>From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >U.S. Now a 'Threat' in China's Eyes >By John Pomfret >Washington Post Foreign Service > >Wednesday, November 15, 2000; Page A01 > >BEIJING �� In 1998, when China issued its second white paper on >national defense, representing the consensus view of the government, the >document mentioned the United States 10 times, each time positively. >Last month, China's third white paper mentioned the United States 13 >times. All but two of the references were negative. > >The numbers underscore an important shift that will likely vex the next >U.S. administration. Faced with what it feels is a shaky security >environment and a strong and sometimes arrogant America, Beijing has >increasingly viewed the United States as an obstacle to its rise as an >Asian power. > >In government pronouncements, stories in the state-run press, books and >interviews, the United States is now routinely portrayed as Enemy No. 1. >Strategists writing in the pages of China Military Science, the >military's preeminent open-source publication, are grappling publicly >with the possibility that the United States and China could go to war, >specifically over Taiwan. > >"A new arms race has started to develop," wrote Liu Jiangjia, an officer >in the People's Liberation Army, in a piece in the magazine. "War is not >far from us now." > >The new calculus is rooted in a belief that the United States does not >want to see China strong and powerful--a belief that has united >officials of many political persuasions. Even moderate academics express >the fear that the two countries, despite $95 billion in trade last year, >are somehow headed for a showdown in Asia in the next 10 years. > >"China's public view of the United States has changed quite seriously >since 1998," said Shen Dingli, a prominent arms control expert at Fudan >University in Shanghai. "The U.S. has been painted as a threat to >Asian-Pacific security. We've never said it so bluntly before. . . . I >think China is more clearly preparing for a major clash with the United >States." > >While few in China, except for some strategists in the army, seem to >think war is inevitable, the fact that conflict with the United States >is openly discussed is a significant development in China's security >thinking and in its relations with the United States. > >The United States is now perceived as opposing Beijing's two premier >goals in the region: unification with Taiwan, thereby ending what the >Communist Party has called 150 years of humiliation at the hands of >foreigners; and gaining control over the strategic shipping lanes in the >South China Sea, through which the bulk of Asia's oil passes. > >But while China is increasingly united in its view of the United States >as a possible adversary, the leadership does not appear united on how to >deal with the challenge. Beijing's current policy is a modification of >the policy pursued by dictator Mao Zedong in the 1950s. The country >supports many policies that the United States opposes--regarding Iraq, >Iran and former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic--and questions >some key policies that the United States supports--such as humanitarian >intervention in other countries and nonproliferation of missiles. > >In some ways the tussles over how to handle Washington mirror those in >the United States regarding China. Americans argue about engaging or >containing Beijing; Chinese argue about engaging or confronting the >United States. The United States has its "Blue Team," a group of >politicians, academics and political aides who are concerned with the >China threat. > >"And we have our 'Red Team,' " said Li Dongsi, a political scientist at >People's University, referring to a vocal group of anti-American >nationalists in research organizations, the military and security >services. > >"There is no clear sense of direction," said Shi Yinhong, an >international relations specialist. "Positing the U.S. as a threat is >too simple. It gives us no answers on how we are going to deal with >continued U.S. dominance, how we are to deal with the worldwide trend in >democratization, how we are to deal with globalization and with the loss >of sovereignty implied by our accession into the WTO," the World Trade >Organization. > >China's views on the United States have always been contradictory; one >term for the United States translates as "beautiful imperialist." But in >the last two years, a cascade of bad news has increased China's >misgivings about Washington. > >Beijing's view of America has been soured by a combination of events: >NATO's expansion; the strengthening of U.S.