>Subject: [pttp] Iraqi Sanctions Monitor Number 79 > >Iraqi Sanctions Monitor Number 79 > >Friday June 23 2000 > > > >VISIT THE MARIAM APPEAL SITE FOR ALL THE LATEST NEWS AND UPDATES ABOUT >WHAT IS GOING ON IN IRAQ. > >www.mariamappeal.com. > > >PRESS RELEASE PRESS RELEASE PRESS RELEASE PRESS RELEASE PRESS >RELEASE PRESS RELEASE PRESS RELEASE PRESS RELEASE > >23rd June 2000 > > >WEAPONS' INSPECTOR EXPLODES SANCTIONS > >The controversial former UNSCOM weapons' inspector Scott Ritter knows That >Iraq no longer has weapons of mass destruction - because he destroyed them >all! And because they are all gone, the sanctions which have killed up to >one million Iraqi children should be removed immediately, in line with the >United Nations mandate. > >Ritter will launch the Great Britain-Iraq Society, a non-political Group >working for peace and reconciliation between the two countries. He will be >speaking about why his job is over and why the continuing and brutal >sanctions against the Iraqi people should now end. > >The American, who was demonised by the leadership when he worked in Iraq, >will argue powerfully and cogently that to continue victimising a people is >a crime against humanity. Ritter, who has recently published a book on his >experiences in Iraq, Endgame, joins the powerful voices of UN humanitarian >workers like Denis Halliday and Hans Von Sponeck in calling for an end to >sanctions. > >Ritter's inaugural speech to the GBIS will take place at 8pm on Monday, June >26 in the Grand Committee Room of the House of Commons > >For further information contact Trish Meehan on 0207 872 5451 or 07932 >742633 > > >CRUDE FACTS - SADDAM IS WINNING CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKETS. > >By Malcolm Wallop and George Yates. >It's been nearly 10 years since the West went to war against Saddam Hussein. >A brilliant military campaign expelled his army from Kuwait in a little over >a month. A sustained eight-year inspections regime curbed the Iraqi >dictator's attempts to acquire weapons of mass destruction. But a nine-year >UN sanctions policy designed to strangle his regime economically has not >only failed to accomplish its objectives - it has actually helped Saddam >accomplish his. Consider this week's meeting in Vienna of the Organisation >of Petroleum Exporting Countries, where oil ministers voted to raise their >production ceiling by 700,000 barrels a day, to 25.4 million barrels a day. >Alas, increased output is not likely to bring down the price of oil. Many of >OPEC's members are now at full capacity. Indeed, the spot price of crude oil >for August delivery actually rose by 72 cents after the results of the >conference were announced. Clearly traders believe that oil supplies are >tight. Meanwhile Iraq, which does not participate in these conferences, has >increased its output to a post-Gulf War high of 2.9 million barrels a day, >up 26% since March. That makes Iraq the world's third largest oil exporter. >And it gives Saddam the clout to throw the oil markets into chaos, >particularly if he chooses dramatically to scale back production. Saddam is >once again a force to be reckoned with in the world economy. How did we come >to this? UN sanctions were supposed to allow Iraq to export just enough oil >to purchase urgently needed food and medicine. But the fine print of the >agreement was much more generous to Baghdad than most people ever realised. >By 1998, the value of oil Iraq could sell on the open market was capped at a >little over $5 billion every 180 days - a sum so high that Iraq could not >even reach it during the period of low oil prices in 1998 and early 1999. >Perversely, that ceiling allowed Saddam to more than triple his export >capacity in 1998 alone. Additional volumes, unreported to the UN, are also >believed to have been dumped on the market through Russian trading >companies, sold to Jordan, or smuggled through Iran to Turkey. Then, in >December 1999, the UN lifted its ceiling entirely on arguable humanitarian >grounds, without considering the effect on the oil market. >The flaw in UN sanctions policy should have been apparent from day one. The >policy created a disincentive for Iraq to conserve resources, maximise >price, or otherwise conduct affairs based on normal commercial >considerations. Because the sanctions were based on a dollar and not a >barrel ceiling, low prices made little difference to Saddam. He could create >an oil glut without having to face the consequences, even if the glut had >very serious consequences to the rest of the oil-producing world. Not >surprisingly, it is Saddam who is largely responsible for the collapse in >oil prices in 1998 and 1999. >That collapse devastated the oil industry and resulted in the reduction of >worldwide supplies. Approximately 560,000 daily barrels of oil production >were lost in the U.S. alone. At the same time, non-OPEC production declined >for the first time in decades. Even OPEC countries felt the pain, as they >were unable to maintain existing reserves, much less drill for new supplies. >Shutting down the upstream industry for two investment cycles has had >serious implications for spare capacity - that is, capacity that could be >produced within two months time. While no one has perfect knowledge of spare >capacity, we do know that today's spare capacity is small relative to the >current 77 million-barrel-a-day market. Measuring this capacity against the >needs of a growing market, the natural depletion of oil wells, and various >transportation and supply infrastructure bottlenecks, worldwide oil supplies >are tenuous. Few realise that the world needs enough spare capacity to >ensure a stable supply of oil. And this failure has created a potent gift >for Saddam Hussein. We have made it possible for him to become a swing >producer - able to set the world price of oil. He can and probably will use >this economic weapon. A few months ago, Iraqi Oil Minister Amer Rasheed said >that Iraq planned to ramp up production by another million barrels a day by >the end of the year. Ominously, Mr. Rasheed also threatened to curtail >exports if the U.S. doesn't compromise on sanctions. Is this an idle threat? >Almost certainly not. Saddam has now achieved what the allies thought they >had prevented by forcing him out of Kuwait - control of the oil market. He >can use this leverage to set oil prices or undermine sanctions. As fuel >supply is relatively inelastic in the short term, very high prices would be >the obvious result of any export curtailment until the world's oil industry >can respond. Finding and developing supply requires a substantial lead-time. >Oil production is not a "just-in-time" business. Obviously, the world has a >problem. Can it be solved without bowing to Saddam's demands? Fortunately, >the answer is yes. We absolutely must maintain surplus capacity worldwide >and support the process that is necessary for the maintenance of that >capacity. We also need an information system that gives us more accurate >data on excess capacity and production worldwide than we have at >present. Western countries that don't have policies to encourage indigenous >production of oil and gas need to adopt them. In the short term, our only >recourse to respond to an oil shortage and maintain necessary sanctions on >Iraq may well be using the world-wide strategic petroleum reserves created >after the OPEC oil embargo - a system that so far has never been used. >Whether Saddam will ultimately wrestle control of the oil market remains an >open question. But he's never been in a stronger position to do so. It's >time the West starts playing its cards more wisely. >- >Mr. Wallop, a former U.S. Senator from Wyoming, served as ranking minority >member of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. George Yates, >an independent oil producer from New Mexico, has served as chairman of the >Independent Petroleum Association of America. Source: WALL STREET >JOURNAL EUROPE 23/06/2000 > >AUSTRALIA: NEWS - NEW IRAQ CRISIS AHEAD - BUTLER. > >By MEAGHAN SHAW. >Another Iraqi crisis was likely in about six weeks, the former United >Nations weapons inspector, Richard Butler, said yesterday. Mr Butler >predicted the "crunch point" would come in August when it was most >likely Iraq would refuse to allow the UN's new weapons inspection agency to >enter the country. "Iraq has said for the last six months that it will not >permit it to enter Iraq ... and I suspect that Iraq isn't speaking >tactically," he said. "I suspect that it will not let that new organisation >to enter Iraq and therefore we'll probably have another Iraqi crisis on our >hands." Mr Butler, the former chief executive of the UN Special Commission, >said the deputy chairman of the new organisation, the UN Monitoring, >Verification and >Inspection Commission, Hans Blix, would have his team and inspection >procedures ready by August. Mr Butler said he was unsure how such a crisis >would affect the United States presidential election in November, but there >were three possibilities. One was that Russia would support Iraq's stance, >which would be acceptable to the Americans because it would push the crunch >point back until after the elections. >The second was that George W. Bush and Al Gore would campaign on the issue >to try to "demonstrate their muscularity". And the third was that the >commission would move to review sanctions against Iraq, which it must do by >17 December according to the provisions under which it was established. This >would be after the election. Mr Butler also called on the Security >Commission to urgently review the use of sanctions as an instrument of >enforcing compliance with international law. He proposed targeting sanctions >against the leadership rather than the whole population. Mr Butler was >speaking at The Age/Dymock's literary lunch following the release of his >book, Saddam Defiant - The threat of weapons of mass destruction, and the >crisis of global security. Outside, watched by police, a small group of >activists protested against Mr >Butler's involvement in sanctions against the Iraqi people. Source: AGE >(MELBOURNE) 23/06/2000 P4 > >MYSTERY VIRUS KILLS 30 IN IRAQI HOSPITAL - EGYPTIAN AGENCY. > >A mystery virus has killed 30 people and threatens the lives of 25 others in >the main hospital in the Iraqi capital Baghdad, the Egyptian news agency >MENA reported on Thursday. It quoted the Iraqi paper `Babel' as saying that >the virus had contaminated the six main operating theatres at the Saddam >surgery centre, which it described as "the biggest in Iraq and the Middle >East". > >Doctors at the centre have so far not been able to pinpoint the cause of the >infection, which has killed all patients undergoing open-heart surgery, and >all operations have been cancelled since the existence of the virus was >discovered. > > >------------------------------------------------------------------------ >Was the salesman clueless? Productopia has the answers. >http://click.egroups.com/1/4633/3/_/22961/_/961764678/ >------------------------------------------------------------------------ > >Knowledge is Power! >Elimination of the exploitation of man by man >http://www.egroups.com/group/pttp/ >POWER TO THE PEOPLE! > >Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >Change Delivery Options: >http://www.egroups.com/mygroups > > __________________________________ KOMINFORM P.O. Box 66 00841 Helsinki - Finland +358-40-7177941, fax +358-9-7591081 e-mail [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.kominf.pp.fi ___________________________________ [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subscribe/unsubscribe messages mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] ___________________________________
