IRAQ SANCTIONS MONITOR Number 133
Friday October 6, 2000
LATEST++++++++++NEWS++++++++++
US could attack Iraq if nukes return: Cheney
>From AFP ENGLISH, October 6th, 2000
DANVILLE, Kentucky, Oct 5 (AFP) - Republican vice presidential candidate
Dick Cheney said here Thursday that the United States should consider using
military action against Iraq if Baghdad tries to rebuild a nuclear
capability
"If, in fact, Saddam Hussein were taking steps to try to rebuild nuclear
capability or weapons of mass destruction, we'd have to give very serious
consideration to military action to stop that activity," said Cheney during
a televised debate with his Democratic rival, Senator Joe Lieberman.
"I don't think you can afford to have a man like Saddam Hussein with nuclear
weapons in the Middle East," said Cheney, who served as defense secretary
under president George Bush during the Gulf war and is the running mate of
Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush in the November 7 election.
Lieberman, Vice President Gore's running mate in the upcoming White House
race, agreed that "we will not enjoy real stability in the Middle East until
Saddam is gone." "But I must say, I don't think a political campaign is the
occasion to declare exactly what we would do in that case," Lieberman
cautioned.
"I think that's a matter of such critical national security importance that
it ought to be left to those -- the commander in chief, the leaders of the
military, the secretary of state -- to make that kind of decision without
the heat of a political campaign," Lieberman said.
Israel closes off West Bank and Gaza Strip as violence continues
>From AFP ENGLISH, October 6th, 2000
JERUSALEM, Oct 6 (AFP) - Israel closed off the West Bank and Gaza Strip
Friday after more violence in which two Palestinians were shot dead by
Israeli forces, shaking a fragile ceasefire aimed at halting a week of
bloodletting.
"The cordon went into effect at 0200 GMT until the end of the Yom Kippur
festival on Monday evening," a military spokesman announced.
The move came after renewed violence on Thursday as renewed diplomatic
efforts failed to reach an agreement to end the violence.
The measure to seal off the West Bank and Gaza Strip is taken to prevent
terrorist action during the most important Jewish festivals of the year.
As night fell two people had been reported killed, one a Palestinian man
shot in the back by Israeli troops who opened fire on up to 200 Palestinians
hurling stones and Molotov cocktails at an army base guarding the Jewish
settlement at Netzarim.
A second man was killed when he came under fire near Bethlehem in the West
Bank from Israeli forces, who said he was hurling molotov cocktails at
passing
Israel cars.
Another two Palestinians died of wounds inflicted earlier in the week,
bringing the death toll over the past week to 76 in the worst Israeli-
Palestinian violence in four years that has brought efforts to find a
lasting peace to the brink of collapse.
Several dozen people were also injured in clashes in the Gaza Strip and
the
West Bank, but the daily toll of dead and wounded was the lowest since the
start of the clashes which erupted a week ago after right-wing Israeli
politician Ariel Sharon visited a site holy to both Jews and Muslims.
The incidents bore no comparison to those of previous days, when Israeli
troops used missiles and helicopter gunships against Palestinians armed with
stones, Molotov cocktails and in some cases assault rifles.
Israeli and Palestinian security officials agreed early Thursday -- for
the
second time in three days -- to halt the violence despite the failure of
their
leaders to hammer out a comprehensive ceasefire pact at talks in Paris.
The army said it had withdrawn tanks from several flashpoints in the West
Bank, including Ramallah and Nablus.
"There is no doubt that the violence went down and that there was action
by
the Palestinians to reduce the friction," Israeli army central region
commander Yitzhak Eitan said.
But Israel is bracing for a possible fresh outbreak of violent
confrontations Friday, when Palestinian groups are planning a "day of rage."
US President Bill Clinton on Thursday called on Israeli Prime Minister
Ehud
Barak and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat to implement "clear commitments"
to
end bloodshed between Israelis and Palestinians.
Barak said Arafat must choose between a return to peace talks or continued
confrontation with Israel.
"Arafat and the Palestinian Authority must decide whether to return to the
negotiating table to reach peace or whether they are going down the road of
confrontation and violence," Barak told a press conference in Tel Aviv.
"They will have to be ready to assume the consequences of their choice,"
he
added.
Arafat, for his part, insisted on an international committee to
investigate
the wave of violence.
"We insisted in the meetings with Presidents Chirac and Mubarak that it is
important and vital to form an international committee to investigate the
massacres and the aggressions against our people," Arafat said in Gaza City.
