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Subject: [R-G] Sharon's fatal mistake - G&M

The Globe and Mail                 Tuesday, December 18, 2001

Sharon's fatal mistake

     By Ian Urbina

With the sudden upswing in bloodshed, it is hard not to wonder where the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict is headed. First, forget about Yasser Arafat,
his future is largely irrelevant. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon knows
this. Instead, check the current Israeli bombing list. It offers the most
accurate prediction of the direction of this crisis.

The list is noteworthy for its utter banality: sewage plants, power
facilities, hospitals, radio towers. Even the Palestinian Central Bureau of
Statistics had its computers ransacked, its files destroyed. Why? Surely
these librarians are not militants and data are not suddenly an instrument
of terrorism. With bombs blowing up on every corner, why worry about a
warehouse of spreadsheets?

Israeli forces also bulldozed the runways of the Palestinian airport, out of
which there had been virtually no traffic in months. Last month, a number of
Palestinian orchards were leveled and irrigation systems were uprooted. In
Gaza, there are only two main roads for Palestinian use. Both have been
bombed or bulldozed.

Ultimately, it is not whether Mr. Arafat is knocked off that matters. As Mr.
Sharon runs out of methods for squelching the uprising, he is shifting from
repressing Palestinian civil society to dismembering it. This is a dreadful
mistake.

Since the start of the uprising, the closure of the territories exerted the
strongest strangleholds. Israeli checkpoints cut off all circulation. Those
who had worked in Israel were denied employment, those who imported goods
did without. Groceries rotted at market in one part of the territories while
more than one-third of Palestinians went hungry for lack of access. It got
worse when septic trucks were forbidden clearance, leaving sewage tanks to
overflow in the streets. But as bad as that was, it has become worse now as
these same markets and storage tanks are no longer being blocked but
destroyed.

It is not unreasonable that Israelis are outraged over the loss of innocent
lives at the hands of suicide bombers and guerrillas. But Mr. Sharon may
want to take heed before tearing apart the fabric of Palestinian civil
society. Stateless Palestinians with nothing left to lose are the last thing
he should hope for.

There is an inverse relationship between the Palestinian Authority and the
militant Islamic movement Hamas. Undermining the institutions of one,
increases that of the other. Beneath the ever-fraying social safety net
provided by the Palestinian Authority, is a stronger and tighter one offered
by Hamas to which more Palestinians are turning. It is Hamas that oversees
many of the Islamic charities doling out rice, sugar and lentils to 30,000
people each month. It is Hamas that runs the free sports teams, summer camps
and kindergartens for the children of so many parents out of work. Indeed,
Hamas is also the purveyor of suicide bombers. Yet, more Palestinians view
such attacks as a military tactic of last resort rather than as a barbaric
targeting of innocent civilians.

Only a year ago, negotiators were discussing the direction of Palestinian
"state-building." Administrators debated over what image would go on the
national postage stamp. There are now almost no Palestinian post offices in
operation. Only a month ago, President George W. Bush publicly reaffirmed
the right of Palestinian nationhood. He has since given Israel the nod to
strike however it sees fit.

As the material preconditions for Palestinian statehood disappear, so, too,
will any prospects for peace. If Mr. Sharon wants to protect Israeli
security he needs to take Israeli settlers -- not Palestinian infrastructure
-- out of the occupied territories.  Ian Urbina is a research scholar at the
Middle East Research and Information Project, an independent foreign-policy
think tank in Washington.


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