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Sent: Monday, April 02, 2001 3:18 PM
Subject: NATO Needs to Grow [STOPNATO.ORG.UK]


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#9
New York Times

April 2, 2001

NATO Needs to Grow

By ANTONY J. BLINKEN

Antony J. Blinken, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International
Studies, was President Bill Clinton's senior adviser for European affairs.

WASHINGTON-The turn toward confrontation in America's relations with Russia
threatens to undermine the expansion of NATO in northern Europe, a prospect
that could seriously damage American security interests. If the current
difficulties persist, Moscow will try to draw a red line around the Baltic
states, keeping them out of the treaty organization  and the European
allies
will probably go along. This would result in a fundamental weakening of
NATO's role in bringing stability to post-cold-war Europe.

During the presidential campaign, NATO enlargement was among the few foreign
policy issues that caught the candidates' attention. George W. Bush and Al
Gore both indicated their support for it. Among the nine countries seeking
membership, Lithuania is the most advanced in reaching NATO's military
standards; Latvia and Estonia are not far behind. Failure to include one of
them in the next enlargement would destroy the incentive for would-be NATO
members to meet those standards.

When President Clinton opened NATO's doors in 1994, some predicted a crisis
with Russia. That did not occur, mainly because the Kremlin understood that
NATO enlargement did not threaten Russia's interests. President Clinton also
negotiated a special security partnership between NATO and Russia, and made
clear that America was more concerned by a weak Russia than a strong one.

The Bush administration, if it remains committed to enlarging NATO, needs to
lay the groundwork with Russia. It should begin by toning down its rhetoric.
The administration can use less confrontational terms to make clear its
concerns about Russian nuclear proliferation, Chechnya and President
Vladimir
Putin's ambiguous attitude toward democracy.

The administration should look for ways to enhance cooperation between NATO
and Russia. Since the Kursk submarine incident, the Russians have indicated
their interest in talking to NATO about maritime safety. NATO could propose
information exchange and search-and-rescue coordination. The Russians also
want to discuss theater missile defense, a useful acknowledgment that
nuclear
proliferation is a threat to both Russia and the West. Finally, Moscow
wants,
and deserves, more of a say in the peacekeeping operation in Bosnia.

The Bush administration should make the case to Moscow that NATO enlargement
to the Baltic states would advance Russia's own interests as well as ours.
Russia wants stability along its Western borders, neighbors who treat their
Russian minorities with respect and prosperous trading partners. NATO
enlargement promotes such developments. Aspirants know that strong
democratic
structures, respect for minority rights and free markets are necessary for
inclusion in the club; just as important, they are necessary to remain
members in good standing.

NATO's three newest members  Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, all
added in the first enlargement, in 1999  have concluded 10 agreements
among
themselves and with their neighbors to ensure stable borders, promote
interstate cooperation and address minority concerns. Not coincidentally,
Hungary and Poland enjoy two of the strongest growth rates in Europe.

Finally, NATO must make it clear that, as was the case in 1999, it does not
intend to place nuclear weapons or station foreign troops on the soil of new
allies.

Bringing the Baltics into the alliance is not a zero sum game in which
NATO's
gain is Russia's loss, NATO's strength Russia's weakness. But unless the
administration acts soon to convince it otherwise, that is what Russia will
believe. Then further enlargement could become so difficult that NATO's
first
three new members may prove to be its last.

Miroslav Antic,
http://www.antic.org/SNN/


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