IRAQ SANCTIONS MONITOR Number 191
Thursday, January 18, 2001
The daily Monitor is produced by the Mariam Appeal.
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Opec agrees hefty cuts
(Wire services, Thursday 18 January)
Opec leaders have agreed to cut oil production by 1.5 million
barrels a day, starting on the first of February. However Iraq has
agreed to make up any shortfall in world supplies
This is equivalent to 5% of Opec's total production. Analysts
describe it as a "hefty" cut, and predict that oil prices - and the
costs of fuel - are set to rise.
But some member countries such as Iran and Iraq had pushed
for sharper cuts in order to boost their cashflow.
Motivated by the fear that oil prices are falling back from recent
highs, the cartel has long been expected to reduce oil output, but
the extent of the cuts had not yet been finalised.
The reduction in production from the Opec countries is expected
to lead to higher fuel prices around the world, and may add to the
fears of a world-wide recession.
The Opec cartel has been repeatedly warned that a decision to
cut production is likely to send crude prices soaring and threaten
global economic growth.
And a European Commission spokesperson reiterated earlier
on Wednesday that it would be disappointed with a 1.5 million
barrel cut.
"The Commission considers it premature ... that it would be a
very large reduction," said EC energy spokesman Giles Gantelet.
"We fear a negative effect especially on the economies of
consumer countries in terms of inflation," he added.
And anything larger would have caused alarm.
"Anything above a million and a half would be very aggressive
towards the western economies - towards the world's
economies," said Peter Gignoux, an oil trader at Salomon Smith
Barney
The US, in particular, has been trying to apply pressure to Opec
to modify any output cuts.
US Energy Secretary Bill Richardson toured the Middle East
ahead of Wednesday's meeting to urge Opec countries not to go
ahead with steep cuts in oil production.
But his warnings have gone unheeded. Opec is thought to be
targeting a stable oil price of $25 a barrel, more than double the
single digit oil prices seen during 1998 and 1999.
The determination to cut prices follows a drop of almost $10 in
the price of oil from the five- year high of above $35 a barrel
achieved last autumn.
Over the summer, Opec increased production to prevent oil
prices spiralling higher.
The meeting took just a few hours to conclude after cuts had
been informally agreed ahead of the meeting.
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Iraqi vice-president in Cairo talks
(Wire services 18 Jan)
The Iraqi Vice-President, Taha Yassin Ramadan -- who's visiting
Egypt -- has had talks in Cairo with President Mubarak.
There was no immediate word about the details of their
discussions.
Wednesday, 17 January, 2001, 10:05 GMT
Saddam savages Gulf War enemies
Demonstrations against sanctions preceded the speech
Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein has described his Gulf War
opponents as "the enemies of God, the followers of Satan" in a
televised address on the 10th anniversary of the start of the
conflict.
In a defiant speech, he said the war pitted "evil who gathered
from everywhere against those who believed in God and in jihad
[holy war] for the sake of God". His appearance undermined
recent claims by the Iraqi opposition that he was severely ill.
The speech was preceded by a demonstration of about 1,000
people in Baghdad against the international sanctions imposed
on Iraq after it invaded Kuwait in 1990.
The Iraqi leader praised those who had fought for the country a
decade ago, saying those who died had "become the candles
that dispelled the darkness before Iraq".
He said Iraq had been "defending humanity, defending the
principles of the Arab nation". He listed a number of the nations
who had joined the 33-country coalition that assembled against
Iraq, including "America, Britain, Germany, Spain, the
Netherlands, [and] Australia".
But he did not mention Arab countries involved. "How can I give
names and... open the wounds?" he said. Iraq has been trying to
improve regional relations in recent months.
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UN says Iraq neglects health, oil supplies
UNITED NATIONS, Jan 18 (Reuters) - A senior U.N. official
criticized Iraq for not ordering enough supplies for health,
education, water, sanitation and oil equipment under the U.N.
humanitarian program.
