----- Original Message -----
From: Sven Buttler <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: mll <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Monday, June 12, 2000 2:45 PM
Subject: MLL: World Oil Markets 1of3 part 2
[And here comes the second...]
The industrialized countries, currently the largest consumers of petroleum,
are expected to remain the largest users through 2020. Oil consumption in
the industrialized countries is projected to rise from 43.1 million barrels
per day in 1997 to 54.5 million barrels per day in 2020. The developing
countries, however, are expected to make the largest contribution to the
increment in oil demand, an increase of 24.7 million barrels per day from
1997 to 2020 (Figure 32), representing 62 percent of the growth in worldwide
petroleum consumption. Petroleum consumption in developing countries was
just over one-half (56 percent) of the total consumption in industrialized
countries in 1997 but is projected to reach 90 percent of that in the
industrialized countries by 2020.
Figure 32. Increments in Oil Consumption by Region, 1997-2020 [Sources]
Regionally, developing Asia and North America increased oil use by the
largest amount from 1970 to 1997, and they are expected to lead the
increases in consumption in the forecast period (Figure 33). Substantial
growth is also expected in Central and South America, the Middle East, and
Africa. Consumption in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (EE/FSU)
was lower in 1997 than in 1970, as a result of political and economic
difficulties during the 1990s, primarily in the FSU. Petroleum consumption
in the FSU is expected to remain flat for the next few years and then start
to rise after 2000. The EE/FSU total is projected to increase by 3.7 million
barrels per day between 1997 and 2020.
Figure 33. Increments in Oil Consumption by region, 1970-1997 and 1997-2020
[Sources]
Oil demand is driven by economic growth, along with rising population. The
industrialized countries consume oil at much higher levels per capita than
the developing countries, such as China and Brazil (Figure 34), but there
are also large differences among the industrialized countries. Per capita
oil use in the United States, for example, is much higher than in Japan or
Western Europe. Consumption per capita is projected to increase at a rapid
pace in developing countries, but in most cases the levels remain much lower
than those of the industrialized countries. One notable exception is South
Korea, where rising per capita incomes allow per capita oil consumption to
reach the levels of the industrialized countries, or even surpass them, in
the forecast period.
Figure 34. Per Capita Oil Use by Selected Country and Region, 1970-2020
[Sources]
In most countries oil intensity (oil consumed per dollar of GDP), decreases
over time (Figure 35). The industrialized countries, especially Western
Europe and Japan, tend to have lower levels of oil intensity, reflecting
their more energy-efficient, fuel-diverse, and service-oriented economies.
Intensity levels in developing countries are projected to decline at a
faster rate, however, as energy efficiency improvements penetrate the
economies.
Figure 35. Oil Intensity by Selected Country and Region, 1970-2020
[Sources]
The transportation sector is the primary user of petroleum, consuming 49
percent of the oil used in the world in 1997. The patterns of consumption
between the industrialized and developing countries are quite different,
however. In the heat and power segments of the markets in industrialized
countries, nonpetroleum energy sources were able to compete with and
substitute for oil throughout the 1980s; and by 1990, oil consumption in
other sectors was less than in the transportation sector. Most of the
expected gains in worldwide oil use occur in the transportation sector. Of
the total increase (11.4 million barrels per day) projected for the
industrialized countries from 1997 to 2020, 10.7 million barrels per day is
attributed to the transportation sector (Figure 36), where few alternatives
are economical until late in the forecast.
Figure 36. Oil Consumption for Transportation and Other Uses in
Industrialized and Developing Nations, 1990-2020 [Sources]
In the developing countries, the transportation sector also shows the
fastest projected growth in oil use, rising nearly to the level of
nontransportation oil consumption by 2020. In the developing world, however,
in contrast to the industrialized countries, oil use for purposes other than
transportation is projected to contribute 42 percent of the total increase
in petroleum consumption. The growth in nontransportation petroleum
consumption in developing countries is caused in part by the substitution of
petroleum products for noncommercial fuels (such as wood burning for home
heating and cooking) as incomes rise and the energy infrastructure matures.
