IRAQ SANCTIONS MONITOR Number 129
Friday, September 29, 2000

LATEST++++++++++++++++LATEST+++++++

Saddam grabs the limelight with oil warnings
>From MIDDLE EAST ECONOMIC DIGEST, September 29th, 2000

President Saddam Hussain is once again in the international
limelight, raising fears of military action against Kuwait
and demonstrating his ability to disrupt international oil markets.
Iraq's latest moves are believed to be partly tied to the
US presidential election schedule, which climaxes in early November.

Saddam warned fellow OPEC members on 17 September not to bow to
pressure from Western powers to lower oil prices. One week earlier,
OPEC had decided to raise output by 800,000 barrels a day (b/d)
to bring soaring prices under control.

The president's warning helped push oil prices the following day
to a 10-year peak. Market analysts said that with little
extra output capacity within OPEC, Iraq's exports, which
have averaged about 2.3 million b/d in recent weeks, could allow Baghdad a
key role in markets.

The Iraqi president likes to keep his country's case on the
international agenda - maintaining pressure on the UN to relax or
end sanctions imposed after his invasion of Kuwait in August 1990.
Speculation is that Saddam Hussain may encourage higher oil prices
to put economic pressure on the US and other Western countries
opposed to the lifting of sanctions.

Before Saddam's warning to OPEC, Oil Minister Amer Mohammed Rasheed
had accused Kuwait of sabotage by drilling for oil in a border zone
and depleting Iraqi reserves. "Suitable measures" would be taken, he
warned. The official press later said Iraq's complaint did not
constitute a threat to Kuwait, but the statement on 16 September
brought assurances from the US that it stood by Kuwaiti sovereignty
and helped push up oil prices.

On 18 September, Kuwait said it would welcome surveys by impartial
experts of oil fields on the border to disprove the allegation that
it was stealing Iraqi oil, using horizontal or angled drilling techniques.
Kuwaiti officials said Iraq's accusations were aimed at preventing
plans to develop oil fields close to the joint border with the help
of major oil companies.

There is also speculation that Baghdad is trying to apply pressure
ahead of a late-September meeting in Geneva to discuss a claim by
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation for damage caused by the 1990/91 Iraqi
occupation. The UN compensation commission proposed in June that
the company be awarded $15,900 million. Baghdad has also written to 
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan complaining about damage inflicted 
on the Iraqi-Saudi pipeline because of the suspension of oil exports since 
August 1990. The letter, presented on 19 September, also refers to the
Saudi appropriation of what Baghdad says was 11 million barrels of 
crude stored at the Al-Moajjez terminal.

Russia has recently started a new campaign to convince the UN to
lift sanctions - claiming that the Russian economy has lost $30,000 million
in Iraqi business since 1990. In the third week of September, a Russian
plane 
carrying 11 oil executives and five tonnes of aid flew to Baghdad on a 
high-profile mission. Another such mission was planned for later in the 
month, Iraqi officials said. A senior Russian official said in Moscow on
19 September that the mission had not broken UN sanctions. 
UN officials say Moscow had notified the UN sanctions committee 
of a relief flight, without mentioning the presence of any oil officials.

Iraq's supporters are counting on a change of policy under a new
US administration after the November presidential election.
The Clinton administration maintains its tough stance. On 14 September, it
told Congress it plans to give the opposition Iraqi National Congress
(INC) the first half of an $8 million grant - representing a
big increase in the level of financial support for Saddam Hussain's 
opponents. The INC will spend the money on broadcasting, humanitarian 
relief and other non-military programmes, officials said after a meeting in 
New York between Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and the INC.


Only factors beyond its control may affect oil supply
By BridgeNews
Caracas--Sept. 2--Iraq's supply of oil to world markets would
only be disrupted by matters "beyond our control," not by political
reasons, Iraq VicePresident Taha Yassin Ramadan said Thursday.
*             *               *
The slow pace of approval by the United Nations of contracts
for spareparts to repair an  upgrade Iraq's oil infrastructure could impact
future oil production and supply, he said, although he could not say when
that could occur or how much supply may be in jeopardy.
In a press conference following the heads of state summit here,
Ramadan would not commit Baghdad to participating in the next round of
the United Nations' oil-for-food program, which allows Iraq to sell
unlimited amounts of oil to purchase humanitarian supplies and pay costs
associated with the 1990 Gulf war. The current, eighth phase of the program
ends in early December.

