India's economy is expected to expand about 7 percent in 2008 and 2009 before recovering to above 8 percent in 2010 as world growth picks up, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said on Tuesday.
In its economic outlook it said the inflation peak in India seemed to have passed, reflecting a sharp deceleration in prices of metals and petroleum, and going forward all indicators of inflation were expected to ease. India's economy, which is Asia's third largest, has grown at 9 percent or more in the past three fiscal years but a top official said on Tuesday it was preparing for growth as low as 7 percent in the fiscal year ending March 2009. "The economy is projected to slow further over the next year and to recover in tandem with the world economy in 2010," the OECD said. It said a decline in inflation, which touched an annual rate of almost 13 percent in August, could help restore confidence in the economy more rapidly and support demand and activity. Annual inflation, as measured by wholesale prices, eased to 8.90 percent in early November. Constraints imposed by a fiscal reponsibility law had led to soaring off-budget spending and the consolidated fiscal deficit, including off- budget items, would be 10 percent of GDP in fiscal 2008/09, the OECD said. "A period of fiscal retrenchment seems desirable, focused on making government subsidies available only to those in real need," it said. The Indian rupee hit a record low of 50.60 per dollar on Nov. 20 and the OECD said pressure on the currency may limit room for further interest rate cuts "so that the real rates facing consumers and firms will rise markedly, weighing on domestic demand". The Reserve Bank of India has axed 150 basis points from its key lending rate since the global credit crisis spilled over into India's markets in September and October. The key lending rate stands at 7.5 percent. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Kences1" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/kences1?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
