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Subject: [STOPNATO] The "Great Game" for Caspian Oil: US Imperialism


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U.S. Imperialism and the "Great Game" for Caspian Oil


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Pipeline of Greed

U.S. Imperialism and the "Great Game" for Caspian Oil

Revolutionary Worker #1035, December 19, 1999

"A Cocktail of Oil and Politics--U.S. Seeks to End Russian Domination of the Caspian"

New York Times headline, November 20, 1999

"It is not just another oil and gas deal, and this is not just another pipeline. It is
a strategic framework that advances America's national security interests. It is a
strategic vision for the future of the Caspian region."

Bill Richardson, U.S. Energy Secretary, November 18, 1999

"Steal an apple, they call you a thief.

Steal a country, they call you an emperor."

Old saying

"Note to schoolteachers: Find the Caspian on the map, draw a circle around it, and
show it to the children. Twenty years from now, or perhaps even 10, some of them may
find themselves deployed there."

Paul Starobin, "The New Great Game," National Journal, Washington magazine for U.S.
policymakers *****

On November 18, 1999 President Clinton was in Istanbul, Turkey--as four countries
signed a major new "intergovernmental declaration of intent." The grins on imperialist
faces showed that this was a major step in U.S. plans to seize the oil fields of the
Caspian Sea.

After years of U.S. pressure, intrigue and bribery, the regimes of Turkey, Georgia,
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan agreed to build a major new 1,200-mile pipeline from the
Caspian Sea oil center of Baku to the ship-loading oil terminals of Ceyhan in southern
Turkey. If this pipeline project goes ahead, oil that was once the most valuable
resource of the former Soviet empire will reach the world through facilities
controlled by U.S. imperialism and its allies.

In the 1992 Gulf War, the U.S. tightened its control over Persian Gulf oil. Now the
U.S. is determined that any major new oil fields being opened to the world market will
also be controlled by the U.S.

The U.S. is not interested in Caspian oil to supply its own internal industry. The
U.S. is grabbing for control of the Caspian oil fields because other countries need
this oil--and because the U.S. wants to control them. Other imperialist
rivals--including Germany and Japan--are "energy poor" and need access to oilfields
outside their borders. Most Third World countries are heavily dependent on imported
oil.

Opening the Caspian Sea oil up, under U.S. control, will also give the U.S. more power
over the Persian Gulf and Arab states in world affairs. It will have more power to
play oil-producing countries off against each other.

In addition, by depriving Russia of control over these oil fields, the U.S. would be
delivering a major blow to plans of the Russian ruling class--to re-emerge as a world
class imperialist power. Cheap Caspian oil was crucial for operating the military bloc
that the Soviet ruling class built after restoring capitalism in 1956. Losing that
strategic oil would threaten today's Russian imperialists with a permanent
demotion--one they will not tolerate without a fight.

The intense bombing of Chechen villages is only one of several operations being
carried out by Russian imperialism to keep its hand in the Caspian region.

The U.S. move into the Caspian is a power move that threatens and provokes other big
powers. And at the same time, it is a sinister threat to the masses of people
throughout the world.

This is a power grab by an oppressor who is determined to enthrone itself as the
"single global superpower" well into the next century. It is an imperialist move to
control the lives, resources, labor and future of hundreds of millions of people.
*****

THE NEW "GREAT GAME" FOR CENTRAL ASIA @BODY LEFT = "The U.S. strategy toward Russia is
aimed at weakening its international position and ousting it from strategically
important regions of the world, above all, the Caspian region, the Transcaucasus and
Central Asia."

Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev

The Caspian Sea contains two huge sets of oil fields. One stretches underwater--east
of Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. The other is the Tengiz oilfields--far away on the
Caspian's northwest shore in the country of Kazakhstan. In addition there are massive
amounts of natural gas scattered throughout the Caspian region.

The known reserves of Kazakhstan alone are larger than the oilfields of Nigeria or
Libya--but the unexplored oil may be as much as five times larger--putting Caspian oil
fields in the same league as the fields of Iran or Kuwait.