"Everything will be studied in the proper time," he said. "For
each (6-month) stage, Iraq is forced to take whatever decisions are
necessary." The Memorandum of Understanding that administers
 the program is "badly applied, but what else can we do? After the 
eighth stage we are going to decide at the proper time."


Iraq is no threat to Kuwait: Iraqi vice president
>From AFP ENGLISH, September 29th, 2000

CARACAS, Sept 28 (AFP) - Iraq does not threaten Kuwait in any
way, Iraqi Vice-President Taha Yassin Ramadan said after an OPEC summit here
Thursday.

"There is no threat from Iraq to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia," he
said at a news conference. This is an invention by the United States to
maintain US and British forces in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia and to maintain
the embargo against Iraq," he said.

Kuwait has said it took measures, with help from its allies, to
counter any attack from Iraq, which it accused of continuing to threaten its
neighbors. Asked whether there had been any talks between the Iraqi
and Kuwaiti delegations at the Caracas summit, Ramadan said: "There is no
dialogue nor contact between us and the Kuwaiti regime, neither in Caracas
nor anywhere else."

He also reiterated claims that Kuwait "steals" Iraqi oil. Iraq
claims that its neighbor pumps oil from Iraq along the border.

Ramadan attended the two-day OPEC summit instead of Iraqi
President Saddam Hussein, who has not left his country since the 1990-1991
Gulf war.


Iraq dismisses suggestions it will stop oil supplies

CARACAS, Sept 28 (AFP) - Iraqi Vice President Taha Yassin Ramadan
on Thursday dismissed suggestions his country may halt exports of
crude to send prices skyrocketing.

"We will not stop supplying oil," he said at a news conference
following a two-day summit of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC.) But he said Iraq's oil output was being affected by a
multilateral embargo against his country, saying the Gulf country could not
import the equipment needed for the maintenance of its oil installations.

"Twenty percent of contracts are affected by this embargo, and
this affects Iraq's capacity to produce oil," he said.


Yemeni plane leaves for Baghdad with FM on board

SANAA, Sept 29 (AFP) - A Yemeni plane left Sanaa Friday for Baghdad,
the second flight in three days from an Arab country after more
than 10 years of sanctions against Iraq, an official Yemeni source
said.

The delegation on the flight is led by Yemeni Foreign Minister Abdel
Qader Bajammal, the source said.


IRAN'S OIL PRODUCTION AVERAGES 3.575 MLN BPD IN JAN-MAY: REPORT


ROME, Sept 28 Asia Pulse - Italian Oil Union announced Tuesday that
Iran averaged production of 3,575,000 bpd of crude over the
January-May period.

A union official told IRNA on the threshold of the OPEC summit in
Caracas that no change was observed in Iran's production in the
period. Previous estimates said Iran averaged 3.65 million bpd in
June, added the source.

He said that Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE with 2.5, 1.24 and
2.23 million barrels of day production on average a day witnessed
17, 5.1 and 3.8 percent growth in in their production in
the January-May period respectively.

According to the same source Libya, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia
produced 1.36, 7.72 and 1.135 million barrels of oil a day in the
first five months of the year. 1.3, 0.9 and 0.1 percent increase
was observed in the output of the countries respectively, added
the union official.


Police arrest Iraqi who attempted to hijack plane

AMMAN, Jordan (AP) _An Iraqi man
who made a half-hearted attempt to hijack a Jordanian plane has
been arrested, Jordanian civil aviation said Thursday.

The Royal Jordanian flight carrying 119 people from San'a, Yemen,
landed safely at Amman airport early Thursday, the director general
of Jordan's Civil Aviation Authority, Capt. Jihad Irhseid, said.
Irhseid told The Associated Press the Iraqi had surrendered
to aircraft security without any violence.

