Think I said just that somewhere (twatter I think), 12 more wins should do
it....
Nick
On Friday, December 28, 2018, 5:53:52 PM EST, Robert Heath
<[email protected]> wrote:
How funny!
I was just about to post to the list the results of my own analysis,
conducted last night at 4 am when I couldn't sleep.
I looked up the # of points achieved by the 2nd place team in the last 10
seasons. The highest was 93 (twice) and the lowest an incredibly jammy 79
by Hull. The average is 88, but if you take out Hull's ridiculous outlier,
it becomes 89. Since we are Leeds, we all know we will need to do better
than that, so yeah I agree that 90 wood seem to be a realistic target.
Here's an interesting stat though. If you look at the # of pts by the team
finishing 3rd each season, the promotion cutoff total is often reduced. Eg
last year Cardiff went up with 90, but the 3rd place team got 88, so 89
would still have been OK for Cardiff. On that basis, the pts needed in each
of the last 10 seasons, working back, have been..........89 - 86 - 89 - 87
- 86 - 78 - 87 - 81 - 80 - 81.........and the average is 84.4.
I reckon if we can win 12 of our last 22 games we'll be up.
And don't forget, of the 5 other teams in the top 6, we have already played
4 of them away (3 wins, 1 defeat.)
On Fri, Dec 28, 2018 at 9:23 PM Altruistic1964 via Leedslist <
[email protected]> wrote:
> Also been number crunching. Since the Championship came into being, on
> average the Champions have attained 93 points, second 87 points and a play
> off place 74 points. So all looking very good. I too am trying to find
> solace in statistics....
>
> Sent from my Xperia by Sony smartphone
>
> ---- Simon McNally wrote ----
>
> >Evening
> >Been trying to convince myself that this is going to be our year and have
> been trying to come up with some numbers to support it!
> >Points required : I think 90 points is a reasonable amount to be sure of
> promotion ( although I can hear the announcers on sky saying “Leeds finish
> third with a record haul for third place”).
> >
> >First half of the season : 48 points.
> >
> >This leaves 42 required for promotion - i reckon 11 wins and 9 draws.
> >A win against Blackburn reduces it to 10 wins 9 draws.
> >
> >Comparison to first half : I think another way of looking at it is to
> compare results in second half to first half. All the same results we
> finish on 96 points, 6 more then required. A win against Blackburn puts us
> +3 compared to first half for a total of 99, 9 more than required. Hull
> tomorrow is important (as they all are) , a win keeps us on pace for 99
> whereas a draw puts us on for 97. Forest on New Year’s Day is interesting-
> we drew at ER so a draw would put us on pace for 99 still whereas a win
> puts us up by 2.
> >Also makes WBA home perhaps less key - anything better than loss
> represents progress!
> >I think the first half of the season contained harder fixtures- Millwall
> away plus WBA, Norwich, Blades, Derby away.
> >I’m already at the stage where I’m terrified just watching but trying to
> use numbers to calm my nerves!
> >To my mind the major factor is Bielsa. We have the best manager in the
> division and if anyone can lead us through to glory it’s him!
> >
> >On and on!
> >
> >S
> >
> >PS Blackburn game reminded me so much of Hull game in 1990. Is that an
> omen?
> >
> >
> >Sent from my iPhone
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> >RIP Jimmy WAC-COE
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