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Subject: Who will control Kabul - Moscow or Washington?

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Who will control Kabul - Moscow or Washington?

The Americans and Pakistanis have been caught
off-guard by the swift developments on the warfront inside Afghanistan
and the easy victory of Northern Alliance, says Zafar Agha
    
New Delhi, November 13

Well, Kabul has fallen without much of resistance. Taliban, in fact, have
abandoned the Afghan capital without any fight, leaving it wide open for its
opponent, Northern Alliance, to enter the city that Mullah Omar controlled
for abut six years. "We entered Kabul a little after 7 in the morning and
there were no Taliban around to resist', John Simpson of the BBC reported
from the fallen city, that was in a jubilant mood celebrating the end of a
repressive regime.

Ironically, Americans, and their ally Pakistan, did not seem too pleased
with 
the fall of Kabul. There was no word from United States President George W
Bush almost 12 hours after the collapse of Kabul, that signalled the
beginning of the end of Taliban inside Afghanistan.

No other senior American official, neither Secretary of State Collin Powell
nor Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld reacted to the fall of Kabul for
hours. 
Only junior level Pentagon officials were commenting that "the situation was
fluid" while President Bush was huddled in a meeting with Russian President
Vladimir Putin inside the White House. Pakistan officials were trying to
impress upon Northern Alliance to wait at the Kabul gates till a UN-led
arrangement was in place to govern Kabul.

It was quite evident from both American and Pakistani official behaviour
that 
the news of Northern Alliance capturing Kabul that they were not too happy
with the development. It seems Russians managed a coup, keeping Americans in
the dark while quietly nudging Northern alliance with fresh supplies of
armoured vehicles and munitions in the last one week, which enabled the
Northern Alliance to capture Kabul.

India too seems to have played ball with Moscow, encouraging Northern
Alliance to oust Taliban from Kabul. Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpyee
during his trip to Moscow last week seemed to have impressed upon Putin to
go 
ahead and capture major parts of Afghanistan, so that it will help Russia
and 
India to play a key role in post-Taliban Afghanistan.

The question is: who will now control Kabul? A nervous Pakistan foreign
office spokesman first said: "Northern Alliance forces must not occupy
Kabul." A little later the tone changed, and Islamabad began to say Kabul be
placed under U N control to keep order in a "demilitarised city". Americans
were initially maintaining stoic silence. Later junior officials began to
suggest that UN should take control of Kabul. Americans too did not want
Northern Alliance to completely take charge of Kabul, and thus emerge a key
player in the post-Taliban situation.

Clearly, a quiet tussle to control post-Taliban Kabul between Americans and
the Pakistanis on one side, and the Russians and Indians on the other, has
begun. Americans have all along been harping that post-Taliban Afghanistan
should remain under an American and Pakistani backed set-up. They were
pushing for ousted King Zahir Shah to head a UN-supervised arrangement in
which Pashtoons (the Afghan tribe close to Pakistan) and Turkey (the only
Muslim NATO member country) were supposed to play a key role while Northern
Alliance was kept on the margins.

Sensing the fall of Kabul., Powell suggested that an interim arrangement of
a 
peacekeeping force led by soldiers from Muslim nations like Turkey,
Bangladesh and Indonesia should control the Afghan capital. Naturally,
Powell 
was trying to keep the Russian-backed Northern alliance out of Kabul.

But Russians pulled a fast one on the nervous Americans, who became restless
with the approaching holy month of Ramadan, and some of the Muslim
countries, 
especially Saudi Arabia, pressing the US to end military operations before
that. So the swift moves by Northern Alliance in the last few days, first
with the capture of Mazar, then other small towns like Pul-e-Khumri,
Taloqan, 
Maimana, Daste Qila and, now, Kabul caught both Washington and Islamabad off
guard. Americans still have no post-Taliban alternative ready. Northern
Alliance is now sitting pretty inside Kabul. It is now in a bargaining
position in any post-Taliban alternative arrangement to emerge in
Afghanistan. The Russian-Indian-Iranian axis will now bargain with
Americans, 
and they will try to minimize Pakistani influence in the post-Taliban
Afghanistan.

The dramatic and unexpected collapse of Taliban, and the quick march of
Northern Alliance into Kabul, have upset the American game plan. The
Russians 
and the Indians, wiho had been backing Northern Alliance for years are back
in the game. Both President Bush and General Musharraf must be worried about
the swift changes in Afghanistan. So, no one can still say who will
eventually control Kabul. The US will try to quietly pressurize Russia to
rein in Northern Alliance.

India should not let this opportunity slip out of its hands. It should
continue to nudge Russia to continue to support Northern Alliance, both
militarily and financially. Post-Taliban Afghanistan should no more be
allowed to be dominated by Pakistan. India and Russia should not let
Americans and Pakistanis play their game in Afghanistan, which was one of
the 
key sources of exporting terrorists into Kashmir.
    
 <A 
HREF="http://www.tehelka.com/channels/currentaffairs/2001/nov/13/ca111301wha
t.htm">Click here: tehelka.com - Who will control Kabul - Moscow or
Washington?</A> 


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