Shortly after the plane took off from Sanaa, ``he sent a letter
to the captain through an attendant saying that he was assigned
to hijack the plane and to kill the pilot, but that he doesn't want
to do so and wants to surrender,'' Irsheid said.

He said the hijacker claimed to have hand grenades, but
``investigations afterward proved they were fake.'' Security
officials said the Iraqi was being interrogated to determine his
motive and who was behind the attempt. The officials insisted on
anonymity.

No other details were immediately available.

It was the third hijack attempt involving Jordan in three months.
On July 5, security guards shot and killed a Syrian man who tossed
a grenade in Royal Jordanian plane flying to Syria, wounding several
people as he attempted to divert the plane to Germany.
On Sept. 14, an Iraqi armed with a knife forced a Qatar Airways
plane bound for Amman to land in Saudi Arabia. He surrendered to
Saudi police, saying he was afraid Jordan would hand him over to
Iraq.


Iraqi dinar soars following government's decision to drop use of
dollar

BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) _ T
The Iraqi dinar rose significantly against the dollar Thursday after
a government order demanding both private and state banks
to gradually drop the use of the dollar in favor of other hard currencies.
In early trading Thursday, the dinar surged to 1,600 against the
dollar from 1,990 the previous day. Money changers in Baghdad said
Iraqis were in a rush to get rid of the greenback fearing
the government may even ban its circulation.

Deputy Prime Minister Hikmat Mizban Ibrahim, also head of
the influential government-run Economic Affairs Committee, issued
instructions Tuesday requesting Iraqi ministries to stop use of
the dollar in foreign business transactions because ``it belongs
to an enemy state.'' Trade Ministry officials who handle Iraq's
multibillion external trade under the U.N.-approved oil deal said
they have notified Iraq's trading partners to quote their prices
in hard currencies other than the dollar. Iraq trades with about
50 countries, with major partners including France, Russia, China,
Jordan, Egypt and Vietnam.

Speaking on customary condition of anonymity, the officials said
Iraqi banks have also been instructed to draw up plans to dispose
of their dollar stashes. As part of a government economic
liberalization program started in 1995, Iraqis were up to
now allowed to open dollar accounts in local banks.
It is not clear whether Iraq's State Organization for the Marketing
of Oil, Iraq's oil marketing arm, has made similar requests
to governments and companies buying Iraqi crude. Iraq exports an
average of 2.4 million barrels a day under the U.N-controlled oil
deal which allows it unlimited exports on condition the proceeds
are used for the purchase of food, medicine and other essential
needs.

Officials say the surge in the dinar's value was also partly spurred
by a feeling of optimism in Baghdad that the removal of U.N.
sanctions, imposed for Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait, is just round
the corner.

Latest challenges to the sanctions have come France and Russia,
Iraq's main backers at the U.N. Security Council, who sent planes
to Baghdad recently without proper authorization from the U.N.
sanctions committee which vets Iraqi exports and imports under the
oil deal.

On Thursday, the United States and Britain, Iraq's main opponents
at the council, had to accept a compromise deal reducing
to 25 percent from 30 percent the amount Iraq is obliged to earmark
for a Gulf War reparations fund from its oil revenues. The excess
money would amount to about dlrs 1 billion over a year under current
oil prices.

Last time the dinar rose significantly was in 1995, when its value
surged to 500 to the dollar from 3,000 following Iraq's acceptance
to U.N. terms to sell oil.


Iraq faces Pounds 11bn war bill
>From THE TIMES, September 28th, 2000
James Bone
THE big powers at the United Nations struck a deal yesterday to
force Iraq to pay Pounds 11billion in compensation to the Kuwaiti
Petroleum Company for the oil-well fires started by retreating Iraqi
troops in the Gulf War (James Bone writes). The 15-nation
UN compensation commission is due to approve the record award at
the end of its three-day meeting in Geneva today, despite complaints
by Russia and France that the damages could provoke an Iraqi backlash.