He was speaking on his return from the Egyptian resort of Sharm El-Sheikh
where he met US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and Egyptian President
Hosni Mubarak to discuss ways of ending the bloodshed and setting the peace
process back on track.
The meeting followed talks in Paris Wednesday with Albright, Israeli Prime
Minister Ehud Barak and French President Jacques Chirac, which failed to
produce an expected formal ceasefire pact.
Preparations began Thursday for an emergency summit of all Arab heads of
state to be held in Cairo on October 23 and 24, Arab diplomats there told
AFP.
The sources said the summit would include the participation of Iraq, which
was excluded from the last meeting, held in Cairo in 1996, because of its
invasion of Kuwait six years earlier.
During the cordoning-off of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, Palestinians are
not allowed to cross over into Israeli territory. Nor are they allowed to
travel between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
Russia says U.N. oil-for-food program in Iraq not helping ordinary citizens
MOSCOW (AP) _ Russia again criticized the way United Nations sanctions are
enforced against Iraq as damaging to ordinary citizens, on Thursday urging
the U.N. to free scores of aid shipments blocked from arriving in the
country.
An estimated dlrs 2.14 billion worth of goods, mostly communications and
transport equipment, is under holds imposed by the U.N. Sanctions Committee,
which decides what can be purchased by Iraq through the U.N. oil-for-food
program.
The United States has delayed approval for most of those contracts,
concerned that the equipment could have military uses.
Russia's Foreign Ministry criticized the holds, saying the goods allowed
into Iraq ``cannot fully meet the basic needs of the population of that
country,'' a ministry statement said. ``Such a situation cannot be called
satisfactory,'' the statement said.
The U.N. says the embargo against Iraq, imposed after the 1991 Gulf War, can
only be lifted after Iraq proves that it has destroyed all its weapons of
mass destruction and the capability to manufacture them. Baghdad says it has
complied, but refuses to cooperate with U.N. arms inspectors.
Russia has long urged the lifting of the sanctions, but its push has become
stronger in recent weeks as it appears emboldened by growing international
support for ending the measures.
Russia is eager to resume lucrative oil contracts with Baghdad and wants
Iraq to pay back some dlrs 8 billion in Soviet-era debt.
Kuwait withdraws some forces from Iraqi border as immigrants dwindle
KUWAIT (AP) _ The number of people wanting to cross from Iraq to Kuwait
plummeted Thursday, a U.N. official said.
The fall led Kuwait to withdraw some of its special police forces from the
border, said Abdillahi Z. Rijal, a spokesman for the U.N. observer force
that monitors the frontier.
Kuwait had deployed the police Tuesday after finding that some 200 people
were gathered on Iraqi side, hoping to cross. On Wednesday, Kuwait said the
number had jumped to 550.
However, many people left Thursday and by the evening there were about 200,
Rijal said.
``So far we haven't seen anything alarming,'' Rijal said, adding that some
of the would-be immigrants were behaving like day campers.
``People were busy playing volley ball game and singing and dancing.''
Kuwait regards the immigrants as Iraqi security agents dressed in civilian
clothes. It says they have been sleeping in military tents and using
vehicles with Iraqi government registration plates.
Rijal could not confirm the Kuwaiti claims, but said that the group did
include women and children.
The would-be immigrants say they are stateless persons who previously lived
in Kuwait.
The stateless persons, known as ``bidouns'' from the Arabic phrase ``bidoun
jinsiya,'' or without citizenship, have long been a political issue in
Kuwait. Most have been denied work permits and live in poverty.
The government says many stateless persons are illegal immigrants seeking a
better life in the oil-rich emirate. However, in May the parliament passed a
bill enabling some of these people to claim citizenship, but it limited
naturalizations to 2,000 a year.
Several hundred U.N. observers are deployed in a demilitarized zone along
the Iraqi-Kuwaiti border.
Turkey threatens to close military base to US planes
ANKARA, Oct 5 (AFP) - Turkey's parliament said Thursday it might not renew
the mandate of US planes using a Turkish base to enforce a no-fly zone in
northern Iraq if a US Congress resolution recognizing the killings of
Armenians in the Ottoman Empire as genocide were not averted.
"It will be difficult to maintain the current spirit of partnership and
understanding in the cooperation between Turkey and the United States if the
draft bill is adopted," a joint statement by the five political parties in
the
parliament said.
"If the House of Representatives approves the said resolution, the Turkish
parliament will evaluate the extension of the mandate of Operation Northern
Watch (ONW) in the light of changing circumstances," it added.