With the success of the Russian revolution of 1917, the oil-producing countries of
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan became republics within the Soviet Union. The oil pipelines
there all ran north--into Russia. From 1917 to 1956, this oil was a key resource for
the creation of the world's first socialist economy. During World War 2, Hitler tried
to seize the oil of Baku--and during this adventure his armies received their decisive
defeat in Stalingrad. After capitalist forces seized power in the Soviet Union in
1956, the Caspian oil became a glue holding together their empire and
social-imperialist war alliance.

After 1989, the Soviet Union collapsed and its central Russian republic slipped into
economic crisis, political turmoil and military disarray. The former Soviet republics
of the Caspian region declared independence. The oil and natural gas of the Caspian
came "up for grabs." U.S. imperialism had long been plotting to carve off the Soviet
Union's whole Central Asian tier of non-Russian republics, and their oil reserves.
When the Soviet Union collapsed, the U.S. imperialists went into full gear.

The British imperialist-poet Rudyard Kipling talked of the "Great Game"--the intense
struggle during the late 1800s between Russian imperialism and British imperialism to
control the resources and people of Central Asia--from Afghanistan to Turkey. After
1989, imperialist planners everywhere started talking about "the new Great Game."

Like arrogant conquerors, a consortium of 11 major oil corporations set up outposts on
Caspian shores. Atlantic Richfield, Chevron, Exxon, Mobil, Pennzoil, Philips
Petroleum, Texaco, and especially the new Anglo-American "powerhouse" BP Amoco spent
billions of dollars buying up Soviet-era oil companies and drilling rights. The
Clinton White House set up a high-level "interdepartmental work group" --run by the
National Security Council--to oversee the larger geo-political U.S. takeover of the
Caspian Sea.

The intrigue that followed has been done with very little public awareness in the U.S.
These are operations worked out within the U.S. ruling class. U.S. imperialism made
its moves using oil companies, semi-secret delegations, military connections and all
kinds of funding of pro-western media. For ten years now, high-level networks of U.S.
agents have been expanded, trained and activated throughout the countries of Central
Asia.

PIPELINE, PIPELINE, WHO RUNS THE PIPELINE? "The game's called pipeline poker. The
Caspian is crazy. It's landlocked. We can drill all the oil you'd ever need. But can
we get it out?"

Texas oilman in Baku's "Ragin' Cajun" bar "We cannot help seeing the uproar stirred up
in some western countries over the energy resources of the Caspian. Some seek to
exclude Russia from the game and undermine its interests. The so-called `pipeline war'
in the region is part of this game."

Russian President Boris Yeltsin, 1998

The oil corporations are spending billions--producing oil rigs and hiring large
numbers of people to extract oil from the Caspian Sea. But, when the millions of
barrels start flowing out of the Caspian, how will they reach the world market?

The Caspian Sea is landlocked, and far from any of the world industrial centers. This
oil must be transported out of the region by pipeline--through politically explosive
and contested areas. Whoever controls the pipes ultimately controls the oil.

Russia proposed to build a new northern pipeline parallel to the old pipeline from
Baku to Novorossisk--and to expand companion pipelines from Tengiz to Novorossisk.

Iran proposed a southern pipeline over its territory--from Baku to the Iranian oil
terminal on Kharg Island. This route would make the Caspian Sea into a hinterland of
the Persian Gulf--and would secure the position of Iran and other Persian Gulf
countries in the center of the world oil economy.

Some oil companies supported this Iranian plan because the Iranian route was estimated
to be the cheapest. They also argued that this pipeline would give them more power
within Iran--strengthening imperialist control over that important country.

The U.S.--and specifically the Clinton White House--was determined to oppose any
"north/south" pipelines. The White House adopted a plan, cooked up by long-time ruling
class strategist Zbigniew Brzezinski, to create an "east-west" pipe which would bypass
both Russia and Iran.

The U.S. intends to strip Russia of control over this oil. And the U.S. wants the
Caspian oilfields to be completely independent of the Persian Gulf--to diminish the
importance of Persian Gulf states in the world economy.

