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STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update
21 March 2000 Chavez Facing Serious Challenge in Upcoming Election Summary Ironically, the revolutionary politics that propelled Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to power are now being turned against him. Venezuelans will go to the polls on May 28, but this time they are questioning the honesty and convictions of the president who ran on an anti-corruption platform two years ago. The chief beneficiary of the public's doubt is a onetime comrade of the president, former Lt. Col. Francisco Arias Cardenas. Arias is now poised to put an end to this mercurial chapter in the history of one of the world's largest oil-producing nations. Analysis On March 15, former Lt. Col. Francisco Arias Cardenas entered the presidential race in Venezuela. A former comrade of President Hugo Chavez, Arias is hoping that his own revolutionary credentials will help him defeat the president. Arias claims that Chavez - who has depicted himself as a populist - has become a tool of corrupt civilian advisors, betraying his anti-corruption campaign of 1998. The former governor of Zulia state, Arias is backed by the Democratic Action Party (AD) and the Social Christian Party (COPEI), as well as by former military officers. The contrast is striking. In 1998, Chavez shocked much of the Western hemisphere by running a campaign steeped in revolutionary rhetoric and promises of an anti-corruption campaign. A former paratrooper who helped lead an unsuccessful coup attempt in 1992, Chavez played on his image of honesty and claimed to be incorruptible. Instead, he charged the dominant political parties with failing to invigorate a stagnant economy. Chavez was aided, as well, by the low price of oil, which made Venezuela's oil-dependent economy and politicians easy targets. Two years later, the economic situation has hardly improved. The rise in oil prices that began in spring of 1999 brought a boom in Venezuela's oil revenues, but little trickled into the country's economy. Natural disaster, in the form of last December's mudslides, has brought more of the country's poor into the cities. A resultant rise in unemployment and inflation has caused the crime rate in the Caracas, the capital, to soar. Both Chavez and Arias share an important set of experiences, but have taken divergent paths. Both were military officers; each participated in a failed 1992 coup attempt. Chavez went to jail. Arias went on to become governor of Zulia state, an important oil- producing region. Arias worked with foreign oil companies, the environmental movement and Venezuela's Indian population. Chavez carved a rhetorically revolutionary place for himself in the country's politics and implied that he would cut ties with U.S. oil companies. Only recently, Chavez has toyed with relations with Cuba, refused U.S. troops the right to come ashore during flood relief efforts and re-kindled a territorial dispute with neighboring Guyana. Today, the coalition that brought Chavez to power has started to splinter. Last week, the Fatherland for All Party (PPT) and the Movement toward Socialism (MAS) party split from Chavez, nominating their own candidates for office. On Feb. 4, the eighth anniversary of the aborted coup, three former co-conspirators accused him and his advisors of corruption, publicly breaking with the president. The three said the president had lost sight of the objectives of the "Bolivarian Revolution" and become as corrupt as the political elites he once campaigned against. In reality, the break was due to the growing influence of Chavez's civilian advisors. In order to defeat Chavez, the AD and COPEI have turned to the only candidate who can viably challenge Chavez. AD and COPEI have already come out in support of Arias. Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledezma, a former member of the Democratic Action Party, has announced that he will withdraw from the presidential race in order to help consolidate support behind Arias. The prospect of replacing Chavez with Arias would have strong appeal to foreign oil companies, which have feared all along that Chavez might nationalize their holdings. Washington would also look favorably on his defeat; the president has challenged U.S. influence in the region. In May 1999, Venezuela refused to allow U.S. counter-narcotics flights over Venezuelan territory. Arias appears less prone to upset U.S.-Venezuelan relations. Still, Arias faces two hurdles in winning the presidency. One, by associating himself too closely with establishment parties, Arias leaves himself vulnerable to the charge that he is a candidate of Venezuela's elite. In addition, Chavez has been a popular president. Polls conducted in late February found that Chavez held an approval rating of 71 percent. To oust the president, the opposition is offering up the same formula that Chavez used to oust the establishment: campaigning against corruption and dressing it up with revolutionary rhetoric. The country's political establishment is fighting fire with fire. As the race heats up and the election draws near, neither candidate will be, according to the other, revolutionary enough. (c) 2000, Stratfor, Inc. http://www.stratfor.com/ "The only truly humanitarian war would be one
against
underdevelopment, hunger and disease." - Fidel Castro |
