Reuters. 27 January 2002. Vietnam to Hold National Assembly Elections May 19.
HANOI -- Vietnam has chosen May 19 as the date for its next National Assembly elections, which are expected to bring about several important ministerial changes including the replacement of Prime Minister Phan Van Khai. Sunday's official Communist Party daily Nhan Dansaid the date for the five-yearly poll was fixed in a resolution of the Standing Committee of the 450-member assembly issued on Saturday. Most of the senior positions in the National Assembly are held by members of the ruling Communist Party, which retains more than 380 of its seats, and it has for long been seen as essentially a rubber stamp institution for decisions made by the Party. But while the elite Party Politburo still holds supreme power, in the past decade the assembly has become increasingly assertive and more of a forum for genuine debate. Analysts expect the election to bring the replacement of the prime minister, who is close to retirement age, and also of Planning and Investment Minister Tran Xuan Gia, who was dropped from the Communist Party Central Committee last year. Diplomats and other analysts see Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung as a favorite for the prime ministerial post. Others tipped for replacement are Foreign Minister Nguyen Dy Nien and Industry Minister Dang Vu Chu. Trade Minister Vu Khoan is expected to be promoted to deputy prime minister, retaining responsibility for trade and taking overall responsibility for foreign affairs. Diplomats see Gia's deputy Vo Hong Phuc as his likely replacement at Planning and Investment, while Agriculture Minister Le Huy Ngo is considered a possibility to take one of the four deputy prime ministerial positions. Analysts say President Tran Duc Luong, who has avoided controversy during his tenure since 1997, is not thought to be under threat. Nguyen Van An, who took over as National Assembly chairman last year after his predecessor Nong Duc Manh was promoted to the country's most powerful position -- general secretary of the Communist Party -- is expected to retain his post. Assembly candidates must be pre-vetted by the ruling Party, but the electorate is able to chose from a range of candidates. "There's still some way to go before making it a real democratic process," said a European diplomat. "But it will be interesting to see if they continue a general trend of promoting slightly younger, more able, and less Party-focused people [i.e. members more susceptible to rapid capitalist investment]." Professor Carlyle Thayer, a Vietnam expert at the Australian Defense Force Academy in Canberra, said there had been real attempts to bring in a wider spectrum of society into the assembly and to increase the percentage of non-Party candidates. "While everything is constrained, with very circumscribed choices, very carefully managed, there are upsets," he said. Broad policy guidelines were still handed down to the assembly by the Politburo and Central Committee, he said, "but finer details of law are now very hotly debated in the assembly." "So the party loses micro-management control on some occasions, the legislature gets its say, and can block or make sticking points." In its last session in December, delegates approved changes to the law on the assembly's organization, including the process by which it can launch confidence votes against senior members. The election date, a Sunday, is the anniversary of the birth of the country's late revolutionary leader Ho Chi Minh. The resolution said an ad hoc council had been set up, headed by assembly Chairman An, to oversee the poll. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Barry Stoller http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ProletarianNews
