Iran Live Blog: 25 Bahman / 14 February by MUHAMMAD SAHIMI, JOSH SHAHRYAR, DAN GEIST, TEHRAN BUREAU STAFF, and CORRESPONDENTS 14 Feb 2011 23:59
*Iran Standard Time (IRST), GMT+3:30* * 2:50 p.m. And the government is now publicly declaring no permit has been issued, contrary to the report from the central state news unit. That report and related ones are now disappearing. * *2:50 p.m.* Confirmed: The Interior Ministry has issued a permit for the Tehran march. Unconfirmed: Reports that Turkish President Abdullah Gul will join the protesters in Tehran. Unconfirmed: Reports that Gul asked the government of Iran to give the protesters the permit to demonstrate and the government succumbed to his demands. *2:40 p.m.* We're receiving reports that the number of people in Sadeghya Square is increasing by the minute. No clashes yet with the riot police who are all around. So far, just peaceful chants of "Marg bar dictator" (Down with the dictator) can be heard. Mardomak website reports <http://www.mardomak.org/blog/post/60139> that, according to eyewitnesses, all routes to Enghelab Avenue and Azadi Square have been blocked. Police, plainclothesmen, and special security forces are not letting anyone through. *2:25 p.m.* Rahe Sabz website claims activists in Isfahan and Najafabad have said that they're preparing to go out and protest today. Per CNN's Reza Sayah: "Tehran witnesses - 1000s of security forces patrolling neighborhoods, major squares & intersections." *2:15 p.m.* Details from a Reuters report<http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/14/us-iran-opposition-idUSTRE71D1RT20110214>filed 15 minutes ago: "There are dozens of police and security forces in the Vali-ye Asr Avenue...they have blocked entrances of metro stations in the area," a witness told Reuters by telephone, referring to a large thoroughfare that cuts through Tehran. Another witness said police cars with windows covered by black curtains were parked near Tehran's notorious Evin prison. "They are incapable of doing a damn thing," the hardline *Kayhan* newspaper quoted Intelligence Minister Heidar Moslehi as saying [of opposition leaders], echoing words used by revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to refer to the United States. The opposition is "guided by Iran's enemies abroad," Moslehi said. On Twitter, @madyar confirms, "Special security forces in green uniforms stationed in Valiasr intersection. 20 vans are present." *2:05 p.m.* Less than an hour to go before the planned start of the Tehran march. Here's a photo claimed to have been taken in Sadeghya Square not long ago: [image: 25BahmanClaimedSadeghya.jpg] And here's a (loud) message of support for the protesters from a Tunisian activist: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCjb7KOBk_8&feature=player_embedded @madyar tweets, "Riot police are gathering at Kargare Shomali Avenue too. The area is very busy with people." *1:55 p.m.* So far, only riot police<http://en.irangreenvoice.com/article/2011/feb/14/2767>have shown up to counter the demonstrators that have gathered in Sadeghya and the impeding protests. No sign of Basij militia or Revolutionary Guard forces as yet. Rahe Sabz reports <http://www.rahesabz.net/story/32479/> that riot police are starting to move towards Imam Hossein Square, Darvazaye Shamran Square, Ferdowsi Square, Valiasr Square and other areas where protesters might gather. They add that riot police have already gathered in Enghelab Square and that the Tehran University administration has stopped students from entering the school today. More reports of people -- in some cases entire families -- moving toward the planned protest route in Tehran. *1:45 p.m.* Dozens, perhaps hundreds, of protesters are now assembling in Sadeghya Square. Security forces are also beginning to arrive in the area. No clashes so far. The security forces are reportedly just staring at the protesters. @madyar tweets, "Security forces now present in Mohseni, Mirdamad and Vanak Squares as well as Sa'adat Abad. Down with dictator chants are being heard from Sadeghya Square." *1:20 p.m.* Rahe Sabz is reporting <http://www.rahesabz.net/story/32476/>that few riot police or other security forces are visible on Tehran's streets. People are slowly coming out of their houses and moving toward protest sites. Saham News is claiming that state employees have been offered overtime pay if they stay at their desks until 6 p.m. *1:10 p.m.* A Tehran blogger reports<http://behzad-mani.blogfa.com/post-77.aspx> : According to one police commander, around 2:00 p.m., officers from different precincts will be stationed along the demonstration route. They are particularly to be stationed in front of banks and gas stations as well public buildings. These forces are ordered TO AVOID any clash with the demonstrators and only interfere to PREVENT VIOLENCE. Anti-riot forces and Basij units are on alert and will be stationed in alleys and parking areas. The traffic police force will be focused on the major intersection of Roudaki St. and Azadi Blvd. It should be kept in mind that there is a strong possibility that the demonstrators will be attacked and shot at after the demonstration ends. It is absolutely necessary to disperse when the demonstration is done. All the bookstores and other stores in the University of Tehran district (Enghelab Square) are ordered to shut down at 2:00 p.m. On Twitter, @SheydaJahanbin reports that many people have gathered in Tehran's Sadegheya Square. Reza Sayah of CNN tweets: "100 riot police at Ferdowsi square - 50 riot police on motorbikes headed towards Azadi sq." *1:00 p.m.