Cement prices have gone up by about Rs 10 a 50-kg bag in March owing to an
increase in demand and transportation constraints. However, dealers expect
demand to plateau at the current level, indicating that there will not be
any further price increase for some time in major markets. The Centre cut
excise duty by four percentage points to eight per cent in February.

Prices were hiked by Rs 3-5 a bag in the first week of March and again by Rs
5 a bag between March 16 and 20, said a city-based dealer. Together with the
hike in March, cement prices in the last 6-8 weeks have gone up by Rs 12-15
a bag.

On an average, the all-India cement price, which touched Rs 239 a bag in
last week of February, may reach Rs 245-248 by the month-end.

Though there was a marginal uptake in demand across regions, supply
constraints and transportation problems have paved the way for the rise in
prices.

*Demand decelerating*

In western regions including Mumbai, prices were increased twice by Rs 5
each in March to Rs 256-260 a bag. However, further hikes have been ruled
out as the demand is decelerating compared to January-February period.

“Government-sponsored projects contributed for the major cement demand which
is not stable. Many real estate companies have announced new projects, but
we do not see any further rise in prices,” said a dealer.

Many projects, which were put on hold due to high cement prices, are being
revived in the eastern region. In fact, in north-eastern region prices ruled
firm at Rs 285 a bag after it was revised twice in March due to shortage in
supply on the back of increase in demand.

Vinod Juneja, Managing Director, Binani Cement, said, “Many railway wagons
which were used for transporting cement have been diverted for food grain
procurement. Of late, the problem has eased a bit.” Binani Cement had
recently entered the Eastern markets.

*Power cuts in South*

Except for Bangalore, prices remained strong in the southern region
including Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Power cuts (one day a week) in
Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu has led to disruption in production schedules,
said Ajit Motwani, Research Analyst, Emkay Global Financial Services.

In the northern region, prices have gone up by Rs 5-15 a bag to Rs 235-Rs
240 in last two months with the pick up in demand from infrastructure
projects such as Delhi Airport, Delhi Metro, besides preparation for the
Commonwealth Games.

Prices are expected to remain stable at the current level despite softening
of demand in the North (excluding Delhi and adjoining regions) and few parts
of western region. It may go up marginally in the eastern and central region
on the back of strong demand, said a dealer. Mainline cement company shares
showed a mixed trend on the BSE on Wednesday. While ACC and India Cement
were up 2 per cent and 6.85 per cent at Rs 562 and Rs 103, Ultratech Cement
and Grasim Industries closed almost flat at Rs 513 and Rs 1,552. Shree
Cement and Ambuja Cement lost 4 per cent and 0.36 per cent to Rs 611 and Rs
70.

B.KARTHICK
RESEARCH ANALYST
WWW.KENCES1.BLOGSPOT.COM <http://www.kences1.blogspot.com/>

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