From: Stasi <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>

Subject: Venezuala: In The Firing Line - Frontline Magazine
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FRONTLINE MAGAZINE

The Venezuelan plot
==============
The opposition parties in Venezuela, encouraged by the United States, are
making moves to unseat President Hugo Chavez, whose policies are seen as
posing a threat to U.S. hegemony.

JOHN CHERIAN

PRESIDENT Hugo Chavez of Venezuela is counted among the most charismatic of
world leaders today. Chavez, a former army paratrooper, who has faced the
country's electorate twice in two years and won with thumping majorities,
now faces a challenge from right-wing groups and a few of his erstwhile
political allies. They are subtly encouraged by the conservative officials
in charge of the United States administration's Latin America desk.

Soon after George Bush took office as President, the U.S. Administration put
Venezuela in the firing line. Chavez, unlike many other Latin American
leaders, had refused to kow-tow to Washington on major international issues.
Statements by senior administration officials focussed on the danger posed
to U.S. interests in the region by the policies of the Venezuelan leader.

Chavez is an ardent admirer of Cuban leader Fidel Castro though he has
emphasised that he is not a Marxist. One of the first countries he visited
after assuming office in 1998 was Cuba. Both countries today have strong
diplomatic and political ties. Chavez dreams of once again integrating Latin
American countries into one confederal entity as envisaged by the 19th
century Latin American icon Simon Bolivar. Bolivar, who hailed from
Venezuela, had briefly united Latin America.

Chavez is seen by the U.S. right wing as a threat to U.S. hegemony in the
American continent. Chavez, while pursuing an independent foreign policy,
has been careful in his dealings with the U.S. Besides, the two countries
need each other. Venezuela has the sixth largest oil reserves in the world
and the U.S. is its biggest customer; around 40 per cent of the U.S.' annual
oil imports are from Venezuela. But this has not prevented Venezuela from
selling oil to Cuba despite the continuing U.S. blockade of the island
nation. In fact, since assuming office, Chavez has expanded the country's
oil export, doubling its value between 1998 and 2000.

Chavez has also been playing an activist role in international politics.
After Venezuela took over the presidency of the Organisation of Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC) last year, he embarked on a vigorous diplomatic
tour of member-countries of the organisation to drum up support for a united
stance on stable oil prices. His visit to Iraq, the first by a head of state
to the beleaguered country in a long time, symbolically broke the
U.S.-imposed travel embargo on Iraq. And since then many high-level
delegations, including one from India, visited Iraq, much to the annoyance
of Washington.

Chavez was successful in stabilising the price and output of oil. But in the
last few months, international oil prices plummeted for a variety of
reasons, raising alarm in Venezuela and other countries that depend largely
on oil revenues. Last month Chavez embarked on yet another whirlwind tour of
oil-producing countries.

Chavez visited both OPEC and non-OPEC countries to convince them of the
urgent need to curtail oil production so as to stabilise price. The trip
seems to be paying dividends, as Russia, a significant holdout, has
indicated that it will cut production and help boost the price of oil in the
international market. Chavez's activism has not been appreciated by
Washington. In recent months, domestic oil prices in the U.S. has dipped
below one dollar a gallon after many years.

Washington views Chavez as someone who poses a challenge to the established
order in the region. Venezuela takes a strong interest in groupings such as
the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) and Chavez has emphasised the need to
establish a multi-polar world in order to check U.S. hegemonism. He is not
afraid of taking a principled stance on matters in which the U.S. has
important stakes. For instance, he has been critical of the U.S.' massive
military involvement in neighbouring Colombia, ostensibly to help the
Colombian government crack down on the illegal production of narcotics.

Many people in the region believe that the U.S. military presence is aimed
at helping the Colombian military and right-wing militias to wage a war
against the two leftist guerilla groups that have been active for more than
40 years. Chavez has maintained that he is all for finding a political
solution to the long-running conflict. Any escalation of the war would have
an adverse impact on Venezuela, which shares a long border with Colombia.
There are more than a million illegal immigrants from Colombia in Venezuela.
Besides, it is easy to shift cocoa cultivation and cocaine production from
one country to another.

After the U.S. launched its so-called war against terrorism, Chavez
expressed concern at the mounting civilian casualties in Afghanistan. He was
also among the first to condemn the September 11 terrorist attacks on the
U.S. and Venezuela was among the countries that offered to share military
intelligence with Washington. But the Bush Administration, prodded by the
Venezuelan elite, which has reason to hate Chavez, seems to be trying to
queer the pitch for the government in Caracas.

The two elite-dominated parties, which led Venezuela to the brink of ruin,
have now been constitutionally confined to the political dustbin after
voters overwhelmingly approved a new Constitution that effectively removed
their stranglehold. Armed with new powers, Chavez has gone about
implementing his campaign pledge of ushering in land reforms; the government
can, by decree, seize and distribute unproductive land. A new "energy law"
requires new ventures in the energy sector to have 51 per cent government
participation. These moves have not been appreciated by the big landowners
and businessmen, especially from North America. Wealthy Venezuelan
businessmen are said to have around $120 billion salted away in overseas
banks.

The right-wing opposition is trying to employ tactics eerily reminiscent of
the kind used in Chile in the early 1970s by forces opposed to the
government of Salvadore Allende. Sections of the army are being encouraged
to subvert democracy. Despite some erosion in middle-class support in cities
such as Caracas, Chavez remains the hero of the rural masses and most of the
working class. There is no politician in Venezuela who can match him in
popularity despite sections of the Venezuelan and U.S. media portraying him
as a leader who cosies up to so-called terrorist states such as Iraq, Cuba,
Iran and Libya.

Chavez has also been accused of backing the left-wing guerilla groups
involved in the civil war in Colombia. His request that Vladimir Ilich
Sanchez, popularly known by his nom de guerre 'Carlos the Jackal', be
repatriated to Venezuela to stand trial for terrorism is being cited as yet
another illustration that Chavez was soft on terrorism. Carlos, a citizen of
Venezuela, is currently incarcerated for life in a high-security French
prison. The majority of Venezuelans seem to be of the opinion that he will
get justice only in a Venezuelan court.

A shadowy Venezuelan group with links in the U.S., which calls itself the
"National Emergency Junta", has been placing advertisements in U.S.
newspapers demanding that Chavez either step down or be overthrown. The Far
Right in U.S. politics, which has an influential presence in the Bush
administration, seems to be orchestrating these none-too-subtle moves to
destabilise the popular government led by Chavez. The opposition parties in
Venezuela have virtually given an ultimatum to Chavez either to reverse his
recent decisions on land reforms and foreign direct investments or to
resign.

Chavez has described the opposition demands as the machinations of the
"elites of the old, corrupt political class". He has another five years to
complete his term in office. Under the new Constitution, he can seek yet
another term. From all available indications, he is going to be around for
quite some time. He is expected to be the chief guest at India's Republic
Day celebrations in 2002 in Delhi.



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