From: "Juche 86" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Reply-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Date: Mon, 13 Aug 2001 18:58:39 +0100
To: "Juche Insurrection" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: [Juche Insurrection] Slow Progress: Kim Jong Ils Train Trip Aims At
Leverage For Talks - FEER

NORTH KOREA

Slow Progress
Kim Jong Il's train trip aims at leverage for talks with the U.S. and stokes
hopes of a Seoul visit


By John Larkin/SEOUL
Issue cover-dated August 16, 2001


CHUGGING AT a stately pace for thousands of kilometres across Russia by
train with a 150-person entourage, Kim Jong Il looked like an eccentric
aristocrat on an odyssey back in time. In Moscow, the North Korean leader
was received with Cold War formality, and even laid a wreath at Lenin's
Tomb. His summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin echoed that era too,
both leaders settling in to launch sallies against Washington. Just like the
old days?

Not quite. Kim's diplomatic outreach to Russia is very much about the
future. He was quite willing to be paraded by Putin as a peaceable fellow.
This helps Putin by eroding Washington's basis for a missile-defence system
against states such as North Korea, and aids Kim's case for economic payoffs
in exchange for missile curbs. Kim tested the feasibility of a triangular
alliance with China and Russia against missile defence, hoping this would
throw Washington off balance. "Relations with Washington are poor, so he's
making a detour," explains Hamm Taik Young, a political science professor at
Kyungnam University's Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul. "It's a
mild version of a challenge to Washington."

The summit produced no signs that Pyongyang is prepared to give in to the
United States. It again defended its missile industry, and reiterated in a
joint declaration with Putin that U.S. forces should leave the Korean
peninsula. That shows Pyongyang still objects to Washington's call for
missile talks to also cover conventional weapons.

But this intransigence isn't surprising, given that Kim was trying to gain
leverage in any talks with the U.S. South Korean officials see hope
springing from the summit. They point out that Pyongyang committed itself to
developing a rail link from South Korea through North Korea into Russia.
That could jump-start the repair of an inter-Korean railway that stalled
recently after work stopped on the northern side.

Breathing life back into South Korean President Kim Dae Jung's policy of
engaging North Korea will require a more dramatic gesture--namely a visit to
Seoul. Though Putin didn't persuade Kim to venture south, Southern officials
hope that Kim's Russia trip might be the forerunner of one to Seoul before
the end of the year.

"Kim might be laying the groundwork for a visit to Seoul," says a senior
government official. That would boost President Kim Dae Jung's popularity.
More importantly, it would rekindle an engagement process bogged down since
the more hawkish George W. Bush administration took office.

Repairing his country's extremely dilapidated infrastructure appears of more
immediate significance to Kim Jong Il. He obtained from Putin a promise of
assistance to rebuild factories and power plants constructed decades ago
with Soviet help. A $5.5 billion debt owed to Moscow was discussed. Economic
assistance will probably be linked to its payment.

Pyongyang's other priority, modernizing its military, received little
publicity as Moscow avoided military sales that would have upset the U.S.
and South Korea. But the presence in Kim's entourage of Yon Hyung Muk, a
former prime minister and now governor of Chaggang province on the northern
border, is suggestive of Pyongyang's intentions. North Korea watchers say
Chaggang contains up to 130 underground weapons factories, like Factory 93
in Kanggye city that produces 105 millimetre cannons. "Kim Jong Il would
have needed Yon's advice," says one observer.

The identities of other officials in his entourage who hid inside the train
during the nine-day trip to Moscow give insights into Kim's other
priorities. Top economic officials Cho Chang Dok and Park Nam Ki appeared in
Moscow, as did specialists in railroads and science.

North Korea watchers in Seoul who scrutinized coverage of the summit were
curious to see that Foreign Minister Paek Nam Sun did not appear at such an
important event. In his stead, they say, was First Vice-Foreign Minister
Kang Sok Joo. Kang has a reputation as a mediator between hardliners and
reformers within the regime in Pyongyang.

Kim Jong Il will need as many bridges as he can get to win the home support
that he needs for a much more contentious official visit--this time to
Seoul. At the moment he is confident enough to leave his hungry and rigidly
controlled kingdom for a month to visit an old, but estranged, friend. The
next few months will show whether he feels safe enough to visit an old
enemy.

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 Far East Economic Review


Copyright �2001 Review Publishing Company Limited, Hong Kong. All rights
reserved.




"The Juche Idea means, in a few words, that the owner of the revolution and
construction are the masses" : Kim Il Sung
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