The U.S.-proposed pipeline would start in Baku--traveling west through Azerbaijan. It
would deliberately take a detour around Armenia--a country allied with Russia. The
pipeline would circle into Georgia, and then travel southwest across Turkey. Most of
its length would be through the Kurdish areas of Turkey--where there has been ongoing
armed struggle against the Turkish oppression of Kurds. And the pipeline would end in
a port near Ceyhan on the eastern Mediterranean.

U.S. planners propose a second pipeline --for natural gas--traveling over 1,000 miles
from Turkmenistan to the Turkish city of Erzurum.

TURKEY: REGIONAL AGENT FOR IMPERIALIST OPERATIONS Turkey was put center stage by this
U.S. plan in two ways: First, Caspian oil would be passing through Turkish territory.
Second, in the maneuvering to develop the Ceyhan pipeline, Turkey's government and
military has been assigned the task of infiltrating and politically influencing
Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan-- the "Newly Independent States" (NIS) that will be
producing the oil.

Turkey was chosen for this because it is considered a "reliable ally" of the U.S. and
Germany--it is firmly dominated by U.S. and German imperialism and overseen by a
fascist military that operates within NATO. In addition, the majority population of
Turkey is closely related--by language and culture--to the Turkic peoples of Central
Asia, including the peoples of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

For five years, the U.S. has pressured the Caspian regional governments to endorse the
Baku-to-Ceyhan route and has pressured the international oil monopolies to finance it.
Meanwhile, it has renewed its support for the Turkish government's military and
political campaign to suppress the Kurdish people--whose lands in Turkey are
designated as the route for the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline.

One of the main reasons that the U.S. attacked Serbia last year was to prevent Turkey
from being drawn into the Balkan wars. When Yugoslavia first started to fall apart in
the early 1990s, U.S. Secretary of State Baker said, "We don't have a dog in that
fight"--meaning that there were no U.S. interests tied up in the fighting between
Serbia and Croatia. But Turkey has close ties with Albania--and when the Balkan
fighting spread southward into Kosovo, the U.S. got involved--to guarantee that Turkey
would not get drawn into a larger war with its neighbors, Greece and Bulgaria. The
U.S. wanted Turkey to focus on its assigned task: pacifying Turkish Kurdistan and
infiltrating former Soviet Central Asia. [See "U.S. Predators Stalk the Balkans: The
imperialist motives behind the NATO war on Yugoslavia," RW #1002, April 18, 1999, RW
Online: www.mcs.net/~rwor]

KA-CHING, KA-CHING

"For the oil companies, the chosen route must be profitable. But for the Clinton
administration, the prime concern has been strategic."

New York Times, November 21, 1999

>From the beginning, the major oil monopolies of the world had deep misgivings about
the White House plan for a Baku-Ceyhan pipeline--which, on paper at least, they were
expected to finance.

They were concerned that the Baku-Ceyhan route was the most expensive route
proposed--possibly exceeding $4 billion, almost twice the estimated cost of the
Baku-to-Kharg route, proposed by Iran.

The oil companies were also concerned that the volume of oil passing through the
Baku-Ceyhan route might not be enough to make it profitable--especially if oil prices
stay low and other pipelines are also built in the Caspian region. In November 1998,
Russia, Kazakhstan and Chevron agreed to build a $2 billion pipeline from Tengiz to
the Russian port of Novorossisk. Would the larger Tengiz oilfield send its oil out
through Russia, leaving the Ceyhan route with only the Baku output?

The U.S. government was determined to bring the oil companies "on board"--saying that
the pipelines of the Caspian could not be decided by the narrower "ka-ching, ka-ching"
calculations of U.S. and European bankers and oil companies. The U.S. government
insisted that there were global, geo-strategic interests at stake here--specifically,
who would control the energy resources of the world.

The Clinton White House operated like world class gangsters, pulling strings and
making threats--to make all the other pipelines "disappear" and make the Ceyhan
pipeline profitable for the western oil capitalists.

