Patrick Cockburn: This bizarre plot goes against all that is known of Iran's 
intelligence service

The claim that Iran employed a used-car salesman 
with a conviction for cheque fraud to hire Mexican gangsters to 
assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington goes against all that is 
known of Iran's highly sophisticated intelligence service. The confident 
announcement of this bizarre plot 
by the US Attorney General Eric Holder sounds alarmingly similar to 
Secretary of State Colin Powell's notorious claim before the UN in 2003 
that the US possessed irrefutable evidence Saddam Hussein was developing.

The problem is that the US government has very 
publicly committed itself to a version of events, however unlikely, 
that, if true, would be a case for war against Iran. It will be 
difficult for the US to back away from such allegations now.
Could the accusations be true? The plot as described in court was puerile, 
easy to discover and unlikely to succeed. A Drug Enforcement Agency 
(DEA) informant in Corpus Christi, Texas, with supposed links to Los 
Zetas gangsters in Mexico, said he had been approached by an Iranian 
friend of his aunt called Mansour Arbabsiar to hire the Zetas to make 
attacks. A link is established with the Quds force of the Iranian 
Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
None of this 
makes sense. The IRGC is famous for making sure that responsibility for 
its actions can never be traced to Iran. It usually operates through 
proxies. Yet suddenly here it is sending $100,000 (£63,000) from a known IRGC 
bank account to hire assassins in Mexico. The beneficiaries from 
such a plot are evident. There will be those on the neo-con right and 
extreme supporters of Israel who have long been pressing for a war with 
Iran. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have been 
vociferously asserting that Iran is orchestrating Shia pro-democracy 
protests, but without finding many believers in the rest of the world. 
Their claims are now likely to be taken more seriously in Washington. 
There will be less pressure on countries like Bahrain to accommodate 
their Shia populations.
In Iraq, the US and 
Britain were always seeing Iran's hidden hand supporting their 
opponents, but they could never quite prove it. It was also true, to a 
degree never appreciated in the US, that Washington and Tehran were at 
one in getting rid of Saddam Hussein and installing a Shia government. 
There were points in common and a struggle for influence. The same has 
been true in Afghanistan, where Iran was delighted to see the anti-Shia 
Taliban overthrown in 2001.
Some Iran 
specialists suggest there might be a "rogue faction" within the 
Revolutionary Guard, but there is no evidence such a body exists or of a 
convincing motive for it to be associating with Mexican gangsters.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/patrick-cockburn-this-bizarre-plot-goes-against-all-that-is-known-of-irans-intelligence-service-2369657.html

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