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----- Original Message ----- 
From: Magnus Bernhardsen <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2001 1:22 PM
Subject: [red_activism] Nepal: Civil War in the Making


This is an interesting report from Nepal. Especially the change in tone
from CPN-UML...

http://www.nepalnews.com.np/contents/englishweekly/telegraph/2001/may/may02/
index.htm#2
Civil war in the making: Maoists' the fourth political force!

Kathmandu: The rumor spread by the government media mill that the
constitutional monarch has already given his assent to the mobilization of
the Army in the Maoists' affected areas remains yet to be substantiated
from the responsible quarters.

 
The monarch as the Supreme Commander of the Royal Nepal Army must notify
the entire population that the rumors diffused by the government were
accurate and that soon the Army will proceed to the Western parts of the
country to contain the threats of the Maoists insurgents.

The fact is that the Royal Palace is yet to confirm the talks of the
mobilization of the Army as has been given to understand by the Koirala
regime to the population. The practice has been that as and when such
actions of such grave dimensions were taken, the Royal Palace releases a
statement to that effect through the media section of the Palace.

 
However, nothing so far has come out from the Palace that confirms the
government's assertion or whatsoever.

At a time when the popular will has been that the government initiate
dialogues with the Maoists insurgents and bring about a peaceful atmosphere
in the nation, the top hat of the main opposition, UML, Madhav Kumar Nepal
has -deliberate or otherwise, point blank has elevated the rank of the
Maoists party.

"Whether one likes it or not, the Maoists have already become the fourth
force in the country", said a beaming UML leader Madhav Nepal yesterday at
a program conducted by a center led by former speaker, Daman Nath Dhungana.

Interestingly, Madhav Nepal's blunt assertion in favor of the Maoists has
come at a time when the government under Koirala is preparing major
offensive against the insurgents under the camouflage of the integrated
approach, which apparently has more sticks than carrots. 

The Maoists issue being a "political one", the government must deal with it
in a political manner and refrain from the use of the army force to crush
the insurgents, Madhav Nepal added.

This sudden change in tone acquired by Madhav Nepal regarding his party's
perception over the Maoists issue apparently is loaded with significance in
the sense that it has come at a time when the nation remains divided over
how to tame the Maoists: through the use of military force or opt for
meaningful dialogues.

The fact is that except the Girija regime, the rest of the major political
actors of the nation prefer the option of the talks with the insurgents.

Undoubtedly, Madhav's sudden sympathy and love towards the insurgents
should have emboldened the latter for it was Madhav;'s statement that has
surprisingly elevated the ranks of the Maoists forces and has brought at
par with other political actors of the nation.

To recall, the government under Koirala, though it has always treated the
Maoists insurgency as a terrorist act, however, the regime has not been
able to dub it as an out-lawed conglomerate for reasons unknown to many
Nepalese intellectuals.

Watchers of Nepali politics see in Madhav's statement some sort of
"solidarity" in between the two communist groupings. The difference in
between the two, in effect, is that one is championing the democratic
process for the time being and the other one is in the jungles and vows to
install "republicanism" in this Kingdom.

How the government reacts to UML leaders' new declaration made regarding
the insurgents is yet unclear. Similarly, whether other political actors,
for example, the congress, the NSP, the RPP and a host of others, take
Madhav's assertion will have to be watched.

Be that as it may, Madhav Nepal's expression might appear to some of having
little significance, but Kathmandu analysts attach great significance to
his frank admission when he said at the said program that if the inclusion
of the Maoists in arriving at a peaceful situation in the country, one must
not think it the other way.

In essence, Madhav suggested that the congress, the communists and the
constitutional monarch must come to terms with the Maoists to save the
nation from going to the brink.

 
Now all that has to be carefully watched is the separate overtures of
different political parties over Madhav's new proposition.

Telegraph adds: In the meanwhile, Bamdev Gautam, leader of the ML too has
hinted that the mobilization of the army could not be the solution to the
Maoists imbroglio. He questioned as to what would happen if the military
failed? What is the guarantee that the army will succeed in its new
mission? What if the military succeeds and later disobeys the King?

Others opine that the mobilization of the army in the affected areas would
mean the "direct rule" of the army in those areas. Some even say that the
already mobilized army will have its own rule there and will care little
the dictates of the local civilian administration thus a sort of dual rule
in the nation will commence which might invite a sort of civil war in the
otherwise peaceful nation.




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