IMHO This is a very penetrating analyis of the dynamics of the
US-Israel-Israel power struggle. Hajja Romi
http://www.iranaffairs.com/iran_affairs/2007/10/iran-and-israel.html Iran and
Israel - understanding the dynamics The real threat that Iran poses to
Israel is that Iran and the US may start to get along, thus undermining
Israel's strategic value to the US and creating an obstacle to Israel's
regional ambitions. Promoting emnity between the US and Iran also gives the
pro-Israeli lobby a reason to exist, even though it is contrary to broader US
interests.
By now you're quite familar with the standard trope in which Iran, the crazed
fundamentalist regime, is supposedly seeking nuclear weapons in order to pose
an 'existential' threat to Israel.
This is a convenient way to frame the issue, because among other things is
perpetuates the mythology of Israel as the underdog victim, facing down a sea
of irrationally hostile neighbors. That's why the Israeli propagandists make a
particular effort at locating and magnifying any statements from Iranian
officials that they can characterize as being threatening to Israel - for
example the alleged statement by Ahmadinejad (the New Hitler, we are told)
about "wiping out" Israel - now thoroughly debunked but still often repeated.
The mythology of Israel as the always-victim was never true of course, as even
Israeli historians now acknowledge - nor is it an accurate representation of
the Israel-Iran dynamics either.
The real threat to Israel: US-Iran engagement
What is the real nature of the threat that Iran poses to Israel? Is it that
Iran is going to drop a nuke on Israel? No. According to Trita Parsi, author of
Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran, and the United
States, Israel has often gotten along and cooperated with Iran when it suited
their interests. In fact, when AIPAC was pushing for US sanctions laws on Iran
that prohibited American companies from doing business with Iran, Israel was
busy doing business with Iran through Turkey. The danger that Iran poses to
Israel is not that Iran may one day decide to nuke Israel - the Iranians are
not about to get into a sucidal nuclear exchange with anyone - no matter how
hard the Israelis try to portray Iranians as crazed fundamentalists. Rather,
the real danger posed by Iran to Israel is that Iran and the US may start to
get along, leaving Israel out in the cold, threatening Israel's strategic value
to the US, and posing an obstacle to Israel's domination of
the Middle East. A secure, economically-stable Iran - which has the benefit of
nuclear energy to power its economy in the future and is perceived as being
technologically advanced - plus Iran's strategic position and relatively
well-educated population of 75 million potential consumers of US goods, added
to many other factors - all would pose too much of a temptation to the US to
start to warm up to Iran - especially now that the Cold War is over and
Israel's strategic utility to the US is severely diminished (assuming Israel
was ever a strategic asset during the Cold War in the first place.)
As Trita has written,
"[I]t wasnt Iran that turned the Israeli-Iranian cold war warm it was
Israel . . . The Israeli reversal on Iran was partially motivated by the fear
that its strategic importance would diminish significantly in the post-cold war
middle east if the then president (1989-97) Hashemi Rafsanjanis outreach to
the Bush Sr
administration was successful."
And so,
Israeli politicians began painting the regime in Tehran as fanatical and
irrational. Clearly, they maintained, finding an accommodation with such mad
mullahs was a non-starter. Instead, they called on the US to classify Iran,
along with Saddam Husseins Iraq, as a rogue state that needed to be
contained. The Iran-Bashing Industry
Israel's characterization of Iran as an irrational threat that has to be
contained rather than engaged has had the added benefit of providing a raison
d'etre for the hardline pro-Israeli lobby in the US.
By 1993, with the end of the Cold War and the start of the
Israeli-Palestinian peace process under Rabin, AIPAC had lost its purpose and
was in a tailspin due to a series of scandals. It had essentially broken off
from the Labor government in Israel over the peace process, and had alienated
Bush I administration too. AIPAC's swing to the hardline Right had also
alienated a good chunk of the Jewish community in the US and had raised quite a
bit of ire & controversey all around: by its attempts to impose its hawkish
views on the Washington Jewish Week; disclosure by the Village Voice in Aug 92
that a unit of AIPAC had investigated and harassed dovish Jewish peace groups;
leaked memos of how AIPAC intended to discredit figures such as Jerome Segal of
the Jewish Peace Lobby, Jim Zogby and Jesse Jackson; Rabin explicitly telling
AIPAC to back off; Shamir's conflict with Bush I over loan guarantees, etc -
all made worse by a series of other scandals and in-fighting which led to
the resignations of top AIPAC officials like Thomas Dine, David Steiner, and
Harvey Friedman... In fact in June 1993, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Yossi
Beilin explicitly stated that AIPAC was a right-wing lobby that represented
neither his government nor the views of the American Jewish public.
But then came the issue of Iran's award of a lucrative oil contract to Conoco
as an opening gesture to the US. It was a Godsend to AIPAC, which rallied hard
behind sanctions legislation along with Senator Alfonse D'Amato. With the
election of Netanyahu and Indyk's "Dual Containment" policy in ascendance,
AIPAC got back in business as never before, and they went to town over Iran,
pushing harder and harder on primary then secondary sanctions legislation. Now
they've gone completely overboard and are overtly embracing the likes of Rev
Hagee who explicitly calls for an apocalyptic war on Iran.
In short, with the end of the Cold War and the renewal of the
Palestinian-Israeli peace process, AIPAC needed a reason to exist & a "threat"
to rally around - and they found Iran. As Walt & Mearsheimer have written:
In addition to this tendency for those with more extreme views to back and
dominate key organizations in the lobby, there is another reason that many
pro-Israeli groups have moved rightward: to keep contributions flowing in. As
Waxman notes, "Many American Jewish organizations now need Israel to legitimate
their own existence. Although these organizations may have been established for
the purpose of enhancing and strengthening Israel, today Israel is vital for
their continued viability." Portraying Israel as beleaguered and vulnerable,
and issuing dire warnings about continued or growing anti-Semitism helps
maintain a high level of concern among political supporters and thus helps
ensure these organizations' continued existence. And what is the natural
conclusion of this sort of policy of "no engagement with Iran" ?
Although it makes good strategic sense for the United States and Iran to
pursue a grand bargain, and although there is plenty of suport for that policy
inside and outside of America, it is unlikely to happen anytime soon. Israel
and the lobby will almost certainly try to thwart any efforts to seriously
engage Iran before they get started, as they have consistently done since
1993...If the United States does launch an attack, it wll be doing so in part
on Israel's behalf, and the lobby will bear significant responsibility for
having pushed this dangerous policy. And it would not be in America's national
interest. So now you know.
Posted on October 06, 2007 at 01:14 PM | Permalink
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