AN OFFER YOU CAN'T REFUSE

First the U.S. government simply and firmly ruled out any Iranian pipeline. They
announced they would not lift their embargo on Iran--and they would not allow major
U.S. companies to participate in any major projects there. That was the end of the
Iranian pipeline.

Then the Russian plans for the northern pipeline "suddenly" ran into huge problems:
War broke out in Chechnya and Dagestan--border areas of Russia where oil from Baku
travels on its way to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossisk.

War broke out in Dagestan in August 1999--just as the aging Baku-Novorossisk pipeline
broke down and the Russian oil corporations were trying to move Baku's oil through
Dagestan by rail. Then the fighting spread from Dagestan to nearby Chechnya. The
Russian army initiated a brutal campaign to crush resistance and pacify the region.
About 200,000 Chechens are refugees, as many as 4,000 may be dead, and much of this
small nation has been devastated.

Meanwhile, plans for northern Russian-controlled oil pipelines have been torpedoed by
this fighting--during exactly the timeframe when the oil companies have to decide on
which pipeline to begin building. There is no documented evidence that the U.S.
unleashed and armed the Muslim secessionist forces of Chechnya. But clearly the timing
of this new war has been very useful for U.S. plans in the Caspian.

The Russian Defense Minister has accused the U.S. of wanting the "permanent smoldering
of a manageable armed conflict" in this region.

Meanwhile, with U.S. support, a new pipeline was opened between Baku and the Georgian
port of Supsa in April 1999. This pipeline will carry the Baku oil that was previously
passing north through Chechnya and Dagestan. The opening of the Supsa pipe means that
oil will be able to flow out of Azerbaijan--regardless of whether Russia regains
control of Chechnya or not.

This Supsa pipeline is small, and cannot carry the massive output expected by
2004--but it will handle much of the production until the Ceyhan pipeline is in place.
This new Supsa pipeline is especially useful in providing for the oil needs of
Ukraine, and helping the U.S. pry the Ukraine (a large country with extremely
important industrial and agricultural production) further away from Russia.

Finally, the Turkish government cynically announced that they had "discovered" major
environmental problems with letting huge oil tankers pass through the Bosphorus
straits--the mouth of the Black Sea which they control. In other words, Turkey is
threatening to stop oil-tankers from Novorossisk, which quickly made investors wary of
building a pipeline that ended in Novorossisk.

After all these developments--the only pipeline that seemed practical was suddenly the
U.S.-backed Baku-to-Ceyhan route. The oil companies and the Caspian oil-producing
countries had been presented with "an offer they could not refuse."

THE ISTANBUL AGREEMENT In November 1999, a conference of the Organization of Security
and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) gathered many government representatives to
Istanbul--and by then the U.S. government had, quite simply, forced the key regional
governments to give the imperialist oil companies the guarantees and finance that
these oil monopolies wanted. A new agreement was finally possible, and Clinton flew in
for last minute arm-twisting. The governments of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia and
Kazakhstan agreed to officially back the Baku-Ceyhan route.

Turkey's government promised to pay all construction costs over $1.4 billion for the
Turkish pipe segment. This meant that, the Ceyhan route was suddenly as cheap, for the
oil companies, as the Iranian route would have been. Kazakhstan promised that in the
next century it would send 20 million tons of oil a year through a new, proposed,
underwater pipe to Baku and from there on to Ceyhan.

Russian plans for a Tengiz-Novorossisk pipeline were knocked back.

In short, the imperialist oil companies were guaranteed protection from cost
over-runs, and were guaranteed that the Ceyhan pipeline would get most or all of the
production of the Caspian. The cost of these "guarantees" would (presumably) come out
of the wealth of these regions. And the whole package was backed and blessed by the
U.S. godfathers themselves.

The plan is now in place to have this new pipeline ready by 2004--when huge new oil
installations now being built in the Caspian region are expected to start sending 1
million barrels a day to Ceyhan.

THE PLOT THICKENS

"Domination on the Black and Caspian seas...is a vital interest for the whole southern
half of Russia. If Russia's horizons ended on the snowy summits of the Caucasus range,
then the whole western half of the Asian continent would be outside our sphere of
influence and...would not long wait for another master."