Industrialized Countries
The largest increases in oil consumption among the industrialized countries
from 1997 to 2020 are projected for North America (Figure 37). The largest
absolute increase is projected for the United States (6.5 million barrels
per day), and the most rapid growth is expected in Mexico (3.3 percent per
year). Mexico's projected economic and population growth rates are the
highest among the industrialized countries and regions in the forecast,
accompanied by strong growth in both transportation and nontransportation
oil consumption. North America as a whole is projected to contribute 22
percent of the increase in worldwide oil use.
Growth in petroleum consumption in Western Europe from 1997 to 2020 is
expected to be considerably below the average annual growth rate of 1.4
percent per year from 1985 to 1997. The projected increase of 1.5 million
barrels per day amounts to an annual average growth rate of 0.4 percent.
Outside the transportation sector, oil use is projected to decline as
natural gas makes inroads into the heat and power sectors of the market.
Figure 37. Oil Consumption in the Industrialized World by Region, 1970-2020
[Sources]
Industrialized Asia is projected to add 1.1 million barrels per day to its
petroleum consumption between 1997 and 2020, and more than half the increase
is projected for Japan, the world's second-largest petroleum-consuming
country. After growing by 2.7 percent per year from 1985 to 1996, petroleum
consumption in Japan is projected to slow to 0.4 percent per year from 1997
to 2020, as the country reaches saturation in terms of per capita motor
vehicle use. Australasia's consumption of petroleum is projected to increase
by 0.5 million barrels per day over the forecast period (1.4 percent per
year).
Developing Countries
Petroleum consumption in developing countries is projected to more than
double, increasing from 24.2 million barrels per day in 1997 to 49.0 million
barrels per day in 2020 (3.1 percent average annual growth). Although the
region overall experienced a slowdown in oil demand with the recession that
began in mid-1997, developing Asian economies affected by the recession are
already beginning to show strong recovery, and IEO2000 expects the region to
contribute 30 percent of the worldwide increase in petroleum consumption
over the next two decades (Figure 38). China alone is projected to provide
14 percent of the world increase in oil demand, and China and India combined
are expected to add 8.0 million barrels per day to oil demand from 1997 to
2020, as compared with 6.5 million barrels per day for the United States.
Figure 38. Oil Consumption in the Developing World by Region, 1970-2020
[Sources]
China has the highest projected growth rate for oil consumption among the
nations of the world at 4.1 percent per year, followed closely by Brazil and
India at 4.0 and 3.7 percent per year, respectively. Road infrastructure
projects currently planned in China [3] are expected to contribute to more
rapid growth in transportation petroleum consumption. South Korea's
petroleum consumption, after a fourfold increase (1.7 million barrels per
day) from 1985 to 1997, dropped by more than 0.4 million barrels per day in
1998 [4] as a result of the economic and financial turmoil that spread
throughout Asia. The country's demand for petroleum is expected to recover
as economic conditions improve and is projected to grow at a more modest
rate of 2.0 percent per year rate from 1997 to 2020.
Strong growth is also expected in Central and South America, with a
projected increase of nearly 5 million barrels per day for the region as a
whole. Oil consumption in Brazil is projected to increase by 4.0 percent per
year from 1997 to 2020. Recent financial and economic difficulties are
expected to slow petroleum consumption growth in the near term, but rapid
growth is expected to return in both the transportation and end-use sectors
of the market. Petroleum consumption in the rest of Central and South
America is expected to nearly double over the forecast period. Again, much
of the increase projected to occur in the transportation sector.
Substantial increases in oil consumption are also expected in the Middle
East (4.2 million barrels per day) and Africa (3.5 million barrels per day).
Much of the increase will be used to fuel electricity generation in African
nations, where the infrastructure needed to support the use of other fuels
for power generation still is lacking.
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