Syria says Turkish water cuts will harm population, agriculture

DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) _ A Syrian official said Thursday that further
cuts in the water flow from Turkey would have a severe impact on
almost half of the Syrian population, who are already suffering
from the effects of a regional drought.

``Turkey has started reducing the flow of water to Syria without
prior notice to Syrian authorities,'' a senior official at
the Ministry of Irrigation said on condition of anonymity.
Turkish officials said Tuesday that the drought has forced them
to cut the water flow to Syria by two-thirds.

The Syrian official said the water cut would have a severe impact
on almost half of the Syrian population, who depend on the Euphrates
for drinking water, and on the agricultural and electrical sectors.
A 1987 agreement requires Turkey to provide Syria with 500 cubic
meters (17,500 cubic feet) a second of Euphrates water. Syria says
the amount has continually decreased in recent years, getting as
low as 75 cubic meters (2,625 cubic feet) one day this month, but
Turkey claims it has been sending much more than the agreement calls
for.

A Syrian water expert with the ministry, Majed Daoud, said the flow
from Turkey varied daily, but was averaging about 200 cubic meters
(7,000 cubic feet) a second. On Tuesday, Dogan Altinbilek, chief of Turkey's
State Water Works Institute, said Turkey is currently releasing an average
of 160cubic meters (5,600 cubic feet) of water per second from
the Euphrates River.

The difference in numbers could not be explained.
So far this year, Syria has reached only 40 percent of the annual
rainfall average, estimated at 45 billion cubic meters.
Sixty percent of Syrian farms depend on rain for irrigation.
According to a report released Wednesday by the official al-Baath
newspaper, the capital Damascus is suffering a water shortage of
about 260,000 cubic meters (9.1 million cubic feet) daily.
Water is being rationed in Damascus and garden watering and washing
the exterior of buildings is prohibited in all Syrian cities. Some
remote towns occasionally run dry for a day.
TV and radio have launched a wide-scale campaign urging Syrians
to be careful while using water and many punitive measures,
including jail sentences and fines, were also introduced this year
for wasting water.

Daoud said the Ataturk Dam in southeastern Turkey is full and that
there is no legal justification to prevent a fair share of
the Euphrates River according to the 1987 agreement.
Altinbilek warned the Foreign Ministry to update the 1987 agreement
with Syria to add a drought clause. He said that in case of drought,
Syria should reduce the flow of the Euphrates water to Iraq rather
than demand more water from Turkey.

Turkey and Syria have long been at loggerheads over sharing the
waters of the Euphrates River. Turkey is building dams along the
river, which Syria claims could sharply reduce the flow of water
into northern Syria.


Kuwaiti War Claim Approved
>From WASHINGTON POST, September 28th, 2000

The U.N. Security Council agreed today to approve a $15.9 billion
compensation claim against Iraq by the Kuwaiti Petroleum Corp. for
the destruction of its oil fields during the final days of
the Persian Gulf War.

The settlement, which is likely to take well over a decade to pay,
is the largest award for war reparations ever granted against Iraq.
It also sets the stage for a U.N. compensation commission in Geneva
to begin considering more than two dozen other billion-dollar-plus
claims by governments and corporations for financial losses as a
result of Iraq's 1990 invasion of Kuwait.

Under the terms of a U.N.-brokered "oil-for-food" deal, Iraq has
been obliged to set aside 30 percent of its oil revenue for
reparations. Over the past nine years, the commission has awarded
more than $15 billion to nearly 2.6 million claimants -- mostly
individuals with small claims -- with virtually no opposition.
But as the commission turned its attention to big-ticket claims
by governments and corporations earlier this year, Iraq, Russia
and France protested, arguing that too much money was going
to wealthy Persian Gulf sheiks and too little to ordinary Iraqis
who have endured a decade of economic sanctions.

Russia and France have held up the Kuwait Petroleum Corp. award
since June in an effort to win the Security Council's assent to
reduce the portion of Iraqi oil proceeds set aside for reparations
from 30 percent to 20 percent, with the balance to go to the U.N.
humanitarian program in Iraq.