Russian General Rostislav Fadeev, 1850s, at the start of the first "Great Game" for
Central Asia

"Chechnya is just the beginning of what we're going to face in this region. Russia is
not going to sit back quietly as from its perspective the United States tries to
`undermine its vital strategic interests there.

Martha Brill Olcott, U.S. thinktank expert on the Caspian region, New York Times, Nov.
19

"`Central Asia may not yet be in crisis, but it may just be a short bus ride away,'
said Gavin Graham, regional manager for Royal Dutch/Shell Group. Without naming Russia
and Iran, he told an oil and gas conference in Turkmenistan that regional rivals can
conspire to keep margins in landlocked Central Asia unprofitable."

Wall Street Journal

"It seems Clinton has for a minute forgotten that Russia has a full arsenal of nuclear
weapons... It has never been and never will be the case that he will dictate to the
whole world how to live... We will dictate to the world. Not him alone."

President Boris Yeltsin, defending Russia's reconquest of Chechnya, December 9, 1999

The Istanbul agreements opened the door for the multi-billion-dollar fundraising for
the Baku-to-Ceyhan pipeline. That capital must be raised by October 2000, and the
construction must start soon after that, if this pipeline is going to be ready by
2004--when major new production of oil is expected in the Caspian region.

However, there will be counter-moves by the Russian imperialists--seeking to retake
their chair at the table and seeking to sabotage the completion of the Ceyhan route.

The Russian military intends to pacify Chechnya and surrounding regions--and
reestablish a viable overland pipeline route through Russia. And, Russia is
strengthening its military presence in the Caspian region itself--reportedly sending
new MIG jet fighters and air defense missiles to its base in Armenia.

In addition, the Baku-Ceyhan route requires a strong pro-western government in the
Caucasus country of Georgia. The U.S. currently has such a government there--headed by
President Eduard Shevardnadze, who was the Soviet foreign minister under Gorbachev.
But now, toppling his government has become a high priority for Russian operations in
this region. In 1998 alone, Shevardnadze faced an armed insurrection, a major
secessionist movement and a commando-style assassination attempt.

"Permanent smoldering" in Georgia suits Russian imperialist interests--just as
"permanent smoldering" in Chechnya suits U.S. imperialist interests.

NATO GUNS IN THE CASPIAN

For now, the "new Great Game" for the Caspian has largely been carried out using
dollars and strong-arm diplomacy. But the major powers understand well that the future
of this region may ultimately be decided by guns--in coups and warfare. And, for that
reason, the U.S. has conducted a huge but unpublicized campaign of drawing the Central
Asian countries under its military wing.

Several former Soviet allies in Eastern Europe have been openly recruited directly
into NATO's war alliance--but the U.S. has pursued a slightly different course in
Central Asia. Six years ago, NATO created a military sub-alliance called "Partners for
Peace" (PFP)--and under that arrangement has been training, arming and deploying
military forces around both the Caspian and Black seas. The difference between NATO
and PFP is, as one NATO official put it, "razor thin."

Through PFP, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have formal
military liaisons at NATO's Supreme Headquarters. Under NATO auspices, PFP has created
a joint Central Asian Peacekeeping Battalion (CENTRASBAT)--which is the embryo of a
NATO-led military force in the region. During the 50th anniversary conference of NATO,
in April 1999, an anti-Russian alliance, GUUAM, was formed out of the former southern
Soviet republics--Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova.

Azerbaijan and Georgia have developed especially close military ties with NATO. The
U.S. and Turkish militaries have been supplying both countries with NATO-compatible
weapons. Azerbaijan has signed a mutual defense treaty with Turkey and a "defense
cooperation agreement" with the U.S.

Under PFP, 4,000 military officers from Caucasian countries have received military
training in Turkey--a majority of them from Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani soldiers
participated as part of a Turkish Army battalion during the Balkan war. It was the
first direct deployment of a Caspian unit by NATO.

At the same time, Turkey--a notoriously brutal and repressive state--has been training
thousands of pro-western government officials, legal prosecutors and police for the
ruling classes of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan.