* From Mousavi's Facebook page<http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=496584272605> : On the day of proposed demonstrations by Mousavi and Karroubi in support for the popular uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia against dictatorship, cell phones of Mir Hossein Mousavi and Zahra Rahnavard -- Mousavi's wife -- as well as land lines of their residence all have been disconnected by government. All communication channels including internet networks of their residence have also been disconnected. Additionally since this morning security forces have blocked the alley where Mousavi's residence is located at with their cars and prevent anyone from entering or exiting. Saham News reports that Karroubi's wife, Fatemeh Karroubi, was not allowed to leave their house today. One of the two security cameras on his house's walls was destroyed last night and the other was stolen by unknown assailants. Security forces are near the house and won't allow anyone to replace the cameras. On Twitter, @madyar says there have been reports that Dr. Rahnavard was similarly barred from leaving the Mousavis' house by security forces. *12:50 p.m.* Tehran Bureau contributor homylafayette reports that the web is buzzing with stories of a protester who climbed a crane near Chahar Raheh Ghasr and hoisted a flag at around 8:30 a.m. The protester held up pictures of "martyrs" and warned authorities that they would jump if approached. Here's a photo: [image: 25BahmanCraneProtest.jpg] And a brief video: Mitra Mubasherat of CNN tweets: "About 100 riot police are stationed around Ferdowsi Square in central #Tehran today. No sign of protesters on the streets yet." *12:30 p.m.* Sources inside online hacktivist organization Anonymous confirm that they are using Distributed Denial of Services attacks to take down Iranian government websites -- Operation Iran Fax is the name they've given the endeavor. Here's the video "press release" issued a few days ago by Anonymous: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-59uJcnFlM8&feature=player_embedded Police are reportedly still absent from major streets in Tehran. *12:25 p.m.* Here's the lead headline on the website of Press TV, the English-language subsidiary of the state broadcasting network: "Egypt Army rejects protesters' demands" <http://www.presstv.ir/detail/165153.html>. The article notes that some Egyptians are "disturbed by the army's failure...to release political prisoners." Press TV does not appear to be offering any coverage of today's planned marches and the developments surrounding them, nor of the hundreds of political prisoners in the jails of the Islamic Republic -- here's the stories of a few of them, from Tehran Bureau's Muhammad Sahimi: Young Lions of the Green Movement<http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2011/01/young-lions-of-the-green-movement.html> . The headline on the number three story on the English version of the regime-aligned Mehr News Agency website reads, "Iranian MPs rally in support of Egyptians" <http://www.mehrnews.com/en/>. The story describes how "parliamentarians shouted slogans like 'God is Greatest,' 'Muslims Be United,' 'Down with the U.S., and 'Down with Israel.' Majlis speaker [Ali Larijani] in his speech said the United States should know that the regional nations want real democracy and not dependent governments which are democratic in name only." Mehr also does not appear to be offering any coverage of developments leading up to today's planned marches. On Twitter, @madyar reports that shopkeepers on Tehran's Enghelab Square have been told by security forces to close down at 3 p.m., the scheduled start time of today's march. *12:05 p.m.* We reported earlier that Mousavi's mobile phone had been disconnected. Apparently the landlines to his and wife Zahra Rahnavard's house have been cut <http://www.kaleme.com/1389/11/25/klm-47585/> as well. A police vehicle and several other cars have blocked the entrance to the street their house is on. *11:45 a.m.