Special article. Sino-US ties. China's State Security Strategy Considered from Perspective of US Strategic Trend: Analysis Since George W. Bush took office, many people have cherished optimistic expectations of the future development of Sino-US relations, thinking that there would not be much change in China-US relations, however, over the past few months since Bush came to power, a series of situations have emerged in China-US ties: Media reports say that a new round of defense estimate report submitted by US secretary of defense to Bush suggests that the United States shift its strategic focus from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean and regard China as the main rival; US surveillance aircraft rammed into and destroyed a Chinese military plane and encroached upon China's airspace; the United States intensified its arms sales to Taiwan in disregard of China's opposition; the United States again allowed Lee Teng-hui's visit to the country and Chen Shuibian's transit in defiance of China's opposition; Bush has threatened that if China uses force against Taiwan, the United States will assist Taiwan in its defense; media reports say that the number of US Pacific aircraft carriers will be doubled, the deployment of US nuclear weapons directed against China will also be doubled; Bush explicitly declared on May 1 that he would break through the restraint of the anti-ballistic missiles treaty signed between the United States and the Soviet Union in 1972 and develop a missile defense system. This situation has broken the anticipation by some scholars who thought there would be frictions in China-US relations in the first half and improvement in the latter half of the year, it has, indeed, taught us a lesson: The United States has conducted strategic readjustment directed against China, which regards China as the main source of threat and as the principal opponent which the United States has to cope with and guard against. In light of these situations, we must make new judgment on US global strategy and its policy toward China, we must also consider our countermeasures and various items of work in terms of the worst possibility. Why Does the US Make China Its Strategic Opponent? President Jiang Zemin and US President Bill Clinton jointly set the target for China and the United States to "devote their efforts to establishing a constructive strategic partnership oriented to the 21st century". In less than four years, however, the United States again regards China as its strategic opponent, this is really something unexpected. But a careful observation of the path taken by US strategic circle makes it easy to discover that this change of today does not come all of a sudden. Clinton's China policy is built on the strategic thinking of liberalism and idealism. According to this thinking, after the conclusion of the Cold War, there was not a large country that could become the rival of the United States. Through economic globalization and liberalization and through implementation of the US concept of value, the United States can establish a global system under its domination; through contacts and exchanges, it can draw countries like China into the US-dominated global system. Clinton's China policy also contained the two aspects of contact and containment with emphasis on the former. In terms of security, the United States mainly guards against "rogue countries", therefore US defense strategy calls for simultaneous winning of two regional wars-taking Iraq and Korea as the objects respectively, in terms of strategy, in many aspects, the United States needed to cooperate with China. However, Clinton's strategic thinking was not accepted by US strategic circle. From the latter half of the 90s, realism again took the upper hand in US strategic circle. This thinking held: The world today remains a dangerous and chaotic world, a world ruled by power politics and not by the legal system. In this world, the threat facing the United States is more decentralized, more direct and more striking. The United States currently enjoys economic, military and technological advantages, and diplomatic influence. If it does not make use of these advantages to take part in world affairs and maintain its strategic advantage for coping with potential and long-term competition, the world will become even more dangerous, the interests of the United States and its allies will be subject to more serious threat. At the same time, the US economic strength is controlled mainly in the hands of enterprises. The enterprises act in line with their own interests instead of national interests. Given this situation, the United States needs to determine a long-existing main source of threat and take it as the target for solving problems related to its national security strategy to bring about a consensus of various quarters and make concentrated use of resources. The strategic thinking of US realism holds: Judging from the current world situation, the United States does not face a strategic opponent of the same level, but there exist regional strategic competitors, of whom the most fundamental ones are Russia and China. Russia's threat lies mainly in its possession of a strategic arsenal second only to that of the United States, however, Russia is a country which has not as yet ended chaos and its future is uncertain. China's threat lies in the fact that China is large regional country in the ascendant, along with the rise in its national strength, it is possible that it will expand its influence in the Asia-Pacific region, and there is a growing possibility for a war to break out between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, this will pose a direct challenge to US interest in the Asia-Pacific region. In terms of the concept of value and the social system, China still adheres to socialism, while Russia has accepted the stuffs of the West. In terms of strategic intention, Russia