From: Miroslav Antic <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>

Subject: 'Regional rivalries activated' in Kashmir
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'Regional rivalries activated' in Kashmir

By Rahul Bedi in New Delhi

Nuclear rivals India and Pakistan have significantly raised tension in
the region, already wracked by the Afghan conflict, by moving additional
troops into the disputed border in northern Jammu and Kashmir state and
gravely threatening the normally fragile peace between the neighbours.

The heightened strain between the South Asian adversaries - who continue
to daily trade artillery and small arms fire across the volatile Kashmir
frontier in what the Indian Army calls a 'no-war-no-peace' situation -
comes at a crucial, albeit highly avoidable, juncture in the US-led
alliance's war against the Taliban and Al-Qaeda terrorist network in
Afghanistan. 

"Washington desperately needs Pakistan and India to focus their
attention exclusively on aiding the US in its campaign against
Afghanistan. It does not want their regional rivalries activated at this
particular moment," said a senior Indian security officer.

US Secretary of State Colin Powell visited India and Pakistan last month
in an attempt to reduce tension between them over Kashmir, which is
claimed by both countries. The regional rivals have fought two of their
three wars since independence in 1947 over Kashmir. They also fought an
11-week long border war in Indian-administered Kashmir in 1999 in which
over 1200 soldiers died. That conflict, which threatened to escalate
between the nuclear-capable countries, was brought to a close by
Washington persuading Pakistan to withdraw its troops from India's
Kargil region. 

India also accuses Pakistan of sponsoring the disputed state's
12-year-old civil war, which has claimed over 35,000 lives. Pakistan
denies the claim, but has come under pressure for sponsoring Kashmiri
terrorist groups that were funded by Bin Laden's Al Q'aeda ('The Base')
global terrorism syndicate.

US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is also scheduled to visit Delhi
and Islamabad next week on a mission similar to Powell's. Meanwhile, US
B-52 bombers are being employed to hasten a collapse of the Taliban
front lines in northern Afghanistan before the onset of the harsh Afghan
winter. 

On 1 November India accused Pakistan of adopting an 'offensive' posture
along the line of control (LoC) that divides Kashmir between the rivals
by mobilising 35,000 troops and armoured columns that it claims could be
easily converted into an offensive force. Defence officials in Delhi say
Islamabad has moved two infantry divisions and an armoured brigade into
the Akhnoor sector, 35km from the Jammu border. Another armoured
division and two independent armoured brigades have reportedly been
shifted to the Bhawalpur area in northern Pakistan, some 25km from the
border opposite Ganganagar in western India. An Indian or Pakistani
armoured brigade has around 90-100 main battle tanks and an accompanying
complement of around 45-50 infantry combat vehicles.

Pakistan's mobilisation comes a fortnight after it accused India of
amassing troops along the LoC and a day after a senior Indian Army
commander warned Islamabad that Delhi reserved the right to take
military action against it and the terrorist groups it infiltrated into
war-torn Kashmir. 

"If the Pakistan Army continues to carry out hostile acts, to include
sabotage, infiltration, raids or intrusions ... we reserve the right to
take military action against the Pakistani military as deemed
appropriate " said Gen Nanavatty, who heads India's Northern Command,
based in Kashmir. 

The "blatant aggression" being witnessed by Pakistan in Kashmir was "not
dissimilar" to that in 1965 when India fought the second of its three
wars with Pakistan, stated the normally reserved Gen Nanavatty. "The
nuclearisation of the sub-continent may have altered the situation, but
space still exists for limited conventional war," Gen Nanavatty said in
Jammu earlier this week. Over the past year Northern Command has created
adequate reserves in Kashmir for a possible strike across the border
through "clever accounting and manipulation" of military manpower
deployed on counter-insurgency operations, according to Indian military
sources. 

Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee has said that India could
respond appropriately to hostile actions by Pakistan. India's patience
and love of peace was misread as weakness, he said, telling a public
rally: "Let there be no such dissolution. India is today strong, united,
progressive and ready to face any challenge."

In response, Pakistan warned India against precipitating matters. Its
military spokesman, Major General Rashid Qureshi, told reporters in
Islamabad that Pakistan would take "bare minimum" steps to defend
itself. "If the Indians think they can take advantage of the situation
[Pakistan's preoccupation with Afghanistan], they are mistaken," Gen
Qureshi added. 
http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/jdw/jdw011102_
2_n.shtml

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