* The live blog is back. The Mourning Mothers group has released a statement <http://www.rahesabz.net/story/32463/> in support of the protests. They have three demands: unconditional release of all political prisoners, abolition of the death penalty, and the public prosecution of those responsible for the brutal killings in the past 32 years. They have announced that they will join today's protests. The website <http://www.irib.ir/> of the state television and radio network, Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, has been rendered inaccessible by cyber attacks. Political prisoners in Rejaee Shahr Prison in Karaj have begun a hunger strike <http://www.rahesabz.net/story/32462/> today in support of the protesters. We noted in our previous post the Tehran Bureau article The Iran 34: Journalists in Jail<http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/12/the-iran-34-journalists-in-jail.html>, based on the annual global report from the Committee to Protect Journalists. Blogger Arshama3 has provided a much more extensive list<http://arshama3.wordpress.com/2011/02/12/iran-list-of-imprisoned-journalists/>of journalists imprisoned in Iran or out on bail, awaiting sentencing. *6:45 a.m.* It's about ten minutes before sunrise over Tehran and a little over eight hours before the scheduled start of the march to Azadi Square. Things have been quiet for a while now and may be so for another couple hours, so the live blog will be resting its bleary fingers and callused eyes for a bit. Some possibly apposite reading before our break. Those who have been following along may have noted that our Tehran-based correspondents tend to be filing anonymously. For some of the reasons why, The Iran 34: Journalists in Jail<http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/12/the-iran-34-journalists-in-jail.html>provides a brief survey of the current situation, and The Plight of Iranian Journalists<http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2009/11/iran-journalism-hell.html>delivers a more detailed look at what happened to the Iranian press during the protests of 2009. And, as we consider what happens (or may happen, or may not happen) in Iran in light of events in Egypt, here is a recent look at the ways the two nations have mirrored each other -- Iran and Egypt, Twin Outsiders of the Muslim World<http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2011/02/iran-and-egypt-twin-outsiders-of-the-muslim-world.html#comment-145998720>-- and here is an essay from last April that suggests how the wheels of destiny can turn...and turn again: Let Democracy Resound<http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/04/-let-democracy-resound-by.html> . *5:15 a.m.* "For now, the only certain thing is that we will show up on time on Monday, February 14th, at 3 p.m. and will start walking toward Azadi Square. But we have to define what we want to do. I am not very comfortable with demonstrating just for demonstrating. They have the money, the guns, the religion -- the opium -- and what do we do if they start shooting at us? Do we turn the other cheek again?" A Tehran Bureau special correspondent sets the scene in the capital, as he and his two best friends sit over coffee and plan for the unknowable. For the full story, see 'Stay Together and Together Stay Strong': 3 Friends Prepare for 25 Bahman<http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2011/02/post-5.html>. *4:30 a.m.* A correspondent in Tehran writes: What will happen Monday, history will record in less than 24 hours. The atmosphere is filled by suspense over the call for demonstration. Certainly the city is not calm. There were chants of "Allah-o akbar" across Tehran. People expect something to happen. Publicly, Mr. Karroubi and Mr. Mousavi have called for a demonstration in solidarity with the people of Egypt. Nobody thinks or believes this is about Egypt or will remain focused on Egypt. No wonder that their request has been rejected as illegal. Their advisers have announced that according to Article 27 of Iran's Constitution there is no need for a permit. It must be noted that both leaders are under house arrest now. Most likely they will be prevented from attending the demonstration. [While Karroubi has been under house arrest for four days, there is no independent confirmation that Mousavi has been similarly confined. As we noted two-and-a-half hours ago, a senior adviser to the former presidential candidate says that his mobile phone has been disconnected and it has not been possible to reach him. *--Ed.*] It is interesting to note that beyond the publicly announced goal of solidarity with the Egyptian people, there is no other specific demand. There are a number of slogans for on the web, but beyond that there is no goal, at least no publicly stated goal. Right now it seems the question is not what the strategy is, it is if the crowds will gather in the streets of Tehran on Monday. In the events that followed the 2009 presidential election, the government showed that it is a fast learner indeed. New tactics were designed and more security units than ever utilized. By the time the Green Movement called for a mass demonstration on the anniversary of the Revolution last year, government forces were well prepared to prevent crowds from assembling. In many cases, people were dispersed as they exited metro stations. Any small gathering was attacked and the mass demonstration did not take place. Now many in the Green