will continue to practice strategic reduction for a considerably long period of time to come and have no intention of confrontation with the United States, while China, due to the Taiwan issue, will face a surge of nationalism resulted from the rise in its national strength, so there also exists the possibility of confrontation with the United States. It is on such a basis that the US strategic circle has clearly taken China as the main source of threat and the principal opponent. With Target at Source of Threat, It Is Possible to Boost Reshaping of US Defense Strategy Bush's declaration made during his presidential campaign that China was US strategic competitor had clearly reflected the realist thinking of the strategic circle, after his assumption of office, he naturally turned this thinking into policy. In fact, his cabinet is composed of people with this strategic thinking of realism. Under the circumstance of making China the main opponent, US main strategic consideration concerning China is: Preventing China from further becoming a strategic competitor near the same level as that of the United States; preventing China from challenging US hegemonic position and interest in the Asia-Pacific region; and preventing China from forming possible alliance with other regional competitors. In Line with Such Strategic Intention, Its China Strategy Based Mainly on Deterrence and Containment Has Become Crystal Clear Although ideology and the concept of value are not the main points of US strategic realism, they are an important tool for mobilizing various domestic forces to serve its strategic target and embody consensus. Therefore, it is inevitable that the United States continues to apply pressure on China by using problems such as human rights, democracy and freedom. Judged from US strategic readjustment and its strategic intention relating to China, it is unfounded to expect that China-US relations could turn for the better in the second half of the year, cherishing such a hope can only further lower one's guard and thus completely deprive one of his strategic initiative. The incident of the American EP-3 reconnaissance aircraft that bumped into and destroyed a Chinese fighter jet was only a specific event. Why Is It That Our Understanding Lags Far Behind in Regard to US Strategic Readjustment? For a long time in the past, people have had one-sided understanding of the formulation that "peace and development are the main theme of our time". During the period of Cold War, peace referred to the assumption that a world war would not break out, but such peace was conditional. It was based on the fact that both superpowers were in possession of nuclear weapons that could destroy the opponent dozens of times, forming a strategic balance set up on the basis of ensuring mutual destruction and large-scale retaliation, therefore there was only Cold War and no world war. During the Clinton period after the conclusion of Cold War, under the condition wherein the United States constructed an international system in line with the strategic thinking of liberalism, the United States did not change the strategic balance set up on the basis of ensuring mutual destruction and large-scale retaliation, so it made it possible to avert war between large countries. However, we have overestimated the possibility of US continuing its strategy of liberalism, and we lacked sufficient understanding of the notion that geographical politics featuring strength confrontation remains the main content of the world politics and lost alertness to the rise of realism among US strategic circle, such a situation has led to our understanding falling behind the development of reality. On the other hand, the over-optimistic view about the multilateral development trend has also led to the overestimation by many of our comrades about the growth of the peace forces; estimation of hegemonism under restraint; estimation of the contribution made by economic globalization to peace. As a result, our judgement on the world trend was based on the understanding that relaxation was the mainstream of the world, and we underestimated the US strategic intention and ability for world domination, and underestimated US strategic intention which regards China as its main opponent, and underestimated the possibility that we would face a grim situation. Judged from the present US strategic intention, the United States has made it clear that it would break the strategic balance set up on the basis of ensuring mutual destruction and large-scale reprisal, and construct absolute security for itself and for its allies, at the same time, it would establish its sea, air and space control power capable of effectively coping with any threats. Judged from US military, economic, technological and diplomatic capabilities, the United States does have the conditions to support its national strategy to move toward this direction. Although US allies have divergent views about this, which, however, cannot obstruct the United States from moving toward this direction. Russia has interest conflict with the United States over this matter, which, however, cannot change the US intention of strategic readjustment. The strategic pressure facing us has been greatly increased. The security situation currently confronting us is regarded as the primary, not the secondary, opponent by the only superpower in the world. This situation is not transient, but will continue for quite a long period of time. In the face of such a situation, we must consider our country's security strategy, development strategy and unification strategy from the worst possibility, not the best possibility, and proceeding from our reality, not from the conception and principle of idealism. Only in this way can we keep a firm foothold under the grim situation. _________________________________________________ KOMINFORM P.O. 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