From: "Stasi" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: [Peoples War] Nepal: Nepal Rebel War Heating Up - Stratfor Nepal Rebel War Heating Up ==================== 2330 GMT, 011228 Summary As tensions between India and Pakistan simmer, another crisis is brewing on India's northern border. The six-year-old Maoist uprising in Nepal is rapidly heating up, and is likely to expand in both scope and intensity. Analysis Two Mi-17 attack helicopters from Kazakhstan were delivered to the Nepalese military Dec. 28, according to Kathmandu-based Kantipur Online. The helicopters are a significant addition to Nepalese government forces deployed against a growing Maoist insurgency. A month of intense fighting has killed hundreds in Nepal. The government claims to have made great strides against the Maoist rebels, but it appears that the war is far from over. Harsher military action and reduced social spending by the government, combined with advanced arms purchases by the rebels, will increase the intensity of the fighting. A heightened shooting war in Nepal could lend an added layer of tension to South Asia, where relations between India and Pakistan have already plummeted. And cross-border ties between the Maoists and groups in India, China and Myanmar could complicate relations among these countries. After six years of uprising, Maoist groups in Nepal control a third of the country. The rebels appear to have begun as an indigenous opposition movement with no significant outside sponsor such as China or Pakistan. However, reports have emerged suggesting that the rebels have established links with militant groups such as the People's War Group in India, the Tamil Tigers of Sri Lanka and the United Wa State Army of Myanmar. An army crackdown over the past month has generated headlines about government victories, including a Dec. 24 announcement that approximately 6,500 Maoist rebels have surrendered since November. However, a number of factors indicate that the war is not going nearly as well as Kathmandu claims. First, the government appears to be grossly inflating its numbers. The Informal Sector Service Center, one of Nepal's largest non-governmental organizations, reported that around 3,300 suspected Maoist sympathizers have surrendered -- about half the government's figure. It is highly likely that the Nepalese government is similarly inflating other casualty figures. Second, large-scale surrenders and combat losses must be viewed in a larger context. More than 6 million males between the ages of 15-49 live in Nepal, according to the CIA World Factbook, and 90 percent of those are in rural areas. Although not all rural dwellers are Maoist sympathizers, their status in a country with one of the lowest standards of living in the world makes them prime candidates to support the rebel cause. In fact, higher military spending by the government is forcing cuts in other budget areas, according to the Kathmandu Post. Hardest hit are rural development programs such as infrastructure, health, and education -- which are set to lose between 25 and 30 percent of their budgets. Worsening living conditions will only increase support of the rebels. While the 50,000-man Nepalese army outnumbers the estimated 2,000 hardcore Maoist fighters, most of these soldiers are not deployed in the field. The South Asia Analysis Group estimates that the army can only deploy about two brigades -- numbering around 6,000-10,000 soldiers -- against the Maoists. The rest of the troops are committed to U.N. operations, administrative duties and the guarding of Nepal's population centers. Two brigades are not enough to conduct effective nationwide counter-insurgency operations over rugged, mountainous terrain. The army should make good use of its new helicopters, which are well suited for use as gunships against guerrilla units. But the Maoists may be able to counter the threat from the air. Recent reports have suggested that the Maoists have begun purchasing arms from the Myanmar-based United Wa State Army, a drug-trafficking ethnic group with ties to the Myanmar government. Reported purchases have only included small arms, but Jane's Defense Weekly said earlier this year that the Wa Army acquired man-portable surface-to-air missiles from Chinese military sources. The HN-5N missiles (derived from the Russian SA-7) are capable of knocking low-flying helicopters from the sky. There have been no reports that the Maoists have yet acquired these weapons. But the rebels may be gearing up for larger arms purchases, with financing coming from increased drug trafficking. Indian police have seized large quantities of hashish over the past year, which they believe originated in Maoist-controlled areas of Nepal, according to the France-based Center for Geopolitical Drug Studies. The purchase of higher-quality weapons would be a shift for the rebels, which have up to now relied on homemade explosives and whatever weapons they could capture from police and government troops. Rebel Links Could Heighten India-China Tensions ================================== There are signs that Nepal's Maoist insurgents are shifting tactics and looking beyond the country's borders for arms. A recently intercepted shipment of several hundred assault rifles, most coming from China, was likely bound for Nepal. The growing cooperation among South Asia's rebels, which is beginning to encompass groups with different ideologies, could link disparate regional insurgencies and draw rivals India and China into broader conflicts. Analysis Nepal's Maoist insurgents are looking abroad for arms supplies, according to regional intelligence officials cited in the Far Eastern Economic Review. The report said police in Myanmar intercepted a shipment of 200 to 400 assault rifles Nov. 2 in the northwestern part of that country near the Indian border. Intelligence officials told FEER that the weapons, most of which came from China, were likely bound for Nepal, where Maoists recently launched a new armed campaign against the government. _________________________________________________ KOMINFORM P.O. Box 66 00841 Helsinki Phone +358-40-7177941 Fax +358-9-7591081 http://www.kominf.pp.fi General class struggle news: [EMAIL PROTECTED] subscribe mails to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Geopolitical news: [EMAIL PROTECTED] subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] __________________________________________________
