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Subject: IRAQ SANCTIONS MONITOR Number 194
Date: Tue, 23 Jan 2001 14:09:40 -0500

IRAQ SANCTIONS MONITOR Number 194
Tuesday, January 23 2001
The Monitor is produced daily on weekdays by the Mariam Appeal
www.mariamappeal.com

_______________________________________________________________
Bush faces Saddam weapons challenge

>From THE TIMES, January 23rd, 2001

The Bush Administration came under pressure yesterday to take action
against Iraq after intelligence reports suggested that President
Saddam Hussein has rebuilt his chemical and biological weapons
factories.

On his first day in office, Mr Bush was confronted with a challenge
from his father's old adversary, suspected by Britain and the United
States of trying to rearm itself with weapons of mass destruction.
Under Anglo-American policy, any attempt by Iraq to produce nuclear,
biological or chemical weapons would lead to military action.
In his inauguration speech, Mr Bush pledged to confront weapons of
mass destruction and, although he did not name Iraq, it was clear
that he had Baghdad in mind. Last week he said that he would be
prepared to attack Iraq if weapons of mass destruction were being
developed there.

An industrial complex in Falluja, a town west of Baghdad, may provide
the pretext for military action, according to The New York Times.
Factories at the site were monitored by the United Nations weapons
inspectors, who were forced to leave Iraq in 1998. The site was then
attacked by American and British aircraft in Operation Desert Fox.
Two of the factories have been rebuilt and another has resumed
production. The three are "dual use", meaning that they have civilian
and military capabilities. One factory produces chlorine, which has
commercial applications but can be used in poison gas; another makes
castor oil for brake fluid but can also produce the biological toxin
ricin.

"Our information tallies with the American assessment," a British
official said. "We are very suspicious about these factories, but we
do not have proof that they are making weapons of mass destruction.
That is why we want weapons inspectors back on the ground to
investigate."

An American expert on the Middle East said that if President Bush
acts against Iraq "it will not be a pinprick, it will be strong and
decisive".

Washington, however, no longer has the international support for
action against Iraq that it could once count upon. France and Russia
are seeking an end to sanctions against the country and are likely to
receive oil contracts when the embargo is lifted.

The Arab world has been angered by support for the sanctions by
Western countries and their failure to intervene to end the recent
violence between Israel and the Palestinians.

Mr Bush may have no option but to act if he wants to contain Saddam.
On New Year's Eve the Iraqi Armed Forces paraded several hundred
tanks and 60 helicopters, which have been refitted since the Gulf War.
American and British jets attacked targets yesterday in the south and
north of Iraq, an Iraqi military spokesman said. No casualties were
reported.

The aircraft, which took off from Kuwait and Turkey, were patrolling
no-fly zones set up after the Gulf War.
______________________________________________________________________

BP and Exxon buying Iraqi crude
>From THE TIMES, January 23rd, 2001

BP AND Exxon Mobil are buying cargoes of Iraqi crude oil in a move
that may indicate a weakening of Western resolve over sanctions
against the Iraqi state.

The decision by BP and Exxon to resume purchases of Iraqi crude has
caused astonishment among rival oil companies, which continue to
boycott Iraqi crude, fearing that cargoes may be tainted by kickbacks
to the Iraqi regime.

Official oil sales under the UN oil-for-food programme collapsed from
2.1 million barrels per day to just 600,000 bpd in December after
Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organisation (SOMO) demanded surcharges of
40 cents per barrel, to be paid directly to Iraqi bank accounts. The
UN programme was designed to provide funds to purchase essential food
and medicine for the Iraqi people and payments are supposed to be
made exclusively into a UN escrow account.
 
Since then buyers of Iraqi crude have been dominated by Russian
companies and obscure traders. These include Italtech from Italy,
Belmetalenergo, a company from Belarus, and Fenar from Lichtenstein.
These buyers will almost certainly sell on the cargoes before the oil
reaches a refinery.
 