The government voiced a full-fledged support for the parliament's
declaration after a meeting to evaluate the developments on the bill.
"The cabinet has agreed that the parliament's statement is absolutely
appropriate and gives its full support to it," State Minister Rustu Kazim
Yucelen told reporters.
US and British jets based at Incirlik base in the southern province of
Adana have been enforcing a no-fly zone against Iraqi aircraft north of the
36th parallel since the end of the Gulf War in 1991. The jets regularly bomb
Iraqi anti-aircraft positions that target them.
ONW began on January 1, 1997 and since then the Turkish parliament has
renewed its mandate every six months. It was preceded by Operation Provide
Comfort, which ran from April 1991 to December 1996.
The latest renewal went into force on June 30 and expires at the end of
December.
Turkish Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit also said that the genocide bill
could
affect US use of the Incirlik base.
Asked whether Turkish counter-moves against the bill would include the
closure of the base, Ecevit would only say: "there can be certain
developments
on this issue as well," Anatolia news agency reported.
Turkey, a successor state to the Ottoman Empire, postponed Wednesday a
planned visit to Washington by its army chief and toughened visa regulations
for Armenians in retaliation to the adoption of the controversial resolution
in a key congressional committee on Tuesday.
Ecevit expressed hope that the Clinton administration, which is also
opposed to the bill, would manage to prevent its ultimate approval when it
comes to the agenda of the full House of Representatives.
"Otherwise, Turkish-American relations will unfortunately suffer," he
added.
The parliamentary statement said the Armenian genocide bill constituted a
"distortion of history with pure political motives."
Critics of the resolution accuse its sponsors of seeking to curry favor
among a substantial Armenian immigrant community in California, ahead of
elections in five weeks.
Turkey's moves were the first indications of a plan of counter-measures
which Ankara has threatened to activate against its key ally, the US, and
Armenia if the genocide resolution is not averted.
Armenia maintains that up to 1.3 million of its people were massacred in
1915, while Turkey says the figure was around 300,000.
Turkey categorically rejects claims of genocide and counters that
thousands
of Turks also died in what was internal fighting during the dissolution
years
of the Ottoman Empire.
Turkey does not maintain diplomatic relations with Armenia due to
Yerevan's
international campaign for recognition of its genocide claims and because of
its conflict with Azerbaijan, a close ally of Turkey, over the ethnic
Armenian
enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Preparations underway for Arab summit in Cairo in late October:
CAIRO, Oct 5 (AFP) - Preparations began Thursday for an emergency summit of
all Arab heads of state to be held in Cairo on October 23 and 24, Arab
diplomats here told AFP Thursday.
The sources said the summit would include the participation of Iraq, which
was excluded from the last meeting, held in Cairo in 1996, because of its
invasion of Kuwait six years earlier.
The report came only hours after Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak called
for a summit before the end of this month to discuss "the deteriorating
situation in the Palestinian territories."
MISCELLANY+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Below are selected sanctions-related excerpts from Richard Butler's 28
September 2000 testimony before the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee
<http://www.senate.gov/~armed_services/>. Note that Butler repeatedly
states that sanctions do not work. Additionally, while Butler disagrees
with Scott Ritter's evaluation of the status of Iraq's non-conventional
programs and weapons, Butler proposes a policy solution that seems to be
identical to Scott Ritter, "The Case for Iraq's Qualitative Disarmament,"
Arms Control Today, Vol. 30, No. 5
<http://www.armscontrol.org/ACT/june00/iraqjun.htm>: lift non-military
sanctions in exchange for monitoring. However, despite concluding that
non-military sanctions do not work, Butler seems unwilling to state that the
Security Council ought to unconditionally lift non-military sanctions.
Richard Perle <http://www.aei.org/scholars/perle.htm> and General Anthony
Zinni, Ret., also testified. Senator John Warner
<http://www.senate.gov/~warner/> (Republican-West Virginia, Armed Services
Committee Chairman) and Senator Carl Levin <http://www.senate.gov/~levin/>
(Democrat-Michigan, Armed Services Committee Ranking Democratic Member)
presided. Please E-mail Nathaniel Hurd <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> if you would like
the entire 54 page Federal News Service transcript (either as regular E-mail
text or a Microsoft Word attachment).
Copyright 2000 Federal News Service, Inc.