A letter to Iraq"s U.N. mission, obtained on Wednesday,
coincided with the 10th anniversary of the Gulf War that drove
Iraqi troops from Kuwait and protests in the Arab world and
beyond at the devastating impact of sanctions imposed after
Baghdad invaded the emirate in August 1990.
"I am gravely concerned at the unacceptably slow rates of
submission of applications, in particularly under the health,
education, water and sanitation as well as the oil sectors," said
Benon Sevan, the U.N. official in charge of the program. Under
the oil-for-food program, Iraq is permitted to sell oil in order to
buy food, medicine and other supplies to ease the impact of U.N.
sanctions imposed after it invaded Kuwait. The goods are
ordered by Iraq according to a plan it submits that is then
approved by Security Council members and Sevan"s office.
Sevan said he was pleased that Iraq had submitted applications
for foodstuffs that exceeded the allocation of $1.582 billion and
said these had been approved. Applications made for
agriculture, food handling, housing and telecommunications had
also been received, he said. During the seventh phase of the
program that started on Jan. 5, Sevan said Iraq had submitted a
total of $4.265 billion in applications for goods compared to
$7.798 billion allocated for the program over the next six months.
Of this amount, some $2.742 billion had been approved by the
United Nations while the others were pending. Another $783.8
million had been blocked in the council"s sanctions committee.
Sevan did not say how many contracts from previous months or
years since the program began in December 1996 were still
blocked.
However, he has urged Washington in the past to release some
of the orders it placed on hold. Baghdad has frequently
complained that some $2 billion in its orders had been blocked
by the United States and to a lesser extent by Britain, the
countries most critical of Iraq.
However, Sevan said that "despite all the concerns expressed
regarding the nutritional and health status of the Iraqi people,"
the value of applications for supplies Iraq submitted for the
health sector was only $83.6 million whereas $624 million had
been allocated. Applications for oil equipment and spare parts
amounted to $22.7 million compared to the proposed budget of
$600 million, Sevan said. For education, applications amounted
to $21.58 million compared to an allocation of $351.5 million
while water and sanitation applications from Iraq amounted to
$184.76 million compared to $551.16 million allocated.
__________________________________________________
Kuwait blasts Iraq, launches diplomatic offensive
KUWAIT, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Kuwait launched a diplomatic
offensive against Iraq on the 10th anniversary of the Gulf War
and accused its former occupier of "aggressive intent."
Kuwait Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Suleiman al-Shaheen
met on Wednesday with the ambassadors to Kuwait of the five
permanent members of the U.N. Security Council to discuss the
"latest threats" by Iraqi officials. Foreign Minister Sheikh Sabah
al-Ahmad al-Sabah contacted his Gulf Arab counterparts to
review the "grave danger" recent Iraqi statements pose to his
small country.
And at the United Nations, Kuwaiti delegate Mansour Al-Otaibi
delivered letters to Secretary-General Kofi Annan and Singapore
ambassador Kishore Mahbubani, this month"s Security Council
president, protesting against Iraqi "threats and provocations."
The identical letters urged the council to warn Baghdad to stop
threatening Kuwait"s security and stability.
__________________________________________________
What was Saddam doing on the first night of bombing?
BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) _ Saddam Hussein drove around the Iraqi
capital wearing the traditional Arab dress and head gear while
allied warplanes bombed his country on the first day of the
Persian Gulf War, according to his personal secretary.
Saddam spent most of the first night at a house in Baghdad,
praying and watching the anti-aircraft fire drawn by the raiding
warplanes, Lt. Gen. Abed Hammeed Mahmoud wrote in a 1997
book, excerpts of which were published in newspapers Tuesday.
"The president was praising and rooting for the anti-aircraft men
to shoot down (warplanes)," Mahmoud wrote. Some Baghdad
residents recall seeing Saddam on the night of Jan. 17, 1991 _
the first day of a six-week campaign that drove Iraqi forces out of
Kuwait _ driving a car accompanied only by Mahmoud. Saddam
"stood in the balcony wearing his night clothes to follow Iraq"s
anti-aircraft fire for most of the first night," Mahmoud said in the
widely read book titled "The Secret Battle, its Leader, the Events
and Facts that Preceded it."