BP said it did not deal directly with SOMO but had bought a cargo
from "a reputable trader", "because the market is tight and it was
available". A BP spokesman said it had received contractual
assurances from the seller that the cargo complied with UN rules and
would not have done so without assurances. A spokeswoman for Exxon
confirmed that it had bought cargoes of Iraqi crude. "They did not
come directly from Iraq. We are extremely stringent in following UN
and US guidelines on this issue," she said.

Other oil companies, including Shell and TotalFina Elf, are
continuing to avoid Iraqi oil. According to MEES, the respected
Middle East economic journal, the Iraqi authorities are sticking to
their demands for surcharges, having decided to "institutionalise"
the practice. Privately, some oil traders say that the UN programme
has lost credibility because the organisation is not checking up on
the buyers. "Everyone and his dog is trading Iraqi oil," one trader
said.
 
A Shell spokesman said the company had not bought Iraqi crude since
the beginning of December: "We want an assurance from the Iraqis that
their pricing policy is in line with UN rules. We have yet to receive
that." Iraq first demanded a surcharge last November. The issue came
to a head in December when the UN Office of the Iraqi Programme
refused to approve Iraq's price formula because it was too far below
the market level. However, the UN eventually agreed to a 30 cent per
barrel "discount" from the market price.
 
In a separate development, the Kuwaiti Foreign Minister yesterday
endorsed a front-page editorial in a Kuwaiti newspaper calling for
the lifting of sanctions against Iraq. Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Sabah
said that it was the Iraqi regime which did not want the removal of
the embargo.
 
______________________________________________________________________
__
Syria Has Opened a Pipeline for Iraqi Oil, Observers Say Mideast:
Smuggling may provide Baghdad with $2 million a day and be Bush
administration's first foreign policy challenge.

>From LOS ANGELES TIMES, January 23rd, 2001

In a major test for the Bush administration's new foreign policy
team, Syria has opened a key pipeline to Baghdad's oil, a scheme that
generates at least $2 million daily in illicit funds for the regime
of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, according to senior U.S.
officials, Mideast diplomats and oil experts.

The smuggling operation, launched in mid-November, is now the largest
source of independent income for Baghdad, according to oil experts.
It also represents one of the most flagrant violations yet of U.N.
sanctions imposed because of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990.
On a broader level, the operation reflects ambitious political
agendas in both Iraq and Syria, U.S. officials and Mideast diplomats
say. By offering oil price discounts of up to 50%, Iraq is trying to
lure neighboring countries such as Syria into secret pacts that would
create a long-term economic dependency.

"This allows Saddam to expand his influence in the region in
pernicious ways," said a senior U.S. official. "Poorer countries get
hooked on lower oil prices at a time they need help economically."
Illegal oil shipments are already flowing by land through Turkey and
Jordan and via Iran's sea lanes, but they are "nickel-and-dime
operations" compared with the Syrian route, the official said. The
operations to Turkey and Iran are slow, logistically difficult and
costly due to transfers on both land and sea and heavy bribery along
the way, on top of price discounts, U.S., Mideast and oil sources say.
The 552-mile Syrian pipeline, which runs from Iraq's northern Kirkuk
oil fields to the Mediterranean port of Baniyas, is much more cost-
efficient, thus allowing Iraq to pocket higher profits, oil analysts
say.

Hussein's plans have now lured to his side two of the most important
countries that participated in Operation Desert Storm a decade ago.
Syria dispatched troops and Turkey still provides a base for U.S.
warplanes.

But the illicit oil shipments have continued for so long and reached
such volume that the Turks recently built a terminal on the other
side of the border to receive the oil trucks, oil analysts say.
"These are important elements in Iraq's effort to erode and
ultimately bring about the collapse of U.N. sanctions, particularly
U.N. control of Iraq's oil revenues," said James A. Placke, a former
U.S. diplomat in Iraq now with Cambridge Energy Research
Associates. "Saddam wants to get his hands on the money to show that
U.N. oversight isn't working and isn't worth the effort." The new
Syrian operation is already carrying about 150,000 barrels per day,
producing income that goes straight into Hussein's pockets rather
than to the United Nations "oil for food" program, the sources report.
The capacity of this section of the pipeline is 200,000 barrels per
day, which, if fully used, could produce at least an additional
$500,000 a day for Iraq. But there are questions about whether the
pipeline, which was damaged during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, can
transport at full capacity.