However, Russian and French diplomats endorsed the Kuwaiti claim
after the United States agreed this morning to compromise on a 5
percentage point reduction, valued at about $1 billion. The change
will go into effect on Dec.10.

James Cunningham, deputy U.S. ambassador to the United Nations,
said Washington will work hard to ensure that the money is targeted
to improve the lives of ordinary Iraqis and not to enrich the Iraqi
leadership.

Since 1991, the compensation commission has received 2.6 million
claims worth more than $300 billion. U.N. officials say about $245
billion in claims remain unresolved, including 26 valued at more
than $1 billion apiece and 6,500 worth less than $1 million each.
With about $400 million going into the fund each month, it could
take decades to settle all the claims.

The deal provided fresh evidence that American efforts to maintain
tight economic sanctions on Iraq are weakening. Jordan today became
the first Arab nation to authorize a passenger flight to Baghdad
since Iraq reopened its international airport for business last
month.


Jordan: Prime minister expected to visit Baghdad in October

Excerpts from report by Jordanian TV on 28th September
A Jordanian plane arrived in Iraq with a high-level delegation
on board, including ministers, members of parliament and
journalists. The Royal Jordanian airbus, the first Arab flight
into Iraq in 10 years received a warm welcome by Iraqi officials
at the airport...

Prime Minister Ali Abu-al-Raghib is expected to visit Baghdad
next month. He will be the first Arab premier to visit Iraq in
10 years.
Source: Jordanian TV, Amman, in English 1900 gmt 27 Sep 00


Turkey welcomes embargo-defying flights to sanctioned Iraq

ANKARA, Sept 28 (AFP) - Turkey welcomed Thursday the organization
of humanitarian flights to its southeastern neighbour Iraq
in defiance of the decade-old UN embargo against Baghdad.

"We see the civil flights to Iraq primarily as an effort to meet
the humanitarian needs of the Iraqi people. We attach great importance
to this issue and view it positively," foreign ministry spokesman Huseyin
Dirioz said in a written statement.

Five planes, three Russian, one French and one Jordanian, have
landed in Baghdad since mid-August despite strong criticism from the United
States.

A second French plane is planned to come to Baghdad from Paris
on Friday, while Iceland, India, Syria and Yemen have all voiced intentions
to send planes to Iraq.

Dirioz also recalled that Turkey had given permission to
the French and Russian planes, which landed in Baghdad last week, to use its
airspace without seeking approval from the UN sanctions committee.

"Our decision is based on the related resolution of the
UN Security Council, " the spokesman added.

Turkey's standpoint differed from that of its key ally the United
States, which has expressed displeasure over the growing number
of countries challenging the UN embargo.

Iraq has been under international sanctions since it invaded
Kuwait in August 1990, including an air embargo which is at the heart of
the controversy. 

The US and Britain say that UN authorisation is needed to fly
to Baghdad, while France, like China and Russia, maintains that the
UN resolutions do not cover an air embargo and therefore a simple
notification of flight plans suffices.



Jordanian aircraft leaves Iraq

The Jordanian aircraft which brought a government delegation to
Iraq on Wednesday departed on Thursday, Iraqi radio reported.
The delegation held talks with a number of Iraqi officials on
how to bolster ties to the benefit of the "two sisterly
countries", the radio said.
"They emphasized Jordan's position, which supports Iraq's
legitimate cause that calls for the condemnation of blatant
US-British aggression and lifting the unjust siege that has been
imposed for more than a decade," the radio said.
Source: Republic of Iraq Radio, Baghdad, in Arabic 28 Sep


Experts declare sanctions on Iraq a failure
>From UPI SPOTLIGHT, September 28th, 2000

WASHINGTON, Sept. 28 (UPI) -- U.S. sanctions and policies toward
Iraq have failed, a former four-star general, a U.N. arms inspection chief
and a Reagan-era Pentagon official told the Senate Armed Services
Committee Thursday. But they see contrary ways ahead -- staying the 
course, tightening sanctions, or an armed overthrow of Saddam Hussein.