The book was reprinted several times since it first appeared in
1997. The address of the house where Saddam stayed and the
names of its occupants remain unknown to this day. Saddam,
who stayed away from his palaces and residences during the
war, has returned to the house several times since the war,
according to Mahmoud.
"When President Saddam decided to write a speech to his
people on the first night of the war, we did not have the proper
equipment at the house to record it and it was hard to record
while the walls of the house were shaking from the continuous
bombing," Mahmoud wrote. "It took an hour to record a
five-minute speech," he added. Lateef Naseef Jassim, Iraq"s
information minister at the time, was quoted in the book as
saying the tape on which the speech was recorded also had a
popular song by a Bedouin singer.
__________________________________________________
DU admission stokes Gulf war health row
>From THE GUARDIAN, January 18th, 2001
Depleted uranium shells fired by Britain in the Gulf war and the
US in Kosovo contained traces of plutonium and other highly
radioactive particles, the Ministry of Defence and the US
department of energy admitted yesterday.
The fact that DU rounds used by British and US forces contain
far more radioactive isotopes than uranium, which are more
likely to cause cancer, is bound to fuel the controversy over Gulf
war syndrome.
But the additional risk to British and US servicemen was
minimal because the amounts of contaminants were so small, a
MoD spokeswoman in London said yesterday, echoing a Nato
statement issued in Brussels.
The International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna was not so
sure that the dangers of uranium containing even traces of
plutonium were small, saying there was no data on what
happened to contaminated depleted uranium when released
into the atmosphere.
David Kyd, spokesman for the agency, said: 'The science simply
can't provide the answers in terms of the long-term
consequences. It is definitely worth investigating further, not only
in the Balkans but also in Iraq."
In Germany, the defence minister, Rudolf Scharping, yesterday
summoned the US charge d'affaires in Berlin to brief him on the
issue.
The Ministry of Defence said the increase in radiation dose to
British servicemen handling the shells and operating in tanks
with DU shielding because of the contaminates was only 0.8%,
so small as to be minimal.
However, other experts disagreed. John Large, of Large
Associates, said: 'Once this has been fired in anger and is lying
about in dust there is a huge difference in the dangers. A speck
of plutonium is hundreds of times more dangerous than
uranium.'
Mr Large said the only way that products of nuclear fission
known as transuranics - neptunium, plutonium, and americium
- could get into depleted uranium was through reprocessing. 'I
am amazed they have done this.'
Both the US and UK defence organisations denied the uranium
had been reprocessed. The uranium had been supplied from
the same civil source in the US and had accidently been
contaminated because it had been placed in the same
containers as reprocessed material.
Mr Kyd emphasised that the research so far on the effects of DU
was derived from monitoring miners dealing with natural
uranium or the consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster.
Over the past 10 years of controversy about the impact of particle
released when DU shells hit their target, there had been no
civilian research on the battlefield until Nato told the UN where to
find sites it examined in Kosovo last year.
The IAEA, which is taking part in the UN investigation, was
offered some information about the effects of DU munitions by
military sources, but Mr Kyd said it was 'still sketchy on what
happens after vaporisation".
Mr Scharping also ordered a German laboratory, testing
samples from Kosovo, to look specifically for traces of
plutonium. The University of Bristol is also testing Kosovo
samples of depleted uranium.
Mr Scharping made the move after it became known that a
German television programme to be transmitted tonight by the
publicly-owned ARD channel will turn the spotlight on
documents from the US Department of Defence which noted the
possibility of plutonium traces in its weapons.
A spokesman for the US embassy in Berlin said the documents
were openly available on US government websites.
__________________________________________________
Prominent Australians call for end to Iraqi sanctions
CANBERRA, Australia (AP) _ A group of prominent Australians
including a former prime minister and the nation's most senior
Catholic cleric on Wednesday called on the government to
withdraw its support for United Nations sanctions against Iraq.