To cover the Iraqi origins of the oil, Syria has begun using much of
the Iraqi oil for domestic consumption and exporting more of its own,
oil analysts say.

Besides getting cheaper oil--a boon to its troubled economy--Syria
has its own political motive, related to the Arab-Israeli peace
process. U.S. officials and Mideast diplomats believe that
authorities in Damascus, the Syrian capital, want to send a message
to the outside world, particularly the United States, about abiding
by U.N. resolutions: Syria shouldn't be expected to comply with
sanctions on Iraq while the world is doing little about an earlier
resolution that calls for Israel to withdraw from the Golan Heights,
the strategic plateau that Israel captured from Syria in 1967.

The new smuggling operation was detected after an unusual increase in
Syrian exports. When pressed by the United States and the United
Nations, Damascus claimed that it was simply getting the pipeline
ready for eventual export, U.S. and U.N. officials say.
Baghdad and Damascus signed a memorandum of understanding in 1998 to
reopen the pipeline, which was closed in 1982 because of disputes
between the two, but like other agreements Iraq has signed with
European and Asian countries, it was not to take effect until after
U.N. sanctions were lifted. The Clinton administration condemned the
agreement at the time and warned Damascus that use of the pipeline
would be a major violation of U.N. sanctions.

After Syria opened the pipeline, the Clinton administration
approached Damascus about getting U.N. approval for its use under the
oil-for-food program, U.S. officials say.

That program allows Iraq to export oil, but all income is channeled
through the United Nations and can be spent only on approved
humanitarian supplies, reparations for Kuwait and aid to the Kurds in
northern Iraq.

The joint Syrian-Iraqi sanctions-busting operation is particularly
odd because of deep animosity between the longtime rivals. Two
decades ago, Baghdad was linked to an assassination attempt against
the late Syrian President Hafez Assad. Diplomatic relations were
finally severed and the pipeline shut down in 1982. Assad died last
June and was succeeded by his son, Bashar.

U.S. officials are concerned that the new income, which could top
$700 million this year, may contribute to Iraq's efforts to rebuild
and expand both its conventional military capability and weapons of
mass destruction, which are no longer under U.N. supervision since
the departure of U.N. weapons inspectors and U.S. and British bombing
raids in 1998.

During the past two years, the United States has monitored Iraq's
steady efforts to rebuild many factories involved in dual-use
materials that are critical to commercial products as well as
chemical and biological weapons. In a report released Jan. 10, the
Pentagon concluded that key facilities are now completed, although it
has no hard evidence yet to prove that the plants west of Baghdad are
actually producing the world's deadliest weapons, U.S. officials said
Monday.

The Bush administration has pledged to hold Iraq to its commitments--
and to hold firm on sanctions until it does.

"It's quite clear from Secretary [Colin L.] Powell's testimony [at
his Senate confirmation hearing], from the statements that President
Bush has made, that there will be a lot of attention to this matter,
that Iraq will be held to its international obligations, and that we
will work with our allies to re-energize the sanctions," State
Department spokesman Richard Boucher said Monday.

But so far, neither the United States nor the United Nations has been
able to convince Turkey, Jordan or Iran. And Syria may be a hard sell
as well in light of serious economic problems, including large
foreign debt, falling exports, low investment, an overvalued currency
and a foreign currency shortage--all at a time when its population is
rising at about 4% per year, according to the U.S.
_________________________________________________________________

UN team to visit Iraq for talks on financing oil industry

BAGHDAD, Jan 23 (AFP) - A UN technical team will visit Baghdad in mid-
February for talks on how to manage 600 million euros (564 million
dollars) allocated for the rehabilitation of Iraq's oil industry, Oil
Minister Amer Rashid was quoted as saying Tuesday.

Quoted by Al-Jumhuriya newspaper, Rashid said his ministry would show
the UN mission "projects to finance locally so as to favour free
management of funds allocated for the development of our oil
industry." Whilst extending the latest six-month stage of the oil-for-
food programme last month, the UN Security Council agreed to release
up to 600 million euros of Iraq's oil income in cash to train and pay
maintenance workers in Iraq's dilapidated oil industry.