Federal News Service
September 28, 2000, Thursday
SECTION: CAPITOL HILL HEARING
LENGTH: 24027 words
HEADLINE: HEARING OF THE SENATE ARMED FORCES COMMITTEE
SUBJECT: U.S. POLICY TOWARD IRAQ
CHAIRED BY: SENATOR JOHN WARNER (R-VA)
WITNESSES: GENERAL ANTHONY ZINNI, USMC RET., FORMER CINC, U.S. CENTRAL
COMMAND; RICHARD BUTLER, COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS; RICHARD PERLE,
AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE
LOCATION: 216 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING, WASHINGTON, D.C.
Richard Butler:
"Let there also be no doubt in this room that there is an utterly single and
abiding reason why the good people of Iraq are not enjoying that standard
today, and it is the policies of the head of their government, the dictator
of Iraq. Specifically, to come to weapons, the legal and political system
established at the end of the Gulf War by the Security Council was
deliciously simple. It was this: "You will suffer sanctions until you give
us your weapons." He, therefore, has always had in his hands the key to the
release of the Iraqi people from sanctions from day one, and it was to put
on the table his weapons of mass destruction. Senator, he has resolutely
refused to pick up that key and turn it, and the first victims of that are
the people he purports to serve."
"But one point I would want to make before perhaps leaving the sanctions
subject, but I'll come back to the sanctions subject and its relations to
us, is this: again I say to the good people who have just had to leave this
chamber, that make no mistake about it, Iraq is awash with money. The
consequences of the flourishing black market are simply enormous. The regime
is in great shape. There is no shortage of a capacity to provide what the
people need, were there the will to do just that, leave aside the
oil-for-food arrangement. But instead of doing that, what we now see
revealed, and perhaps the unkindest cut of all, is evidence that some of the
U.N.-provided food and medicines is actually being seized by the regime and
exported for sale outside Iraq.
So my word on what we've just heard in this chamber, Mr. Chairman, is I
agree, I agree that the ordinary people of Iraq are suffering greatly. I do
not agree that it is the direct consequence of sanctions. I think the
responsibility for that suffering lies with the leader of the government of
Iraq."
"The chemical warfare agent manufacturing facilities have been rebuilt. The
same is true of their biological capacity. And I've seen evidence that I
accept that he has recalled their nuclear weapons design team. So, in
summary, Mr. Chairman, they're back in business, which is precisely what was
not to happen. Remember, my leitmotif here is that essentially we're talking
about weapons of mass destruction.
Now one of the main instruments that was to put -- that was to be employed
by the international community to prevent this development was actually
sanctions, sanctions tied to adequate disarmament and arms control
performance. And I'm sure, when we enter into discussion, we'll come back to
this.
All I want to say about sanctions at this juncture is -- and I want to say
this very, very carefully -- if their fundamental purpose -- after their
initial purpose, which was to encourage him to get out of Kuwait, which
didn't work, and so we had to send in a coalition of force -- but if their
purpose thereafter was to oblige his conformity with the requirements of
arms control, of disarmament and arms control monitoring -- I want to say
this very carefully -- the only sensible conclusion to come to today is that
they are not working.
They may have worked for a period of time. They may have helped bring about
some of what we achieved. It's a bit hard to dissect that with great
accuracy, but let's assume they did.
But I want to say now is, given the last 22 months, given today's
circumstances of crumbling sanctions, given the fact that he's back in the
arms business, Mr. Chairman, it follows as the night follows the day for me
to say what I'm saying. These sanctions are not working."
"And fundamentally, Mr. Chairman -- and this is my fourth red line -- that
means a major effort by the United States government, whether it's this
administration or the next, to make clear to the fellow permanent member
that is most chiefly responsible for Saddam's break- out -- and I'm talking
of Russia -- to make clear to Russia that its behavior in the patronization
of the dictator of Baghdad, a man declared by international observers to
have the worst human rights record since Adolf Hitler, to make clear to
Russia that it is not acceptable for it to patronize such a person, to make
clear that we have a common interest in the security of the nonproliferation
regimes on weapons of mass destruction, and that when Security Council
consensus on such issues disappears, the only beneficiary is the rogue, and
that behavior of patronage of such a rogue is unworthy and unacceptable from
a permanent member of the Security Council.
This is a tough ask. But Mr. Chairman, I believe it is essential if there is
to be a chance of Saddam being brought back into the required arms control
regime.
