From: Rick Rozoff <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: US Strikes Could Provoke Upheavals In Central Asia [WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK] Visit our website: HTTP://WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK --------------------------------------------- Russian Observer October 3, 2001 "In general, the United Nations is being shoved to the side and NATO is taking the initiative into its own hands." Interview with senior researcher at the Institute of World Economics and International Relations, Dina Malysheva US strikes on Afghanistan might provoke upheavals in Central Asian states Viktor Sokolov 02.04.2001, 18:04 Full story: "CIS Central Asian fissures become increasingly clear as border activity intensifies" [printable version] Interview with senior researcher at the Institute of World Economics and International Relations, Dina Malysheva Q: What do you think of the situation with the refugees in regions of the CIS bordering Afghanistan? A: There will inevitably be refugees. In fact they are already there. That problem has not yet been solved since the time of the Soviet Union's big war in Afghanistan. That problem has been standing there all these years since then. Instability exists in the Central Asian states bordering Afghanistan even now. First of all, this concerns Tajikistan. Even though a peace agreement was signed and some of the representatives of the opposition were included in the government, there still are quite a number of armed groups that have ties with the Taliban and are not controlled by the government. They pose a constant threat to the peace process in Tajikistan and complicate that country's relations with neighboring states. It is no secret that tense relations exist between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan that mutually accuse each other of supporting opposition forces. However, all the roots of that instability lie in precisely the Afghan events stemming from that big war and the period that followed the pullout of the Soviet forces from Afghanistan. Q: Did these refugees live in the north of Afghanistan in the territories controlled by the Northern Alliance? A: Exactly. Besides that, there is the notorious Uzbek, Djuma Namangani who is held responsible for organizing terrorist attacks in Uzbekistan. However, I would not say there is some single center coordinating the actions of all these illegal armed gangs. I do not think that there is such a single center and that all these actions are connected with the Taliban. Although, of course, many of the armed extremists got their training at special camps in territories controlled by the Taliban. Besides that, if we are talking about the Central Asian states then it's difficult to imagine that the flow of refugees or the instability can be localized within the framework of a single state or one region. The states are much too dependent on each other and are subject to the domino effect. Q: Do you think that the situation in Central Asia is no less explosive than in Pakistan? A: In fact the situation in the former Soviet Central Asian republics is, in general, instable, and everything there is being held together by authoritarian regimes. In any case, the regime in Uzbekistan is authoritarian. But on the other hand, if there were not such a regime there, it would be impossible to attain stability. And if to this we add a civil war within the framework of each Central Asian state that would be a catastrophe for the region. Q: Can the refugees also come to Russia? A: From the point of view of our own interests, that is quite a serious threat. Of course, as experience shows, refugees are filtrated and they do not manage to reach Moscow, but they will settle in the southern regions, in Astrakhan, for instance. Q: Is Moscow ready for that? A: Experience indicates that we react to events that have already taken place. Perhaps at top level this has been discussed but I don't think any real practical steps have been taken to avert such a negative development of events. Q: As far as I know, Russia is not expecting refugees since it is believed that they will go to Iran and Pakistan. Is that really the case? A: Of course, they can head for Iran and Pakistan. But first of all, Pakistan does not want to accept them and is taking measures to contain them. Moreover, Pakistan solves this problem in a very simple way: it puts up some military barriers and that's all. For Pakistan too this is a very volatile situation, bearing in mind the large number of Pathans in their territory. In Soviet times, when the USSR was a "closed" state, the fear of spreading Islamic ideas and averting the influence of Islamic extremism in the Central Asian republics was also one of the reasons for sending Soviet troops into Afghanistan. That threat has not disappeared to this day, but already there is no Soviet Union - there is no monolithic force that could check that threat. Q: Do you think that Russia and the USA could not work together to mould such a force? A: I think that America and Russia pursue different interests. Moreover, America lies over the Atlantic - and where are we? We must also bear in mind that Russia, according to various estimates, has almost 20 million Muslims that could take to the streets to protest against American air strikes. That's a hypothetical variant that will most likely not materialize. But nonetheless, Russia must take that factor into consideration as well. What is important here (concerning a joint force by Russia and America) is to come to terms. So far, I do not see on what terms Russia could closely cooperate with the USA. Moscow has already spoken out in favor of a retribution act, but again with reservations. We ourselves will have to cope with the problems on our southern borders. I do not think that the USA could offer efficient help. In the given situation there is something that I do not like about the reassessment of international relations that were formed with such difficulty. In general, the United Nations is being shoved to the side and NATO is taking the initiative into its own hands. Terrorism today is interpreted or defined in very different ways and this offers a very convenient way for making short work of unwelcome opponents, adversaries. _________________________________________________ KOMINFORM P.O. Box 66 00841 Helsinki Phone +358-40-7177941 Fax +358-9-7591081 http://www.kominf.pp.fi General class struggle news: [EMAIL PROTECTED] subscribe mails to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Geopolitical news: [EMAIL PROTECTED] subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] __________________________________________________