The council asked Annan to ensure the money was not diverted by the
Baghdad regime for other purposes.

The move would allow President Saddam Hussein's regime to manage for
the first time a small part of its oil revenues from the tightly
controlled UN account in New York.


Rashid did not mention training or pay but said Iraq had "some future
projects for enlarging and developing its export terminals." Among
these projects were maintenance on the oil pipelines linking Iraq to
Turkey and Syria as well as the construction of another pipeline
between Iraq and Jordan.

The only current legal outlets for Iraqi oil sales, which are
strictly supervised under UN sanctions imposed after the August 1990
invasion of Kuwait, are the Gulf port of Mina al-Bakr and the Turkish
port of Ceyhan.

It has been reported that Syria began to receive Iraqi crude oil on
November 20 through a pipeline that had been closed for 18 years, but
neither Damascus nor Baghdad have confirmed this.

Jordan, which depends on Iraq for all its oil, formed a committee
earlier this month tasked with paving the way for the construction of
a pipeline to carry Iraqi oil to the kingdom.

Iraq's December exports under the UN oil-for-food programme averaged
600, 000 bpd, compared with 2.1 million bpd in November and 2.36
million bpd in October, the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES)
reported Monday.

Exports in January could be even lower than December, MEES said. Only
548, 000 bpd have been confirmed so far.

Current capacity in Iraq is no more than 2.8 million bpd, it said,
adding that there was no early expansion in prospect.
__________________________________________________________________

Iraq says committee 661 blocks 34 contracts signed with international firms

 Text of report by Iraqi radio on 22 January

 A source at the Ministry of Trade has announced that the US and
  British delegates to Committee 661 have blocked 34 contracts
  Iraq signed with international firms under the sixth, seventh
  and eighth stages of the oil-for-food-and-medicine deal.
 
In a statement to the Iraqi News Agency, the source added: The
  contracts blocked included spare parts for installations of the
  oil sector, power generation equipment, electrical equipment,
  cistern trucks, horizontal pumps, threshers, galvanized sheets,
  sterilization materials, milk, stationery, mobile caravans,
  digital switchboards, trailers, recovery vehicles, accelerating
  calibration devices and medical equipment.
 
The source continued: The contracts under which Iraq would have
  obtained the aforesaid equipment, materials, and spare parts
  were signed with Algerian, Yemeni, Jordanian, UAE, Lebanese,
  Philippine, Russian, French, Yugoslav, Italian, Turkish, Swiss,
  Yemeni, Cypriot, Indian, Austrian and Chinese firms.

_________________________________________________________________

Bush Administration Warns Iraq on Weapons Programs

>From NEW YORK TIMES, January 23rd, 2001

The Bush administration warned Iraq today to honor its agreements to
destroy its nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs, but
the White House said it was too soon to say what steps the new
administration would take to ensure Baghdad's compliance.

Responding to a report today that Iraq had rebuilt a series of
factories long suspected of producing chemical and biological
weapons, the new White House spokesman, Ari Fleischer, said, ''The
president expects Saddam Hussein to live up to the agreements that
he's made with the United Nations, especially regarding the
elimination of weapons of mass destruction.''

But when asked how and when the administration would help resume
international inspections of suspected weapons sites and factories,
Mr.Fleischer said, ''I'm not prepared to address that today, but we
will.''

A decade after Mr. Bush's father led a coalition that ousted Iraqi
forces occupying Kuwait, Iraq remains one of the most daunting
foreign policy problems that former President Bill Clinton has left
his successor.

Mr. Bush and his national security advisers -- including Gen. Colin
L. Powell, now secretary of state, and Vice President Dick Cheney,
who both confronted Iraq as top defense officials 10 years ago --
have talked tough about containing President Hussein.
But as they enter office, it is not clear whether they have any
better options than Mr. Clinton had. International support for tough
enforcement of sanctions has waned, while Mr. Hussein has managed to
ease his diplomatic isolation, making it difficult to re-energize
sanctions, as General Powell has suggested.

