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Date: Fri, 19 Oct 2001 12:50:51 PDT
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [R-G] The coming Arab crash - The Guardian
The Guardian Thursday October 18, 2001
The coming Arab crash
If the Saudi and other pro-western regimes are lined up against Bin
Laden, they will fall
By Said Aburish
The west's most important friends in the Arab Middle East - Fahd of Saudi
Arabia, Abdullah of Jordan, Mubarak of Egypt and the PLO's Yasser Arafat -
are probably the world's most vulnerable political quartet. It is likely
that endemic problems and the Islamic fundamentalist tide gripping their
countries will bring an end to their regimes within the next five years.
Though Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority have many
problems in common, the likelihood is that Saudi Arabia will be the Middle
East's next trouble spot among the pro-western countries. This is because
King Fahd, 79, is ailing and his death is likely to produce several
contenders for the kingship at a time of mounting economic problems and
growing Islamic opposition.
For now, all might seem outwardly quiet in Saudi Arabia. But a closer look
reveals serious problems. Since Fahd bin Abdel Aziz, fifth king of modern
Saudi Arabia, succeeded to the throne in 1982, the economy has shrunk
drastically. Even by historical standards corruption is completely out of
control. With oil income down to $40bn, most of the country's people are
suffering. In 1993, annual per capita income was $5,000, barely one third of
what it was in the early 1980s. By some estimates, it has since fallen still
further. And politically, all this has aided Islamic fundamentalism, which
has grown at an alarming rate because it is the only popular movement which
the government cannot outlaw. Widespread anti-western feeling means there is
a danger of internal unrest and more violence against western interests.
Corruption and the suffering of the average Saudi provide a fertile
background for the emergence of a popular Islamic opposition and the coming
of age of a generation of educated Saudis who reject the absolute ways of
the monarchy. Fahd and his family are identified with the west. The misdeeds
of the royals, including allowing the stationing of American forces on holy
Muslim soil, is doing the west more harm than good. These elements combined
are driving more and more Saudis to join militant Islamic movements and
reducing the monarchy's already small popular base.
A fight over the succession could produce an alliance between Muslim
fundamentalists and the army against the royals - or some dissident royals
forging an alliance with the army or security forces against their
relations. This is a difficult time for the House of Saud to join the west
against fellow Muslims: there is no direct threat to Saudi Arabia and Bin
Laden's criminal actions appeal to many Muslims.
In Jordan, the situation is no better. Young and untried King Abdullah is in
serious trouble. More than two thirds of his country's population is
Palestinian and sympathise with any anti-American action because of
America's support for Israel. King Abdullah's open support for action
against Bin Laden and his militant supporters has done nothing but diminish
his popularity. At present the opposition to Abdullah is unorganised and no
groups are openly asking for his overthrow. But there is a strong and vocal
Islamic fundamentalist opposition, which at one point controlled a quarter
of the seats in the Jordanian parliament. As in Saudi Arabia, there are very
few who favour supporting the west against fellow Muslims. Even those who do
blame Abdullah for maintaining the peace treaty with Israel and attempting
to please the west at the expense of local feeling.
Jordan's troubles have a regional component in them. Syria, traditionally
anti-west, has considerable influence with the Jordanians. Jordanians
approve of Syria's hard line against Israel and are full of admiration for
the semi-socialist politics of their northern neighbour. Moreover, Saddam
Hussein is extremely popular in Jordan. Seen as a modern day Saladin who
stood up to the west, his popularity is widespread.
Overall, the anti-western feeling of the Jordanian people, be they secular
or Islamist, is extremely strong. Any Jordanian help for the west, even if
strictly diplomatic, is likely to backfire and exacerbate King Abdullah's
chronic problems. Yet, Jordan's dependence upon America's economic aid has
already forced its government to adopt this unpopular stance.
In Egypt, economic conditions are much worse than in Saudi Arabia and
Jordan. The damage to tourism brought about by the September 11 disaster is
likely to be severe. Tourism is the country's major industry and top foreign
currency earner. Moreover, lower oil tanker traffic through the Suez canal
will make the situation worse. This comes at a time when the fever of
opposition to President Mubarak is catching.
Until recently, opposition to Mubarak's army-backed regime was confined to
Islamic fundamentalism. This is no longer the case. The press reacted
angrily to laws aimed at restricting its freedom. The bourgeoisie accused
Mubarak of spending too much on foreign and regional affairs and not enough
on Egypt's internal problems. Stories about corruption and nepotism abound.
The growing impatience with Israel and the US has meant Mubarak's popularity
is at an all time low. Egypt's economic decline - interrupted by the
cancellation of billions of dollars of debt during the Gulf war in return
for an anti-Saddam stand - has resurfaced as the country's major problem.
Egypt owes more than $30bn, its population is increasing by more than a
million a year and money sent back from workers in oil-producing countries
is sharply reduced as countries need fewer guest workers. And Egypt cannot
expect a debt-cancellation bonus this time.
Meanwhile the calm surface concealing Islamist activity is deceptive -
infiltration of the army is at an all time high. Because Mubarak has failed
to create a popular base for his government, there are no political
movements to oppose the Islamists. Joining the west in an alliance against
fellow Muslims is so unacceptable to Egyptians that it could well lead to
upheaval and Mubarak's eventual departure.
Arafat, the west's newest friend, confronts the same political and economic
problems as Fahd, Abdullah and Mubarak. His Islamic opposition is armed and
willing to wage a guerrilla war against both him and Israel. He has failed
to create a political entity acceptable to his people. Because the Oslo
peace accord and the subsidiary agreements which followed it have failed to
satisfy Palestinian aspirations, the people of the occupied territories are
turning to Hamas, Islamic Jihad and smaller Islamic groups. Totally opposed
to the west and disparaging of Arafat's subservient behaviour, these groups
have made no secret of their tacit approval of Bin Laden's actions.
With nothing to show after years of depending on the US to play honest
broker, Arafat has never been this unpopular and his use of the secret
police has already inflamed the Palestinians. Along with press censorship,
it has eroded his credentials. He no longer speaks for the Palestinians and
the Islamists are likely to add to his problems.
It is difficult to see what could save Arafat. The standard of living among
Palestinians is at an all time low. Unemployment is over 30% and higher
among university graduates. Arafat's inner circle has been tainted with
corruption and nepotism. Given that the Sharon government is unlikely to be
generous enough to save Arafat, the prospects for a Palestinian civil war
are growing by the day. The unthinkable may come to pass, an Arafat-Israel
alliance against Hamas and other Palestinian Islamic groups.
The threats to Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and Arafat are real. What makes
the present situation worse than ever before is America's determination to
involve Arab leaders in an alliance against fellow Muslims. The popularity
of the pro-west leaders is so thin that any material move to hitch their
fate to the anti-Bin Laden coalition will create an irreversible march
towards disaster.
Said K Aburish is the author of The Rise, Corruption and Coming Fall of the
House of Saud (Bloomsbury)
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