On Sat, Nov 15, 2008 at 5:19 PM, Edward K. Ream <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> 4. Wait-and-see policies implicitly presume the climate is roughly a
> first-order linear system with a short time constant, rather than a
> complex dynamical system
> with long delays, multiple positive feedbacks, and nonlinearities that
> may cause abrupt, costly, and irreversible regime changes.
This single statements starkly illustrates what is at stake in this
debate: the continued viability of human civilization. It shows why
reasoning from the past ("the world hasn't changed much, so why
worry?) will lead to grossly erroneous conclusions. It implies the
extreme urgency of taking action *now*, *before* the horror show
becomes apparent. Actually, the horror show is already happening.
Crichton had it exactly backwards: the "alarmism" of climatologists
has been fully justified for more than a few decades. Society's lack
of response to fully-informed alarms is simply cause for more alarm.
Anyone who believes otherwise at this late date is a pure fool.
Edward
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