.0: feature freeze overlaps Lunar New Year (2027-02-03 .. 2027-02-13)
- 4.7.0: RC/vote window overlaps Christmas/New Year (2027-12-20 ..
2028-01-03)
```
#### To print status of one release --- python3 release/schedule.py
--release-date 4.4.0=2026-10-12 status 4.5.0
```
% python3 release/schedule.py --release-date 4.4.0=2026-10-12 status 4.5.0
Past releases used for the calculation (last 5 release branches, see
--window):
version branch cut (FF) RC0 released RCs cut->RC0 d
RC0->release d cut->release d commits after cut commits after RC0 days
since prev cut
------- --------------- ---------- ------------ --- ----------
-------------- -------------- ----------------- -----------------
-------------------
4.0.0 2024-12-16 2025-02-22 2025-03-18 5 68 24
92 406 51
4.1.0 2025-06-10 2025-07-09 2025-09-02 4 29 55
84 77 30 176
4.2.0 2025-11-21 2026-01-13 2026-02-16 5 53 34
87 113 33 164
4.3.0 2026-03-18 2026-04-28 2026-05-20 3 41 22
63 101 13 117
4.4.0 2026-07-27 2026-08-21 2026-10-12 * 5 25 52
77 209 82 131
Source: git. Branch cut = merge-base of upstream/X.Y with upstream/trunk;
RC0, RCs and released =
dates of the X.Y.0-rcN and X.Y.0 tags. Empty RC0 = no rc0 tag kept for that
release.
* = release date given with --release-date (not tagged yet).
Planned (wiki release plan) vs actual (git):
version KIP freeze feature freeze branch cut slip d code freeze target
release released slip d
------- ---------- -------------- ---------- ------ -----------
-------------- ------------ ------
4.0.0 2024-11-20 2024-12-11 2024-12-16 5 2025-01-15
2025-01-29 2025-03-18 48
4.1.0 2025-05-14 2025-06-04 2025-06-10 6 2025-06-25
2025-07-09 2025-09-02 55
4.2.0 2025-10-29 2025-11-19 2025-11-21 2 2025-12-10
2026-01-07 2026-02-16 40
4.3.0 2026-02-25 2026-03-18 2026-03-18 0 2026-04-08
2026-05-06 2026-05-20 14
4.4.0 2026-07-08 2026-07-29 2026-07-27 -2 2026-08-12
2026-09-09 2026-10-12 * 33
Source: "Release Dates" section of the "Release Plan X.Y.0" pages on
cwiki.apache.org, e.g.
https://cwiki.apache.org/confluence/spaces/KAFKA/pages/325421614/Release+Plan+4.0.0
Based on 4.0.0, 4.1.0, 4.2.0, 4.3.0, 4.4.0:
feature freeze -> next feature freeze (4) median 131d, p75 164d, min
117d, max 176d
feature freeze -> first RC (5) median 41d, p75 53d, min 25d,
max 68d
first RC -> release (5) median 34d, p75 52d, min 22d,
max 55d
feature freeze -> release (5) median 84d, p75 87d, min 63d,
max 92d
release candidates (5) median 5, p75 5, min 3, max 5
planned feature freeze -> branch cut (5) median 2d, p75 5d, min -2d, max
6d
planned target -> actual release (5) median 40d, p75 48d, min 14d,
max 55d
(release plans assume feature freeze -> release = 42d: 2w to code freeze +
4w; phase lengths 3w/2w/4w from the 4.4.0 release plan)
Release 4.5.0 as of 2026-10-10 (dates: wiki release plan)
KIP freeze 2027-01-13 (in 95 days)
feature freeze 2027-02-03 (in 116 days)
code freeze 2027-02-17 (in 130 days)
first RC 2027-03-16 (in 157 days)
target release 2027-03-17 (in 158 days)
realistic release 2027-04-28 (in 200 days)
warning: feature freeze overlaps Lunar New Year (2027-02-03 .. 2027-02-13)
Open JIRA issues with fixVersion 4.5.0: 54, of which Blocker/Critical: 4
key priority status assignee days idle summary
----------- -------- --------------- ----------- ---------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
KAFKA-19688 Critical Open frankvicky 58 Provide
clean upgrade path from transformValues to processValues
KAFKA-21070 Critical Open sunm2n 9 KafkaStreams
StateUpdater Task Handle Leak on Unclean Shutdown
KAFKA-20532 Critical Patch Available sahildevgon 5 Defensive
trimming of min.insync.replicas in controller and kafka-topics to tole
KAFKA-21253 Critical Open bbejeck 1 Failed
transaction abort in RecordCollectorImpl.closeDirty() skips clearing chan
```
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