Marking the 10th anniversary of the end of the Gulf War, the
group sent an open letter to Canberra saying economic
sanctions aimed at ensuring Iraq destroys its weapons of mass
destruction have caused extreme hardship for ordinary Iraqis.
``After a decade of suffering by innocent people and the deaths
of children on a scale far exceeding that caused by any military
weapon in history, the sanctions continue to bring misery and
degradation to all sectors of Iraqi society except their target, the
Iraqi government,'' the letter, signed by 43 people, said.
``It is time for a change of direction.'' The signatories included
former prime minister Malcolm Fraser and Catholic Cardinal
Edward Clancy.
They asked the government to back a lifting of the economic
sanctions but to ensure that strict sanctions remain on military
materials.
__________________________________________________
OPEC To Ratify Cut in Crude Output
>From AP January 17th, 2001
OPEC's top official confirmed Wednesday that all its members
now favor a decrease of 1.5 million barrels a day in crude oil
production, or 5 percent of their current output.
The cuts, which are to take effect Feb. 1, are aimed at keeping
crude prices firm ahead of an expected slowdown in U.S.
economic growth and diminishing seasonal demand for refined
products such as heating oil.
OPEC representatives were to meet informally later in the day to
work out details of the cutback, before ratifying it in a formal
session at OPEC headquarters.
``No one is opposed to it,'' OPEC president Chakib Khelil said of
the planned reduction.
His comments came on top of assertions by Saudi Arabian Oil
Minister Ali Naimi and others that the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries had reached a consensus on a cut of this
size.
The decrease in production is sure to disappoint the
governments of many oil-importing nations. The United States
and European Union had lobbied hard for OPEC to keep crude
flowing at current levels, given their fears of worsening economic
fragility and a possible global recession.
Still, a curtailment of output might not matter much to individuals.
``The cut is not going to have a negative impact on consumers,''
predicted Leo Drollas, chief economist of the London-based
Center for Global Energy Studies. ``It's not too bad. It could have
been worse.'' Perhaps the biggest wildcard for consumers and
OPEC alike is Iraq, an important cartel member, which continues
to withhold the bulk of its crude from the market. Iraq is
embroiled in a pricing dispute with the United Nations, which
regulates all Iraqi exports.
Iraq has not participated in the cartel's production agreements
since the 1991 Gulf War, and OPEC members said they aimed
to trim output regardless of what Iraq does.
However, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others in the group suggested
that OPEC members would make up for any shortfall created by
an Iraqi withdrawal from the market, thereby helping to contain
any surge in prices.
Iraq has slashed its crude exports by approximately 1.7 million
barrels a day, shipping just 600,000 barrels a day in December.
The interruptions have continued this month.
Oil prices have surged in recent weeks, jumping above $30 a
barrel last week in the United States where they reached a
four-week high.
Drollas predicted that U.S. benchmark light, sweet crude would
stay around $28 a barrel in the first quarter as a result of OPEC's
planned production cut.
OPEC members fear that prices could collapse if demand
softens, and energy analysts have said a decision to reduce
output was a foregone conclusion.
In recent weeks, Saudi Arabian officials had publicly advocated
cutting OPEC's current quota by 1.5 million barrels.
Qatar had sought a cut of 2 million barrels a day, but it
moderated its stance. An Iranian source, speaking on condition
of anonymity, suggested earlier that Iran _ OPEC's No. 2
producer _ would ease its demand as well.
OPEC typically acts only with the unanimous agreement of all its
11 members.
The group is eager to avoid repeating its mistake of December
1997, when it decided to boost output shortly before the Asian
financial crisis throttled demand. Prices bottomed out a year
later at around $10 a barrel.
OPEC supplies almost two-fifths of the world's crude, and it
wants to keep prices firm even if the U.S. slowdown infects the
economies of other major oil-importing nations. Its current quota
is 26.7 million barrels a day.
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