In 1997, NATO organized naval exercises--Operation Sea Breeze--on the Black
sea--making a statement about who controlled that sea and the oil traffic that crosses
it. As Russian troops were leaving Georgia, the flagship of the U.S. 6th fleet entered
the Georgian port of Poti. There have already been over a hundred different joint
NATO-Georgian military programs and activities.

Common NATO-Georgian military exercises were held around the oil port of Supsa in
Georgia during 1998. In May 1999 the U.S. army held joint maneuvers in
Kazakhstan--which were officially called "international disaster relief exercises."
That same month, Turkmenistan officially ended the agreement allowing Russian troops
to patrol its southern border with Iran and Afghanistan.

In Azerbaijan, top presidential adviser Vafa Guluzade caused a furor in February 1999
by proposing that the U.S. set up a NATO airbase on the Apsheron Peninsula outside
Baku. Though the Russian and Iranian governments immediately objected, the U.S.
government simply said the plan was not currently under consideration.

Then, in November, a leader of the Azerbaijani parliament proposed that NATO form a
special unit to protect the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline. That same month, besieged Chechen
President Maschadov called for NATO intervention against the advancing Russian troops
in his country.

For the moment, the U.S. and NATO seem to be riding high. But there are already forces
within the U.S. ruling class asking whether the U.S. can really expect to back up the
major military and economic commitments it has made far away--right on the southern
borders of Russia. And they are openly saying that if U.S. soldiers are going to be
prepared to kill and die in any new war for the Caspian Sea--the U.S. government must
already now start creating public opinion about the importance of this region.

WHY DO WE CALL THEM IMPERIALISTS?

"The strategic value of the Caspian has been there from the beginning--it never was
just about oil."

Zbigniew Brzezinski, U.S. ruling class architect of the New Great Game

"Why do we call them imperialists? Because they exploit and oppress people all over
the world. They have developed an empire and they will do anything to try and preserve
it. It is the same people robbing and exploiting, degrading and humiliating us every
day that are doing that same thing, and want to do more of it, to the people all
around the world. That's why we call it imperialism, because that's what it is."

Chairman Bob Avakian,

Revolutionary Communist Party,USA

The U.S. masks its operations in talk of freedom and human rights. This is true in the
Caspian too. U.S. politicians talk of training the people of the region in "U.S. style
democracy"--while sending them fascist Turkish trainers. The U.S. talks about ending
the Russian military abuse of Chechen people--while energetically supporting the
Turkish military abuse of the Kurdish people. The U.S. talks about bringing "free
trade" to the world and "knocking down barriers"--while spending billions of dollars
in semi-secret plots to control the oil trade of the world, and seize control of the
oil reserves of the Caspian.

The U.S. is taking advantage of a rival imperialist's moment of extreme weakness.
Russia is deeply in debt, gripped by a paralyzing economic and political crisis--and
its military (though heavily armed with nukes) is having great difficulty reasserting
control in regions that are officially within Russia.

The New York Times called the current White House policies "flogging the half-dead
Russian bear." But if and when this Russian bear emerges from its crisis, it will be
determined to reverse the U.S. takeover of the Caspian. There is already an angry
demand rising from the Russian ruling class for a government and military that can
aggressively reassert their imperialist interests in the Caspian region.

Events in the Caspian region may reveal that there are other imperialists in the
world--in Europe or Japan--who do not consider it in their interests for the U.S. to
so tightly control all the major oil sources in the world.

In one sense, U.S. expansion in the Caspian is part of the outcome of its victory in
the 1980s "Cold War." But in another sense, it is setting the stage for
inter-imperialist rivalries and conflicts in the next century.

Meanwhile, the robbery of wealth, wholesale corruption of governments, threat of
reactionary war, foreign exploitation of working people and massive environmental
damage--all of these developments reveal the intensely reactionary role that the
imperialists, of all these "great powers," are playing in this region. The wealth and
future of Central Asia are being fought over by imperialists from the U.S., Europe and
Russia--whose interests have nothing in common with the oppressed people who live and
work there.




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