On Jun 12, 8:53 am, "Edward K. Ream" <[email protected]> wrote:

> Folks, this is too important a question for hand waving.  Or hope.

I asked the folks at #git and got a good answer.

The probability of a collision is related to the so-called "birthday
attack":
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_attack

QQQ
Specifically, if a function f(x) yields any of H different outputs
with equal probability and H is sufficiently large, then we expect to
obtain a pair of different arguments x1 and x2 with f(x1) = f(x2)
after evaluating the function for about 1.25 \cdot \sqrt H different
arguments on average.
QQQ

The sha-1 key has 160 bits so the probabilities will fall between the
128-bit and 256-bit entries in the table.

As you can see from the table, with a 128-bit key, it would take 4.8 ×
10**29 hashes before the probability of a collision rises above
10**-18.  The odds are even better (that is lower) for a 160 bit key.

It appears that this is a complete answer to my question.  Any
comments?  Corrections?

Edward
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