Tracy R Reed wrote:
> Gus Wirth wrote:
>> You also have to be careful when evaluating reliability. There are a
>> lot of things that go into determining reliability figures.
> 
> Speaking only of the reliablity of the hard drives themselves the Google
> and CMU papers that came out this year about hard drive reliability were
> very interesting.
> 
>> Hard drive failures are only a small portion of the overall figure for
>> reliability for a computer. In particular, even if your drives are
>> mirrored you are only protected against a small subset of single drive
>> failures where the failure mode is non-catastrophic to other parts of
>> the system. If a drive fails by shorting the +12 to the +5 volt supply
>> (this is highly unlikely) it could take just about everything else
>> with it rendering the mirror useless.
> 
> I have had many drives die but never had a short across the bus like
> that. As you said, highly unlikely. And that sort of thing is what I
> have backup copies for. Bacula to the rescue!
> 
>> One of the biggest problems in determining reliability of anything is
>> getting a history of the item. As I've mentioned before, all the MTBF
>> (Mean Time Before Failure) you see on computer hardware are just
>> guesses because the hardware product cycle is somewhere near 9 months,
>> much shorter than the expected MTBF. So there isn't enough data
>> collected to verify the estimates, and there is no economic incentive
>> to do anything about it.
> 
> The Google and CMU papers were the best research done so far. Brief
> summary of the two: SCSI isn't any more reliable than IDE. Temperature
> doesn't affect drives as much as we thought. Chances of a multiple drive
> failure in a RAID 5 are higher than we think. They wouldn't tell us
> which vendors were more reliable than others.
> 

Did they not also cast serious doubts on the traditional bathtub failure
 distribution?

Regards,
..jim


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