From: Miroslav Antic <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: AMERICA WILL FALL FLAT ON ITS FACE IN AFGHANISTAN [WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK] Visit our website: HTTP://WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK --------------------------------------------- Novaya Gazeta No. 69 September 24-26, 2001 AMERICA WILL FALL FLAT ON ITS FACE IN AFGHANISTAN Will China win America's war against terrorism? Author: Yulia Latynina [from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html] THE UNITED STATES HAS REACTED TO THE TERROR ATTACKS IN NEW YORK AND WASHINGTON JUST AS OSAMA BIN LADEN WANTED. NEITHER THE US NOR BIN LADEN'S SUPPORTERS WILL WIN THE WAR. THE WINNERS ARE LIKELY TO BE CHINA, INDIA, SOUTH ASIAN AND ARAB COUNTRIES - AND RUSSIA. The American public, having watched the CNN mini-series on the destruction of the World Trade Center with rapt horror, is now demanding a sequel. Congress has allocated $40 billion to shoot the next episode. American aircraft carriers, AWACS planes and rapid response forces have been supplied for the battle scenes. The only problem is that the Pentagon scriptwriters have a co- author: Osama bin Laden. And right now everything is going according to his plans. For some reason it seems all commentators are sure that it is now the Americans' turn to lead. Actually, the destruction of the WTC towers was bait - and the prey - that is, the average American - has taken the bait, exactly as expected. Osama bin Laden is not afraid of war. He hopes for it, because war is a recruiting campaign for bin Laden's forces, paid for by American taxpayers' money. Every American missile which kills a hundred people will create a thousand new fighters. Right now, bin Laden's Al-Qaida network is made up of fringe- dwellers, who survive by extracting donations from "true believers" and drug trafficking. But a couple of thousand American tactical missiles will turn it into a Pan-Islamic government. Bin Laden did not want to upset the United States. He wanted to unite the Islamic world in a struggle against the "infidels". You can bet that the average American doesn't have the slightest idea of what they are going to be fighting. Americans are used to this. If a pipe springs a leak, you call a plumber and he will come and fix everything. If someone blows up the World Trade Center, you call the government and they will come and fix everything. The Afghans have no government. They have the tradition of blood- feud, just like any society where instability and the threat of death is too high. Such social phenomena can be eradicated in America by means of precision strikes. In Afghanistan, however, strikes against them make them multiply. It is a fundamentally different social structure. The American scriptwriters are assuming that in Afghanistan they will fight with high-tech weaponry. But there is a small weakness in high-tech weaponry: it is only effective against a high-tech civilization. Missiles costing $2 million each do a great job of hitting command points and presidential palaces; but they are an expensive way to burn the hair off a camel's hide. The United States claims it is ready for war. This is a bluff, and we can prove that. According to preliminary figures, 6,000 people died in the terrorist attacks. Left behind were at least 16,000 close relatives - wives, brothers, sons, friends. We all saw dozens of interviews along the lines of "It was so terrible!" But I personally did not see a single interview which ended, "And now I am enlisting in the army and I'm going to crush those vermin who did this." Americans do not want war. They want a happy ending. Clearly, neither of the two sides getting involved in this war will win it. Osama bin Laden will not win it - because terrorists are like worms in the gut of modern Western civilization. They use its Stingers, its civilian airliners, and even its financial institutions to make money for more terror attacks. (By the way, in this sense the only precision strike that America can actually carry out is a strike on bin Laden's bank accounts and on the drug trade.) The Americans will not win the war, because Tomahawks are no help in getting rid of intestinal parasites. The war will be won by a third party. Obviously, this is China: the future super-power of the 21st century. A country developing dynamically, without fanaticism, in contrast to bin Laden's followers; and with a 4,000-year history, in contrast to the US. If anybody does not know what the world's most commonly spoken language will be 50 years from now, here's the answer: Chinese. Another probable victor is India. And a number of smaller winners is lining up alongside the big two, principally from South Asia or the Arab world, right up to Syria or Iran, if they are able to keep on the sidelines of the fighting which is being planned. Among these countries - from China to Iran - there are few similarities, but there is one common factor. They are all importers of Russian arms and potential strategic allies of Russia. And now, as America is preparing to fall flat on its face in Afghanistan, Russia has a unique opportunity: to stand aside from the brawling, to shape and provide the technological leadership for an alliance of cultures to which neither of the warring sides is close. (Translated by Alexander Mazzucchelli) ******* _________________________________________________ KOMINFORM P.O. 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