Movement hope that the recent events in the Middle East have shifted the paradigm in Tehran. They have no doubt that the government will use force. However, they are hoping that the suppression will not be as brutal as before. This hope is based on the fact that although the Iranian government does not care about global opinion, it cares a great deal about its image on the streets of the Middle East. And the eyes of region are on Tehran. The belief is that as the dictators of Egypt and Tunisia have departed and there is a chance for friendly governments in these countries, Iran's political establishment will not risk losing its stature and prestige among the region's Muslim population. The Green Movement leaders hope that this perspective will soften the government reaction to Monday's demonstration. In other words, the Green Movement is probing for an opportunity. The fact that Turkish President Abdullah Gul is in Tehran on an official visit has boosted their morale. The word is that the Iranian government will not risk violence in front of so many dignitaries and reporters. President Gul's presence in Tehran also serves as a reminder to the Iranian leadership that Turkey will gladly fill in any void created by a decline in Iran's influence in the region. If the Green Movement is right in its assessment, then it might be able to take the initiative back from the government on Monday. However, there is little doubt that Mr. Karroubi and Mr. Mousavi have gambled on an assumption that might well prove wrong. *4:05 a.m.* While the official request made by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi to the Interior Ministry for a parade permit was rebuffed -- and no such permit requests were made for the many other cities where demonstrations are planned -- there have been arguments about whether any marches that do take place will be legal under Iranian law. Pro-reform figures have turned to Article 27 of the Iranian Constitution to support their contention that the peaceful demonstrations they plan are, indeed, completely legal whether or not permits are issued. Here is the text of Article 27, in translation: Public gatherings and marches may be freely held, provided arms are not carried and that they are not detrimental to the fundamental principles of Islam. 'Stay Together and Together Stay Strong': 3 Friends Prepare for 25 Bahman by SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT in Tehran 14 Feb 2011 05:009 Comments<http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2011/02/post-5.html#disqus_thread> *[ dispatch ]* In the last two days, so many things have happened that it would require a large team of analysts to evaluate the causes and the effects. The first thing that completely blew my mind was a short news item on the national radio this Saturday that we are close to the "day that the Imam Mahdi [the Messiah] was elected a Shia leader." The announcer was congratulating the people on the "holy" occasion. Well, for many this may just be another radio announcement from a Shia radio station. But this is the first time in my life that I ever heard such a news bulletin. At least I am not alone. Nader, my friend and comrade, called me in the afternoon and jokingly congratulated me on the blessed event. He then asked, "Now what else would this regime use to dilute the importance of the real events to come?" I replied, "That is smart. Make up a nonexistent event, then advertise it through the national media. Wow, this is an interesting way of redirecting the attention of the average Joe." On the other end of the line, Nader laughed and said, "I think Goebbels can learn a thing or two from these guys. Now the next thing you may hear is that the government is doling out gifts for people who get married during the next few days...." I shook my head. "How else to use religion to fool the population? What was that phrase of Lenin's about religion <http://sfr-21.org/lenin-religion.html>?" I chuckled. We then decided to meet near Mr. Karroubi's residence in the evening and see what was going on. Nader and I met with Mahtab, our other friend, in the late afternoon but before reaching Mr. Karroubi's house we received a call. "Don't come near here, the house is under attack. They want to arrest Mr. Karroubi. Go and hide wherever you can." Then just silence on the other end of the line. "With all of these arrests and attempted detentions, we have to add fear to the tactics of our nemesis," said Mahtab in an angry mood. "What do we do now?" Nader wondered. I suggested that we sit down in a coffee shop and recap. As we reached our favorite coffee shop on Bahonar Avenue, we turned off our mobile phones and took the batteries out so as not to be tracked by the authorities. "So much for the international support of human rights. The oil money is so attractive that we have to disconnect from the rest of the world since Nokia Siemens sold mobile tracking and eavesdropping technology to these thugs<http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2010/08/suing-repressions-service-provider.html>," Nader