Now, one of the ways in which such restoration of consensus may be able to
be achieved is if this failing sanctions regime is modified. And the inner
logic of that, it seems to me, is crystal clear. What is it about? It's
about weapons of mass destruction. It's not about harming Iraqi babies. And
so it seems to me that within such a new consensus consideration should be
given to refocusing the sanctions to make sure that they are targeted
against any militarily-related goods and against the financial welfare of
the leadership of the government of Iraq. Targeted sanctions could be a part
of such a new approach.
And it must be fundamental to such a deal that monitoring be restored if
Iraq were to be given a revised sanctions arrangement targeted on weapons
and the finances of the leadership. But by definition, liberating some other
parts of the regime, it could only be on the clear understanding that
full-scale monitoring is returned to Iraq so that we can see what they're
doing in their missile, nuclear, chemical and biological activities."
Butler's Policy Proposal:
MR. BUTLER: -- look, the gut point would be, in exchange for getting
monitoring back into Iraq, that sanctions would be different from what they
are now -- they've almost gone now -- but that there would be clear
sanctions on military goods.
Would Iraq accept that deal? I don't know, but I --
SEN. LEVIN: And their own leadership -- not just on the military goods; it's
also on their own leadership --
MR. BUTLER: Yeah. Well --
SEN. LEVIN: -- business transactions -- you'd use those.
MR. BUTLER: Yes, that's right.
------_______________________________________________________
Stratfor is a US "business intelligence" company. They provide a free
daily "global intelligence update" by e-mail. The following is that for 3
October. I am adding this forward as they are incorrect when they claim,
at the end, that
Iraq's democratic opposition has not seen one dollar of the scant
$97 million earmarked for the opposition by the 1998 Iraq
Liberation Act.
Some of this money has been disbursed to a number of opposition groups. It
has been used, however, for "non-lethal" activities (e.g. training in office
management). Some Iraqi opposition groups, most notably the SCIRI (Supreme
Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq), have refused to accept US
money, fearing that it would fatally damage their credibility.
A reference for the above would be the BBC's 28 June 2000 story, "Gore:
Saddam must go", available at:
http://news6.thdo.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid%5F809000/809168
.stm
Best,
Colin Rowat
It is worth noting Khidir Hamza's policy proposal: "lift all sanctions from
Iraq-provided Baghdad permits its senior nuclear scientists and their
families to immigrate to the West." (Jonathan Broder, "Saddam's Bomb," The
New York Times Magazine, 1 October 2000, pg. 43
http://www.nytimes.com/magazine/20001001mag-saddam.html)
If Hamza was in fact the director-general of Iraq's nuclear weapons program
(and was able to give accurate "detailed briefings" to the CIA, Broder, pg.
43), then he knew the nuclear program's details and perhaps also those of
the chemical, biological, and ballistic missile programs. Program knowledge
would have most likely meant know from whom Iraq acquired non-conventional
weapons-directed materials and technology, how that acquisition occurred,
and what Iraq did to hide what it did not want known (both before and during
UNSCOM's inspections).
Assume that Hamza probably knew about Iraq's acquisition and concealment.
Hamza still advocates lifting "all sanctions" [quotes for Broder's words] in
conjunction with expert immigration. Hamza seems to suggest that current
sanctions in and of themselves do not, as the U.S. and UK governments claim,
"contain" or impact the Iraqi Government's ability to significantly
re-constitute non-conventional programs and weapons.
_________________________________________________
Dear Friends of Iraq,
Mariam Hamza has been in the US since August 14 and will be here, with her
grandmother, for several weeks still. She will be undergoing more tests soon
to determine the status of her leukemia.
Both Mariam and her grandmother love phone calls. So if you speak Arabic and
would like to talk with Mariam and her grandmother just let me know and I
will set up a time for you to call them.
Best wishes,
Mark Clement
www.mariamappeal.com
________________________________________
Long Live Palestine - http://listen.to/Long_Live_Palestine
"Some call them radicals. Others call them the Opposition. President Clinton
referred to them on various occasions as the "enemies of peace". Yet, for
many Palestinians, they represent the non-compromising segment of the living
conscience of Palestine. So before we rush to judge and to condemn, before
we describe them as radicals and enemies of peace, we must listen to their
story. The story of suffering through Black September, South Lebanon and the
Intifadah. Once we listen, I believe, all that we can do is to stand for
them and salute, salute them for a heavy price they have paid, rather than
those who took the easy way out." - Ramzy Baroud
tel: +44 (0)20 7403 5200
fax: +44 (0)20 7403 3823
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
web: www.mariamappeal.com