If Mr. Bush pursues a more aggressive strategy, including military
force, the new administration is likely to find few allies, despite
evidence that Iraq has resumed covert work on dangerous weapons.
As a condition of ending the 1991 Persian Gulf war, Iraq agreed to
destroy its nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs, as
well as the production of long-range missiles to deliver to such
weapons.

But since the middle of 1998, Iraq has barred any meaningful
inspections by teams of United Nations experts, who since the end of
the gulf war had ferreted out and destroyed large quantities of
weapons and uncovered secret programs to create biological and
chemical weapons.

''The challenge is larger than a lot of people suspect,'' said
Representative Porter Goss, a Florida Republican who heads the House
Intelligence Committee.

''To say we've lost our eyes and ears in Iraq is true.''
Clearly, constraining Mr. Hussein's weapons programs is at the core
of the new administration's policy. ''His only tool, the only thing
he can scare us with are those weapons of mass destruction, and we
have to hold him to account,'' General Powell said last week.
Mr. Bush and his top advisers have vowed to reinvigorate the economic
sanctions against Iraq, convince skeptical allies of their value, and
somehow spare Iraqi children from bearing the brunt of their effect.
''The most important thing is to maintain the core sanctions, the key
sanctions that do make it more difficult and prevent Iraq from
rebuilding its weapons programs, particularly its weapons of mass
destruction,'' Richard Boucher, a State Department spokesman, said
today.

But even some of Mr. Bush's own advisers question this approach.
''Re-energizing sanctions is a mistake,'' said Richard Perle, a
foreign policy adviser to Mr. Bush during the campaign. ''Ten years
later, they're an obvious failure.''

The new administration also supports Iraqi opposition whose goal is
to topple Mr. Hussein.

The Clinton administration provided only tepid support to the Iraqi
opposition. Although President Clinton signed a law in 1998
authorizing $98 million in military aid and equipment, the
administration provided very little in the end and explicitly refused
to provide any weapons.

Under pressure, the Pentagon began providing some direct military
training to Iraqi dissidents and opposition leaders in the fall of
1999. Since then, the Pentagon has given courses to 90 members of the
Iraqi National Congress -- including 27 at a public affairs seminar
in London last summer and 43 who went to a one-week course on war
crimes in November at the Defense Institute of International Studies
in Newport, R.I. Training continues, but it does not involve combat-
related skills.

Senior military commanders opposed giving much military aid to the
Iraqi groups, warning that they were too weak and fractious to pose a
serious threat to Mr. Hussein's rule.

The Bush administration would be committed to the opposition's cause,
aides say. ''What we have in mind is making it clear to Saddam and
the world that we're in favor of seeing this regime change,'' Mr.
Perle said. ''We'll support freedom fighters who are prepared to
engage in a long-term struggle.''

The Bush administration has not ruled out bombing suspected weapons
sites as a last resort. ''If, in fact, Saddam Hussein were taking
steps to try to rebuild nuclear capability or weapons of mass
destruction, we'd have to give very serious consideration to military
action,'' Mr. Cheney said in a debate on Oct. 5.
As they departed, Clinton administration officials defended their
policies.

Walter B. Slocombe, who stepped down last week as Under Secretary of
Defense for Policy, said of Mr. Hussein, ''I don't want to claim he
hasn't made progress, but he's still in the box.''
_________________________________________________________________

Disease rising in Iraq due to sanctions -- minister.

MOSCOW, January 23 (Itar-Tass) - Iraq's disease rates have increased
20 times since economic sanctions were imposed on Baghdad 10 years
ago, visiting Iraqi Health Minister Umeed Madhat Mubarak said on
Tuesday. 

"We still cannot fully define the consequences of American aggression
and the use by the U.S. of arms of mass destruction," Mubarak told
Itar-Tass. 

Iraq is having "a sharply rising number of caner patients",
especially those affected with blood diseases, he said.
Moreover, Iraqi medical science has coined the term "death from
malnutrition", he said, adding that due to lack of medicine diseases
which were considered conquered, such as cholera, have made a
comeback. 