-Japan defense guidelines >regarding joint action in the areas surrounding Japan; a congressional >report alleging two decades of Chinese espionage in the United States; >Premier Zhu Rongji's tough visit to the United States in April 1999 when >he failed to secure an agreement on Chinese membership in the WTO. > >In addition, China has been disturbed by talk in Washington of a >national missile defense system and talk that such a system might be >sold to Taiwan. The May 1999 allied bombing of China's embassy in >Belgrade during NATO's air war against Yugoslavia, which killed three >Chinese journalists, outraged China, which declined to accept >Washington's explanation that it was an accident. > >"No fundamental change has been made in the old, unfair and irrational >international political and economic order," last month's defense white >paper said. "Certain big powers [the United States] are pursuing >'neo-interventionism,' 'neo-gunboat policy' and neo-economic >colonialism, which are seriously damaging the sovereignty, independence, >and development interests of many countries, and threatening world peace >and security." > >Central to this premise is Washington's relationship with Taiwan, an >island of 23 million people that China generally views as a renegade >province. The white paper said Washington's continued arms sales to >Taiwan were stymieing its attempts to unite with the island. In >September, the Pentagon approved the sale of $1.3 billion in arms, >including $150 million worth of the AIM-120C Advanced Medium Range >Air-to-Air Missile, or AMRAAM. > >These events prompted a profound debate over the past year in China >about whether "peace and development are the dominant trend of the >times." That formulation, by the late leader Deng Xiaoping, is the >fundamental underpinning of China's economic reform program, which >placed economic development on the top of its four modernizations and >national defense on the bottom. > >While "peace and development" won out in the end, Chinese and American >analysts, such as Evan Medeiros at the Monterey Institute of >International Studies, believe that China's leadership is now paying >more attention to military modernization--mainly as a result of troubled >ties with the United States and problems with Taiwan. > >Domestic political currents have also played a role. Beijing's political >masters are replacing communism with nationalism as a new state >ideology, creating an atmosphere that is not conducive to close ties >with Washington. > >Indeed, Chinese officials say that these days China's version of >political correctness demands a tough stance against the United States. > >"We have a saying," said Yuan Ming, a professor of international >relations at Beijing University: "It's better to be 'left' than 'right.' >" > >One official who appears to have learned this lesson is the president, >Jiang Zemin. >"Jiang staked a lot of his credibility on improving ties with the U.S., >but after the summit [with President Clinton] in 1998 he had no >successes, so he was weakened," said Shen of Fudan University. "The >leadership tried their best and their face was slapped by America. They >must listen to the military now." > >The modernization program pursued by the Chinese military is >concentrating on missiles, warhead delivery systems and their accuracy, >Western military experts say. China is also upgrading and expanding its >nuclear forces; it possesses several dozen delivery systems, compared >with thousands in the United States. > >On Oct. 31, China launched its first homemade navigation positioning >satellite, which could improve the accuracy of its missiles. That >project, according to one Chinese arms control expert, has been a key >task of the army's general staff department for 10 years. >China's air force and navy are also being upgraded. China has purchased >Su-27 and Su-30 fighter jets from Russia and is starting to produce the >Su-27. It has taken delivery of one Russian Sovremenny-class destroyer >equipped with supersonic anti-ship missiles; it will receive another one >shortly and, according to a Western military attache in Beijing, is >prepared to buy two more. >It has purchased two Russian-made Kilo-class submarines and is believed >to be buying one more. > >Still, China's resources remain limited and military training is >relatively primitive. China's defense spending is a fraction of >America's and the secondary tasks the army is responsible for, such as >combating floods and separatist movements in Tibet and the region of >Xinjiang, can only hinder its modernization drive. > >A Chinese research institute run by the Ministry of State Security >forecast last year that the gap between China and the United States in >key indicators of comprehensive national power would continue to widen >for the next 35 years, according to a Western security expert familiar >with the report. > >China's leaders, in addition, have cautioned the military in recent >weeks not to stray from the party line that economic development is >still the country's top priority. Jiang criticized the military in a >semi-public forum recently for increasing China's sense of crisis in >order to justify bigger defense expenditures, a source close to the >military said. Premier Zhu announced last month that China would do all >in its power to settle the Taiwan issue peacefully. > >Shi, the international affairs expert, said he believes that the next >U.S. administration's dealings with China will have a great effect on >China's behavior. >"The U.S. must neither be too fearful nor too nervous," he said. "In the >end, the United States has a much bigger influence on China than China >on the United States." > >� 2000 The Washington Post Company > > >______________________________________________________________________ >To unsubscribe, write to [EMAIL PROTECTED] > >Start Your Own FREE Email List at http://www.listbot.com/links/joinlb _______________________________________________________ KOMINFORM P.O. Box 66 00841 Helsinki - Finland +358-40-7177941, fax +358-9-7591081 e-mail [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.kominf.pp.fi _______________________________________________________ Kominform list for general information. 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