On 25 Aug 2010 at 13:30, Damian Walsh wrote:
> That's interesting. However, did they do the same exercise last year and if
> so how close were they?
>
> Damian
>
I've now had a reply from SImon:
Accuracy is always tricky. Yes they were accurate to a point but there will
always be
surprises. However, in the long term it was pretty good. There is a document
on our
website showing how we performed during the World Cup using the same
methodology.
If we look at the Premier League for this season, we predicted a two horse
race and nothing
has happened to change this. The likelihood of winning the title is shown in
the graph below
which has been plotted since the beginning of August. United went above
Chelsea when
they beat them in the Community Shield but dropped back below after last
weekend's draw
at Fulham.
[The graph I can't include as the list won't take it but currently it
shows Chelsea on just
under 50%, ManU on about 40%, Arsenal just over 5% and then Liverpool,
Spurs and
Man City from 3% down.]
He went on:
I'm not entirely happy with the way it works for divisions outside the top
flight so there
is not a way of seeing the predictions made on these divisions.
However, you can see information on this on http://www.euroclubindex.com and
there
is also the latest ranking on the site.
The website only includes predictions for the Netherlands and France (just
for you
Damian!) but you can see their Euro Club Index as well as how they fared
with their
World Cup predictions (not bad!)
You can get some other stuff from various parts of their website but a lot
is closed.
Remember Infostrada is a commercial organization selling the info so mostly
it's
customers subscribing and paying for it.
guy
> On Sat, Jul 31, 2010 at 9:11 AM, Guy Thornton
> <[email protected]>wrote:
>
> > Infostrada is the sports stats agency which you've probably heard of or
> > come across (they get
> > mentioned regularly by users such as papers or the BBC in live text
> > broadcasts. They have
> > become, in a few years, the leading supplier of sports stats and a friend
> > has been with them
> > since the beginning.
> >
> > They have built up a club coeffincent for all (top) european clubs based on
> > results over the
> > last seasons. For the start of the european seasons they have produced
> > predicted league
> > tables for all the top divisions in each europea coutries including lower
> > divisions on some, ie
> > Germany they cover the first three Bundesliga and for England all four
> > divisions.
> >
> > For the championship they've got Leeds down as finishing 19th.
> > Okay it's purely a stats thing and I would have prefffered a little higher
> > but I'll settle for that. It's
> > aboe the relegation zone and means we can consolidate and I wasn't
> > expecting promotion, or
> > even play-offs, this season.
> >
> > guy
> >
> >
> >
> >
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