Iraqi scientists have registered animal mutation, especially in
regions in which hostilities had been under way, and plant disease
has become widespread, according to him.

The situation is difficult, but "we do not stop work, we are trying
to find internal resources without hoping for foreign aid," he said.
"We have achieved a lot, people hope that the economic embargo will
not last for ever," he said.

_________________________________________________________________

Iraq now a 'wild card' troubling OPEC: MEES

January 22nd, 2001 

NICOSIA (AFX) - Iraq's decision to maintain a surcharge on oil
exports despite a drop in sales, and the country's lower than
expected production rates make it a "wild card" among OPEC members,
the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) reported.

Iraq is a "wild card which will, more than any other factor,
determine what the OPEC 10 need to do on the supply side," MEES said.
OPEC's decision earlier this month to cut production by 1.5 mln bpd
or 5 pct was based on the assumption that Iraq would return to full
production in early February. However, signs are that January exports
by Iraq may be even lower than December, with only 548,000 bpd so far
confirmed, MEES said.

December exports under the UN oil-for-food programme averaged 600,000
bpd, compared with 2.1 million bpd in November and 2.36 million bpd
in October.

However, Saudi Arabia has said it will adjust production to balance
any loss of Iraqi output.

MEES said that Iraqi authorities have now set up a new surcharge
system, "the clear implication being that it will remain in place
over the long haul." It added that "some international oil companies
are exploring ways of accommodating the Iraqi demand."

Iraq demands that the surcharge be paid outside UN control in an
attempt to end sanctions. Iraq's original surcharge of 50 cents per
barrel has been dropped to 40 cents, MEES added.
_______________________________________________________________

Sanctions Against Iraq Violate Int'l Law: Former U.N. Envoy

KUALA LUMPUR, January 22 (Xinhua)--Former United Nations Humanitarian
Coordinator to Iraq, Hans Van Sponech, Monday described the U.N.
economic sanctions on Iraq as ``violations of international law''.
The reasons behind the U.N. Security Council's decision on the
sanctions against Iraq after the Gulf War in 1990 had since lapsed
and could not stand on their own anymore, he said at the forum
Promoting a Culture of Peace: The Effect of U.N. Imposed Sanctions
here.

Van Sponech held the post from 1998 to 2000 before resigning to
protest against the 10-year old sanctions.
He said it was an immoral and unethical act against the innocent
people of Iraq.

Providing the audience with statistics during the forum, he said that
as a result of the sanctions, 21 percent of Iraqi children suffered
from malnutrition while child mortality increased by 196 percent
apart from a higher incidence of leukemia.

He said that the countries which wanted the continuation of the
sanctions had engaged in ``organized lies'' to present a different
picture of Iraq to the world community.

Also calling for the abolishment of the U.N.-administered ``Oil-for-
Food'' program aimed at enabling Iraq to sell its oil to buy basic
needs, Van Sponech said the measure was devised earlier only as a
temporary solution but now the U.N. was trying to make it permanent
by refining and institutionalizing the program.

The forum was organized by the Pan Pacific and South East Asia
Women's Association of Malaysia.
__________________________________________________________________

Iraq reports confrontations with allied warplanes

January 22nd, 2001 

BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) _ Iraq reported Monday that U.S. and British
``enemy ravens'' bombed civilian buildings in the northern and
southern parts of the country.

No casualties were reported in the airstrikes, the second since the
Saturday inauguration of George W. Bush as president of the United
States.

In a statement carried by the official Iraqi News Agency, the Iraqi
military said that ``enemy ravens, with direct support from the
rulers of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia violated our national airspace ...
and bombed some of our civil and service installations.'' The
statement said there were bombings in both the northern and southern
no-fly zones but did not specify exactly where.

``Civil and service installations'' usually refer to government
offices responsible for offering public services to the people.
On Saturday, Iraq said six people were killed and three injured in
airstrikes by U.S. and British warplanes over southern Iraq. It said
its air defense units hit one of the aircraft.
The U.S. military denied any aircraft was hit, saying all planes
returned safely after a raid conducted in response to Iraqi anti-
aircraft fire.

