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Subject: Got Job Security? U.S. payrolls fall sharply in June [WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK]


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[FYI New Jobs in Utah are $5.15 to $8.00 an hour.]
 

"Inflation pressures appeared to be relatively muted as workers' wages grew 
0.3 percent to $14.29 an hour in June from $14.25 in May."


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U.S. payrolls fall sharply in June

By Mark Egan

  
WASHINGTON, July 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. jobless rate edged up in June and job 
losses mounted as weakness spread to the service sector of the economy, the 
government said on Friday in a report that cast a shadow on other recent 
upbeat data. 

The Labor Department's employment report for June portrayed a weaker jobs 
market than many had expected as 114,000 nonfarm jobs were lost and the 
jobless rate ticked higher to 4.5 percent from 4.4 percent in May. 

Economists polled by Reuters had expected 44,000 job losses in June and the 
jobless rate to rise to 4.6 percent. 

The closely watched report showed average hours worked per week remained 
steady in June at 34.3 hours. Inflation pressures appeared to be relatively 
muted as workers' wages grew 0.3 percent to $14.29 an hour in June from 
$14.25 in May. 

The report revised employment data for May to show that 8,000 jobs were added 
outside the farm sector that month, a big improvement from the 19,000 job 
losses recorded when the May figures were issued last month. 

Labor also said that the economy shed 165,000 jobs in April, better than the 
previously reported 182,000 job cuts. For the second quarter, a total of 
271,000 jobs were lost. 

While on the face of it the report seemed broadly negative, many economists 
took solace from other recent positive data -- improvements in weekly jobless 
claims, firmness in the housing market, improving consumer confidence and 
orders for durable goods -- as harbingers that the slowdown may have hit 
bottom. 

AN ABERRATION 

"This does not derail the outlook for the economy to recover during the 
second half of the year," said Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock 
Financial Services. 

"It seems to me that this is probably an aberration," Cheney said, adding 
that other recent data point to an improving economy in the months ahead. 

Still, economists said the smaller-than-expected rise in the unemployment 
rate was more due to disheartened workers leaving the labor force, which 
tends to hold the rate down, than to any resilience in the economy. They 
cited the average hours worked data as a sign growth is anemic. 

Most economists expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again 
when it next meets in August -- an expectation bolstered by the jobs data. 
The powerful central bank has cut rates six times this year, by a total of 
2.75 percentage points, and has indicated it is prepared to do more should 
the economy deteriorate further. 

U.S. Treasuries were little moved by the data but stocks had a bruising day, 
weighed by signs that the economy was still struggling and corporate profit 
warnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 2.17 percent lower while 
the technology-laden Nasdaq index shed 3.65 percent on the day. 

Economists see a rise in job losses as a risk to economic recovery as higher 
unemployment tends to sap consumer confidence and could lead to lower 
spending. But at 4.5 percent, the jobless rate is still low by historical 
standards. 

Most observers expect the effect of lower interest rates -- which economists 
estimate can take six to 18 months to fully impact the economy -- and lower 
taxes to help buoy economic activity in the second half of the year. 

NOT OVER YET? 

But not everyone was upbeat about the data, with some pointing to the fact 
that the manufacturing sector has shed 785,000 workers between August of last 
year and June. 

Perhaps the most worrisome aspect of the report was that the weakness in 
manufacturing seemed to have spread to the service segment of the economy, 
which has countered softness elsewhere in recent months. 

With fewer goods being produced, the factory slump appeared to take a toll on 
related fields such as transportation, where employment fell by 11,000 in 
June and wholesale trade where 15,000 positions were lost during the month. 

"The slowdown isn't behind us just yet," said Joel Naroff, president of 
Naroff Economic Advisors, adding that a few more months of steep job losses 
could lead to a recession, commonly defined as at least two quarter of 
economic contraction. 

"It's hard to really determine when the manufacturing sector will get its act 
together and until it does, we will have more problems," Naroff said. 

June proved another bruising month for manufacturing, with 113,000 jobs shed 
after a loss of 127,000 in May -- taking consecutive months of job losses in 
that area of the economy to 11. But economists said the trend in the sector 
appears to be bottoming out. 

The service-producing sector, which has been the driving force behind much of 
the U.S. economic expansion in recent years, added a paltry 5,000 jobs. That 
compared to 97,000 new jobs in May and marked the worst performance in the 
sector since 15,000 jobs were shed in August of last year. 

Nevertheless, many economists will wait to see if that weakness becomes a 
trend before becoming overly concerned about one slack month. 

A separate report on the outlook for U.S. inflation from the Economic Cycle 
Research Institute showed inflation looked set to decline in the months 
ahead. 

16:41 07-06-01

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