----- Original Message ----- From: Barry Stoller <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Friday, April 06, 2001 6:50 PM Subject: [downwithcapitalism] FW: Recession takes root in U.S. Business Week. 16 April 2001. Suddenly, it's the big freeze. Excerpts. The problem: an onslaught of hiring freezes throughout Corporate America. Many a job searcher has been hit with a cold lesson in reality this past winter: the signing perks, fancy recruiting lunches, and multiple job offers of a year ago have given way to good old-fashioned pounding the pavement for months at a stretch. Sighs former Chicago dot-com public relations exec Katherine Sopranos: "I've interviewed with four major companies, and all four said they would hire me on the spot if it weren't for a hiring freeze." Sopranos is not alone. From the unemployed blue-collar workers cast off by a manufacturing sector deep in recession, to white-collar managers, marketing executives, and info-tech workers facing layoffs at companies stunned by the suddenness of the downturn, job seekers in a wide swath of industries are finding their prospects limited as a slew of No Vacancy signs pops up across the country. The new hiring freezes may well prove to be a harbinger of worse news to come. Low unemployment and the buoyant job market have been a key reason consumer confidence--and consumer spending--have remained relatively strong even as the economic downturn has intensified. But if the number of jobs on offer continues to shrink, while layoffs ratchet up, a sharp rise in unemployment could be the inevitable result. Already, evidence is mounting that the labor market is shifting from a shortage to a surplus. Until very recently, workers who were bounced could feel confident about new opportunities. But that's no longer the case. The Conference Board's Help Wanted Advertising Index has plunged 20 points since last year, to 71, its lowest level since 1993. The index' 22% plunge is a source of worry for economists: Since the 1970s, whenever the index has fallen by 15% or more, a recession soon followed. "Just about everybody has freezes on right now, even if they are quiet freezes," says Jeffrey E. Christian, CEO of Cleveland search firm Christian & Timbers. There are plenty of other indicators of tough times ahead for U.S. workers as well. Private unemployment--which tallies jobs in the private sector, excluding government posts--jumped from 4% in December to 4.5% in February. Equally ominous, the National Association of Purchasing Management surveys of hiring at both manufacturing and service companies show precipitous declines over the past year. If economists' worst predictions come to pass, and if weak earnings persist into the second and third quarters, the overall unemployment rate could rise to 5% by the end of this year, according to John Graham, finance professor at Duke University's J.B. Fuqua School of Business. That may still be a healthy employment level by traditional standards [!!!!], but try telling that to the multitude of workers who will be joining the unemployment rolls. PLEASE DISREGARD ANY SPAM THAT MAY FOLLOW THIS LINE Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