Allied aircraft patrol the no-fly zones over southern and northern
Iraq, which were established after the 1991 Gulf War to protect
Shiite Muslim rebels from Iraqi government forces in the south and
Kurds in the north.

Iraq does not recognize the no-fly zones and has been challenging
allied aircraft since December 1998.

_________________________________________________________________
Iraq rebuilt weapons factories


NEW YORK, Jan. 22 (UPI) -- Iraq has rebuilt several factories the
United States has long suspected of producing chemical and biological
weapons, The New York Times reported Monday.
 
The newspaper said the factories include two that were bombed by U.S.
and British warplanes two years ago to punish Iraqi President Saddam
Hussein for refusal to cooperate with U.N. weapons inspectors.
 
Since air strikes in December of 1998, Iraq has refused to let
weapons inspectors into the country. Officials said that without the
inspections, the United States did not yet have firm evidence the
factories are now producing chemical or biological agents.
But a senior officer who closely follows Iraqi affairs and Hussein
said, "We don't know for sure, but given his (Hussein) past known
behavior, there's probably a pretty fair chance that's what's
happening." 
 
The Times said the intelligence estimates were mentioned without
detail in a report on weapons threats released two weeks ago by the
outgoing secretary of defense, William Cohen. The report warned that
Iraq had rebuilt its weapons infrastructure, and may have begun
producing chemical or biological agents.
 
In his inaugural address Saturday, President Bush did not mention
Iraq specifically but vowed to "confront weapons of mass destruction,
so that a new century is spared new horrors."
In an interview before taking office, he suggested that his
administration would not tolerate an Iraq re-armed with nuclear,
chemical or biological weapons.
  
 ________________________________________________________________

Iraq complains to Arab League of US-British `aggression`

 Text of report by Iraqi radio on 22 January

 Iraq has reiterated its categorical rejection of the so-called
  no-fly zones unilaterally enforced by the United States and
  Britain against the wishes of the international community.

 In a letter to Arab League Secretary-General Dr Ahmad Ismat
  Abd-al-Majid, Foreign Minister Muhammad Sa'id al-Sahhaf said
  that since 1990, the continuing US-UK aggression against Iraq
  has become a firm policy aimed at undermining Iraq's
  sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity, and alsoat
  further hurting the steadfast and mujahid Iraqi people.
 
The foreign minister indicated that the US and UK aircraft
  taking off from bases on Saudi and Kuwaiti territory conducted
  168 combat air sorties during period 1-9 January. One hundred
  sorties originated on Saudi territory and 68 others originated
  on Kuwaiti territory, Al-Sahhaf maintained.
 
_____________________________________________________________

Iraqi Foreign Minister To Lead Talk

January 22nd, 2001 

UNITED NATIONS (AP) _ U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan and Iraq's
foreign minister will hold talks next month on ending the stalemate
over U.N. sanctions and weapons inspections, a spokesman for the
world body said Monday.

The meetings will take place Feb. 26 and 27, spokesman Fred Eckhard
said. He said Foreign Minister Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf will travel
to U.N. headquarters in New York for the talks with Annan and other
senior U.N. officials.

U.N. sources disclosed the talks last week but the dates and
participants had not previously been confirmed.

The meetings were supposed to have begun in January but were put off
after Iraq didn't respond in time with ideas for an agenda. The U.N.
secretariat has not yet received anything in writing on the contents
of the talks, Eckhard said.

Iraq is looking to the talks as a step toward ending the sanctions,
which were imposed in 1990 after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. Topping
the U.N. agenda will be the return of weapons inspectors, barred
since they pulled out in late 1998 ahead of U.S. and British
airstrikes.

During a summit in Qatar in November, Annan made clear that he is
bound by Security Council resolutions requiring inspectors to report
that Iraq has destroyed its weapons of mass destruction before
sanctions can be lifted, Eckhard said.
Claiming that its weapons of mass destruction have been eliminated,
Iraq has demanded that sanctions be lifted immediately.
But the United States and other council members insist that without a
resumption of inspections, the Security Council cannot make any
determination.


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