New flights pierce Iraq sanctions 
>From THE GUARDIAN, September 28th, 2000 
 By BRIAN WHITAKER MIDDLE EAST EDITOR
Jordan yesterday became the third country within a week to send a plane to
Baghdad, as Saddam Hussein intensified his campaign to force an end to
economic sanctions as the west is heavily dependent on Iraqi oil.
 Russia, Iceland and Jordan have all notified the UN sanctions committee of
plans for further flights within the next two days, and flights from Syria
and India are also planned. Flights from Russia and France have taken place
in recent days.

Organisers cite humanitarian assistance as the basis of past and impending
flights, saying that sanctions do not apply to relief planes. Iraq,
meanwhile, is preparing a new challenge to British and
American resolve over the no-fly zones in the north and south of the
country, set up to protect the Kurdish and Shi'a communities from
repression by the Baghdad regime. It has completed repairs to Mosul airport
in the northern no-fly zone, and is expected to start internal flights from
there to Baghdad soon, the first for more than 10 years.

Iraq will argue that civilian aircraft are outside the UN's no-fly rules.
Last night, however, western diplomatic sources said they believed such
flights would be an infringement of the zones. The French, Russian and
Jordanian flights have respected the zones.

In London, a Foreign Office spokesman said Britain's policy is to 'encourage
organisations to provide additional assistance to the Iraqi people' but that
all flights had to be approved by the
sanctions committee, which must decide whether they contain a strong
humanitarian element. The committee's interpretation of 'humanitarian' will
be tested tomorrow afternoon when a second flight leaves France, this one
carrying politicians, doctors and artists from European countries.

Sabah al-Mukhtar of the Mariam Appeal, one of the groups involved in the
flight, said 'humanitarian' should not mean only food and drugs: 'When you
express solidarity with an oppressed people, that is also
a humanitarian gesture.' Another organiser said the flight was also a
political statement:'to show no one needs UN permission to fly to Iraq'.

The organisers have not sought approval from the UN sanctions committee,
though the flight has been approved by the French
government. Whether it intended to notify the committee was unclear. Britons
due to join the flight include Labour MP George Galloway, Labour peers Lord
Nazir and Lord Rea, BBC disc jockey Andy Kershaw and singer-songwriter
Kirsty MacColl.'Once we have regular civilian flights from Moscow, Amman and
Paris', an Iraqi official recently told the Guardian 'sanctions will
be at an end'.

But a Foreign Office spokesman said: 'The Iraqis think that the more flights
there are, the greater the pressure is going to be for commercial flights to
be allowed. That does not necessarily follow.' Unlike humanitarian flights,
commercial flights are forbidden by sanctions, he said. 

In a further move to weaken support for sanctions, Iraq last week offered to
buy 20 new airliners from the European consortium, Airbus Industrie.
  


Military spokesman reports US-British air raids on 28th September 
>From BBC MONITORING INTERNATIONAL REPORTS, September 28th, 2000 
Once again, the US and British ravens of evil have violated our airspace
coming from Saudi and Kuwaiti territories. The Saudi and Kuwaiti regimes are
directly supporting these foreign infidels to desecrate our holy lands by
allowing these rancorous ravens to cruise Saudi and Kuwaiti territorial
waters and take off from their territory. They are paying for the aggression
against Iraq, the country of banners and glories, from the wealth of the
Saudi and Kuwaiti peoples. Today, we ask Saudi and Kuwaiti citizens an
important question. We ask them: Why do the Saudi and Kuwaiti rulers bombard
Iraq?
In a statement to the Iraqi news agency, a spokesman for the Air Defence
Command said that at 1145 [0745 gmt] on 28th September 2000, the US and
British ravens of evil violated the airspace of great Iraq. They carried out
24 combat air sorties backed by an AWACS from Saudi airspace and four
sorties backed by an A2-C from Kuwaiti airspace. They flew over areas in the
governorates of Basra, Al-Muthanna, Dhi Qar, Maysan, `Al-Qadisiyah', Karbala
and Al-Najaf.

MISCELLANY++++++++++++++++++++

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