> Published Sunday, October 29, 2000, in the Miami Herald > > IS CHAVEZ PICKING A FIGHT? > by Andres Oppenheimer > > Is President Hugo Ch�vez of Venezuela trying to provoke a > confrontation with the United States? Are his overtures to > President Fidel Castro of Cuba and President Saddam Hussein of > Iraq deliberate moves to create a showdown? > > Consider the latest actions by Ch�vez, the populist former army > officer who staged a failed coup attempt in 1992 and won > Venezuela's elections six years later: > > > On Oct. 26, clad in military fatigues, Ch�vez gave a hero's > welcome to Castro. During Castro's five-day official visit, > Ch�vez is to sign an accord that will give oil-starved Cuba more > than 100,000 barrels of oil a day at heavily discounted prices. > > On Oct. 25, a day before Castro's arrival, Ch�vez said Venezuela > is seeking to create ``a new center of political power'' to > counterbalance U.S. influence in the region, and that ``deepening > of our relations with Cuba is part of that policy.'' > > Also on Oct. 25, Venezuela issued a diplomatic protest to the > United States for the alleged foray into Venezuelan waters of the > U.S. Coast Guard ship Reliance. U.S. officials say the ship was > in an anti-drug patrolling mission allowed under a 1991 bilateral > treaty. > > On Sept. 5, Ch�vez criticized the U.S. anti-drug aid to Colombia, > saying, ``That's the way Vietnam started.'' U.S. and Colombian > officials had gone out of their way to convince the world that > there will be no deployment of U.S. combat troops in Colombia. > > On Aug. 10, Ch�vez met with Iraqi strongman Hussein, defying the > United States and its NATO allies by becoming the first head of > state to go to Iraq since the 1991 Gulf War. > > Until now, the Clinton administration's line on Ch�vez has been > ``Watch what he does, not what he says.'' The underlying message > was that Ch�vez was a flamboyant populist who liked to play macho > with his home audience, but that he hadn't done anything harmful > to U.S. interests. > > But some are beginning to wonder whether that's still the case. > > ``He is crossing the line,'' a former senior U.S. State > Department official told me this week. ``He is coming very close > to directly challenging U.S. political and economic interests in > the region.'' > > Ch�vez, whose country is one of the two largest oil suppliers to > the United States, may be acting out of oil bonanza-driven > cockiness -- some call it the ``Khadafi syndrome'' -- or may be > just following his 1960's-styled Third World nationalist credo, > which some Latin Americans jokingly define as > ``Machism-Leninism.'' > > But there is another, more troubling theory: Ch�vez might be > seeking a showdown with the United States, because -- despite > record high oil prices that have boosted Venezuela's foreign > reserves -- the country's economy shrunk by nearly 8 percent last > year, and is not expected to grow much this year. > > ``He needs animosity with the United States, because sooner or > later he will not be able to deliver on his populist promises,'' > said Roger Noriega, a senior foreign policy staffer with the U.S. > Senate Foreign Relations Committee. ``He is banking on a > nationalist showdown with the United States to maintain his hold > on power.'' > > Indeed, Venezuelans are getting impatient. The poor are as poor > as before, tensions are rising, and capital flight from the rich > soared to $4.6 billion last year. > > The prevailing view among U.S. foreign policy players that the > worst thing the United States can do is pick a public fight with > Ch�vez, or try to undermine his government. It would give Ch�vez > an excuse to turn his government into a full-fledged > anti-American military dictatorship. > > Not surprisingly, the U.S. State Department refused to lash out > against Castro's visit to Venezuela last week. ``We don't comment > on every visit that foreign leaders make to various countries,'' > a U.S. State Department spokesman said Friday. > > But don't be surprised if the next U.S. president begins to take > some defensive measures, such as making plans to buy more oil > from Mexico, or other friendly countries, in case Venezuela > becomes an unreliable supplier. > > The Clinton administration's early expectations that Ch�vez would > sooner or later become a pragmatist are not crystallizing. On the > contrary, it seems that the more Ch�vez consolidates his power, > the more ready he is to sacrifice his people's well-being to his > messianic dreams. > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------_-> > > Post comments to: > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > Send an email to subscribe: > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > To unsubscribe from this CubaNews group, send an email to: > > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > >
