> >From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >Subject: stratfor: IRAQ - SANCTIONS [STOPNATO.ORG.UK] >STOP NATO: �NO PASARAN! - HTTP://WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK > >Meanwhile, Back in Iraq >By George Friedman > >Buried deep in the American subconscious lurks the specter of a 10- >year old war. American aircraft still fly daily combat air patrols >and conduct air strikes. U.S. Navy ships still ply the water and >nearby, ground forces remain at the ready. > >The ongoing U.S. and British action against Iraq remains the >ultimate in low intensity conflict. It is not so much a forgotten >war as one whose goal is unattainable. Neither the destruction of >Saddam Hussein nor the restoration of an arms inspection regime is >now possible. > >Last week, the Russians helped make these military operations >meaningless. In a new drive, the Putin government is signaling that >it will help the Iraqi government put a formal end to a decade of >UN economic sanctions. By doing so, the Russians aim to halt the >U.S. and British patrols and gain for themselves billions of >dollars by developing Iraq's western oil fields. > >Ten years after the defeat of Iraq in the Gulf War, the United >States continues to conduct a Persian Gulf policy on autopilot, >despite the fact that the policy is programmed to go nowhere. A >decade ago, the United Nations imposed an embargo on Iraq. The >British and Americans imposed no-fly zones in the north and south >of the country, flying nearly constant air operations. Saddam did >not fall. > >So the goal shifted to preventing him from developing weapons of >mass destruction. The United Nations sent inspection teams to Iraq >to look for facilities suspected of making biological and chemical >weapons, as well as long-range missiles. Saddam systematically >thwarted the effort. And the inspection regime failed. > >As a result, the sanctions against Iraq have not only failed they >have been repeatedly and deliberately violated for months but their >last vestige of believability has been shattered. > >Everyone from the French to the Syrians has quite publicly violated >the sanctions in some way. The United States has responded by >pretending that the violations weren't violations. > >But the American strategy of pretending just became much more >difficult. Last Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov >visited Baghdad. He carried with him a letter from Russian >President Vladimir Putin. The letter called for an end to U.S. and >British air strikes against Iraqi targets. The letter also >declared, the Russian leadership's firm intention to obtain a rapid >political settlement to the Iraqi problem, including the lifting of >sanctions against Iraq. > >In an interview with Al-Djazira television reported by Interfax, >Ivanov stated, "It is necessary to work out steps that would >provide for the carrying out of UN Security Council resolutions >concerning Iraq and guarantee reliable control over banned military >programs." The Russian foreign minister also called for a UN >dialogue on the subject but said that the talks are in deadlock and >implied that Iraqis are not the ones responsible for the delay. > >The Russians are working hard to strengthen ties with Iraq and in >the process will strain relations with the United States. A Russian >airline, Vnukovo, is going to begin regular service to Baghdad, >although it will be labeled as a special charter. A group of >Russian scientists recently visited Baghdad to protest sanctions. > >However, this has as much to do with oil as it does with global >power politics. In a memorandum to UN Secretary General Kofi Anan, >Ivanov noted that sanctions against Iraq have cost Russia $30 >billion over the past decade. Ivanov got this number from Yuri >Shafranik, who leads the committee for Russian cooperation with >Iraq and is a director of the Russian Central Fuel Company. > >Russian firms are in danger of losing access to Iraq's vast western >oil fields and now the Russian government is using foreign policy >as a lever in this struggle. Recently, Amer Rasheed, Iraq's oil >minister, threatened to cancel a contract with Russia's giant >Lukoil to develop the Kurna oil field in western Iraq, one of the >largest in the world. The Russians say it has the potential to >produce 200 million tons of oil. The Iraqis complained that the >Russians have done nothing to develop the field; the Russians >countered that the sanctions make that impossible. > >The Iraqis agree and appear to have made a quid pro quo quite >clear: If the Russians will get rid of the sanctions, the Iraqis >will give them the keys to the western oil fields. The Russian >government has a lot to lose in Iraq, and little to lose in >challenging the Americans at the United Nations. This is a perfect >marriage between geopolitical interests and economic ones. > >It's important to understand that this is not just talk. The >Russians want to develop the oil fields. The Iraqis will pull the >contract if they don't do so. Therefore, the Russian government >will engineer a fig leaf solution to weapons inspections, helping >the UN create a regime that is wholly ineffective. This will allow >Moscow to claim that Iraq has met the conditions for ending the >sanctions. > >Although the British and the Americans will object, they will run >into serious problems at the Security Council. Both the Chinese and >the French will buy into a pseudo-inspection system. As important, >the Israeli-Palestinian confrontation has increased anti- >Americanism throughout the Arab world. Recent events will make the >American position harder to maintain. > >While in Baghdad, the Russian delegation insisted that it had no >geopolitical interests in the region. Ironically, the leader of the >delegation of Russian scientists was the director of the country's >geopolitical institute. Pure coincidence, of course. >_______________________________________________ _______________________________________________________ KOMINFORM P.O. 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