From: Miroslav Antic <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Reply-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Date: Wed, 15 Aug 2001 19:57:22 -0400 To: 'Sorabia' <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, 'ARCHIVE' <[email protected]>, 'Balkan News' <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, 'NATO' <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, 'News' <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, 'NSP' <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, 'SNN' <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Cc: Sin <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, 'Balkans' <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: ALEKSANDAR JOKIC: MACEDONIA PEACE [WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK] Visit our website: HTTP://WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK --------------------------------------------- ALEKSANDAR JOKIC: MACEDONIA PEACE The government of Macedonia and someone who allegedly represents the Albanian rebels signed today the Framework Agreement for Peace. I say allegedly because the rebels were not present at the negotiating table and it is not known whether they would adhere to the agreement. Anyhow, per agreement their disarmament is voluntary and it is anybody's guess what their desires will be. But what is known is that there is no genuine desire on the Albanian part in general to stay in the joint state, if they could help it. They are interested in carving out at least all of the western Macedonia and declare independence. Their efforts are the same as they have been in Kosovo. Now, Macedonian government knows full well about these intentions and it has no reason to put too much trust in agreements such as this one. No one can tell the future, but it is safe to expect that whatever the deal brings about deal, it is not even the beginning of the end to this conflict. This has been the bloodiest week yet. Macedonia first lost 10 soldiers in an ambush then a day later 8 more troops were killed by a landmine outside Skoplje. There is something wrong in the picture when members of the army of a sovereign country die at this rate and near their state capital too. What is more, it is a country that has enjoyed extensive support and has been wildly praised by the US for its role in facilitating the policies of NATO in the region, especially during the 78 day bombing campaign against Yugoslavia. Now it is Macedonia's turn. What is going on now is exactly what Macedonia signed up for when it dashed out of Yugoslavia in 1992. As a state Macedonia could exist in relative calm and security only within the larger state of Yugoslavia. As it stands it is too small and weak a state to deal with its ethnic problems. And these problems have absolutely nothing to do with rights however these rights are conceived: human rights, civil, cultural or whatever rights. What we have there are two very different groups and the key differentiating factor is not language, religion or hatred, but something that has successfully been relegated to the realm of the unmentionable. It is a testimony to the success of pro-Albanian propaganda that one of de facto root problems cannot even be mentioned. Instead, analysts focus on other factors, always with some significance but of the primary ones is left out entirely. However, it is a fact, and not a racist remark, that Macedonians and Albanians enjoy radically different birthrates. Macedonians have a very small rate like elsewhere in Europe, while Albanians are somewhere at the level of Bangladesh. Simply put, Albanian population is growing at a rate that is bound to produce the sense of entitlement and of course power to go for a land grab. I witnessed this attitude way back in 1981 when I visited the city of Tetovo, which was by no means a purely Albanian city back then. A Macedonian had put a house for sale and an Albanian neighbor was inquiring about the price. After he heard the asking price he said something to the effect: Why should we pay you anything when we will come soon to claim all these houses for free.> All this, however, would not produce anything more significant than minor skirmishes had it not been for the international factor. In particular, at fault is, to say the least, the incoherent behavior of the US who offer declarative support to the legitimate, democratic government of Macedonia while Albanian rebels get to play with the latest generation of NATO arms. All the while the US is thwarting Macedionia's efforts to obtained already paid for guns from the Ukraine. So, while the government of Macedonia hears from the world leaders the words that must be pleasing to the ear, its soldiers are being killed daily, in ever-larger numbers, by NATO arms and ammunition. In other words, while lip service is paid to the Macedonian State its burial is being already prepared. And the main reason for this is the fact that the US-lead Western world has at least evened out the playing field (or the battlefield) between the state and the rebels. Even a stronger state could not survive this. As soon as the criminal (say a bank robber) is given the same status and rights as the law enforcing officer (that attempts to arrest him) the former is at a colossal advantage as his motives and interests are hugely more intense than that of the law enforcing officer who is on the job only for the salary. It is the same in the conflicts that pit the state against rebels. The state must be given the primacy, not the rebels. The US policies on this count have not been consistent. While the US has supported the Muslim rebels in Bosnia and Kosovo the US opposed the self-determination of Serbs in Croatia and now the Macedonian government finds itself in a very similar situation of great disadvantage compare to the armed insurgents. If left alone, Macedonian forces would easily squash the rebellion, but instead they are forced to negotiate with rebels and sign detrimental agreements that will deal a deathblow to the state of Macedonia as it exists now. >From a wider historical perspective of the destruction of former Yugoslavia we see the West-to-East movement of arm conflict: Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo. Will Macedonia be the last? Or, is this a prelude to more easterly military escalations? How far east? All the way to the Caspian perhaps? We shall see. Aleksandar Jokic http://english.pravda.ru/main/2001/08/15/12579.html ------------------------------------------------- This Discussion List is the follow-up for the old stopnato @listbot.com that has been shut down _________________________________________________ KOMINFORM P.O. Box 66 00841 Helsinki Phone +358-40-7177941 Fax +358-9-7591081 http://www.kominf.pp.fi General class struggle news: [EMAIL PROTECTED] subscribe mails to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Geopolitical news: [EMAIL PROTECTED] subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] __________________________________________________