shouted as he threw the batteries to the back seat of my car, nearly hitting Mahtab. We found a quiet corner, sat down, and ordered our coffee. "We have to be smart. Don't we boast about how intelligent Iranians are all the time? Now why are we confused? What do we do next? If they arrest Karroubi tonight, then Mousavi will be next" -- I was babbling on like a chatterbox. "Recap, isn't that what we are supposed to be doing?" Mahtab interjected. A murmur, but commanding. He continued, "For now, the only certain thing is that we will show up on time on Monday, February 14th, at 3 p.m. and will start walking toward Azadi Square. But we have to define what we want to do. I am not very comfortable with demonstrating just for demonstrating. They have the money, the guns, the religion -- the opium -- and what do we do if they start shooting at us? Do we turn the other cheek again?" Nader was anxious. I tried to calm him down: "We will just give them a Valentine's Day gift." Mahtab was not amused: "And then they will announce on TV that a group of Westernized yuppie sissies tried to promote decadent Western culture on the day that Imam Mahdi was chosen to be the 12th Imam of the Shia world." I replied, "I was just joking, but don't you think that we have to define things at least for ourselves? Is this a struggle between Islamic radicalism and secularism or can we even define the struggle other than that of a democratic movement yearning for a free civil society?" Nader pulled himself together and said, "We got outsmarted today, but this is a single battle in a war. The fact of the matter is that the people in the security apparatus of the regime are as intelligent as the opposition in the movement and that makes this struggle ever more challenging. There is, however, one basic fact that has so far separated these two opposing groups and that is violence. We the Greens, as a whole, have until now committed to 'civil disobedience" and 'nonviolence,' whereas the regime has committed every imaginable deed to stop the movement, ranging from house arrest, prohibiting people to leave the country, branding them persona non grata, imprisonment, torture, rape, assassination, execution, and even gunning people down in bright daylight. There is no limit to what this regime does to stay in power -- neither Islamic teaching in the Qur'an, which clearly describes how to deal with enemies during a war, nor Iranian cultural norms, both of which prescribe a great degree of tolerance for the enemy. And here we are not even talking about an invading army or a religious war with infidels. We are speaking about ordinary Iranians, the majority of whom are Muslims, that want nothing more than to reform the system through a nonviolent movement." Mahtab continued, "The government of the Islamic Republic of Iran is neither Islamic nor Iranian. It is a ruthless, profit-minded dictatorship that relies on oil revenues to control an ailing economy and fund bandit militia forces, both in Iran and elsewhere. Its only rigid and focused goal is survival. All other elements attached to it are propaganda. It uses Islam and superstitions to control, manipulate, and distract the masses, the average religious Joes. It uses money and big projects to dilute international coalitions -- and since money, greed, and profit are the basic values for most of the capitalist world, there is always a company or even a country that falls for this trap. It uses international laws and norms whenever it is profitable for them (i.e., the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty protocol) and finally it uses the lack of transparency to avoid being caught." "And the Turks are coming here tomorrow to make business with the demagogues," I said in a bitter voice. "So how do you fight a smart, well-financed, indefinable, fluid enemy that uses any means to survive? I think everyone in the opposition has to be thinking about this issue, right?" Mahtab smiled: "The biggest fear that the regime has is the same challenge that we have -- the movement is as intelligent as the regime is...with one exception: The power of the Green Movement is the perseverance, dedication, and persistence of its members. We believe in something righteous." A bit annoyed by the intellectualism of the conversation, I said, "Righteousness does not work by itself. We have to make coalition with similar-minded people, groups, and countries and build power, force. For that, we have to define common goals and interests, a coherent action plan, and attract international support, and not just in the intellectual communities but in the financial world." As we left the coffee shop, and before we put the batteries back in our mobile phones, Nader said, "For now, the only thing that we can do is to stay together and together stay strong. Don't forget 'Allah-o akbar' at 10:30 at night. See you on Valentine's Day." And with hopeful smiles on our faces we departed. 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