From: Stasi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>

Subject: US: Up To 50 States Face Military Action - Guardian

HTTP://WWW.STOPNATO.ORG.UK
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Other countries could face US military action

Up to 50 states are on blacklist, says Cheney
http://www.guardian.co.uk/waronterror/story/0,1361,596403,00.html
Ewen MacAskill, diplomatic editor
Saturday November 17, 2001
The Guardian 

The US vice-president, Dick Cheney, warned yesterday that after the
Afghanistan campaign is over, America could use military action in a second
wave of attacks directed against states which harbour terrorists.
Mr Cheney said that up to 50 states could be targeted for a range of action,
from financial and diplomatic to military, on the grounds that they had
al-Qaida networks operating there.

Somalia, the east African country which is a haven for al-Qaida supporters,
would be high on any US list of targets, alongside Iraq.

Planners in Washington and London are considering the next steps. The ease
with which Kabul has fallen has encouraged hawks within the US
administration who are keen to extend military action, particularly against
Iraq. 

A Foreign Office source said: "Thinking is going on about a second phase but
no decision has been taken yet and we would never speculate on it."

The British view is that direct military action against another state is
unlikely and that action is more likely to be in partnership with other
states against internal enemies.

Mr Cheney, in a rare public foray, said in an interview for the BBC's Pashtu
service yesterday morning: "There are a great many places round the world
where there are cells of the al-Qaida organisation. Maybe as many as 40 or
50. 

"We're working with the services of other countries and other governments to
try to wrap those organisations up."

This threat of military action serves a useful purpose for Washington,
making governments more amenable to action against terrorism, either inside
or outside their own boundaries.

The US defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, asked the Pentagon to come up
with post-Afghanistan options in which they were to think the unthinkable.
The resulting general command papers were reported to have been dismissed by
Mr Rumsfeld for not being radical enough.

As yet, no specific military target outside Afghanistan has been agreed.
That would change overnight if Osama bin Laden were to turn up in a country
with close ties to al-Qaida, such as Somalia.

Somalia
Somalia would be an easy target as it is a "failed" state that is even more
run-down than Afghanistan.

Dominic Simpson, an analyst with the Kroll Middle East Monitor, said he
thought the next phase of the military campaign might involve Somalia. "The
sense of violation would be less than if the US was moving against a
government that was functioning. It could be the next base for Bin Laden if
he is not caught in the meantime."

Action in Somalia would offer an opportunity to settle an old score: 18 US
soldiers were brutally killed there in 1993 and since then the US has been
wary of committing ground troops anywhere.

Neighbouring African countries claim al-Qaida has been active in Somalia
since 1993. They say it was the base for bombings of US embassies in Kenya
and Tanzania five years later and still has camps there.

If Bin Laden was to escape from Afghanistan, Somalia is one of the few
countries left that might provide him succour, though it is a harder place
to hide in. 

German forces have served in Somalia before and the Frankfurter Allgemeine
Zeitung recently reported a plan for a joint US-German operation in which
German troops would take Berbera, with the US taking the harbour and
airport. 

The US-German force could operate in alliance with one of the Somali
factions or with the neighbouring Ethiopia.

The main Somali group identified by Washington as close to al-Qaida is
al-Itihaad al-Islamiya (Islamic Unity), which is trying to take over a
north-eastern region.

Yemen
Yemen is home to several militant groups linked to al-Qaida. The remit of
the government does not extend into tribal areas where such groups have
their camps. 

The danger was reinforced last year when al-Qaida operatives successfully
launched an attack on the USS Cole from a dinghy. The Yemeni president, Ali
Abdullah Saleh, has been invited to the White House this month, suggesting
the US wants to work in conjunction with the existing government.

Iraq
Mr Rumsfeld has described as significant meetings in Prague between Mohammed
Atta, a suspected leader of the September 11 hijackers, and an Iraqi
intelligence official. However, a firm connection between al-Qaida and Iraq
has proved elusive. Indeed, Bin Laden's people have fewer footholds in Iraq
than they do in Britain.

However, Saddam Hussein, is regarded by Washington as one of the most
dangerous leaders in the world, with potential access to weapons of mass
destruction, and that is increasingly being regarded as sufficient
justification for war. For many in the US administration, it is unfinished
business. 

Britain, though cooperating with the US in bombing Iraq in southern and
northern no-fly zones in the past decade, is opposed to extending the war to
Iraq because of the lack of a firm link.

The test of US intentions could come next month when the UN security council
discusses sanctions against Iraq. Saddam's refusal to allow in UN weapons
inspectors could turn out to be a casus belli.

Asia
Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia, which all have problems with
al-Qaida groups within their borders and with Muslim militants in general,
have agreed to combined operations.

The US, which has a good relationship with these countries, yesterday
expressed a desire to participate in any such operations. It is especially
close to the Philippines, and has offered it a generous military package,
with an emphasis on counter-terrorism.

Paul Wolfowitz, the US deputy defence secretary, recently told the Hong
Kong-based Far Eastern Economic Review that he saw a clear need to confront
al-Qaida in Indonesia: "Going after al- Qaida in Indonesia is not something
that should wait until after al-Qaida has been uprooted from Afghanistan."


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